CONFRONTATION BETWEEN BEMBA MILITIA AND

C O N F I D E N T I A L KINSHASA 000702 SIPDIS SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 05/04/2016 TAGS: PGOV MARR CG SUBJECT: CONFRONTATION BETWEEN BEMBA MILITIA AND PRESIDENTIAL GUARD Classified By: A/DCM MSanderson, reasons 1.4 b/d. ¶1. (C) There were some tense moments in Kinshasa April 29-May 1 as what began as a minor confrontation between elements of Vice President Jean-Pierre Bemba's MLC militia and President Kabila's "Presidential Guard," the GSSP, threatened to escalate. ¶2. (C) For the last several months Bemba has quietly and consistently augmented the presence of MLC forces in and near Kinshasa. The bulk -- estimated at almost 3,000, well in excess of the "personal protective forces" allowed each ex-belligerent under the terms of the Sun City Accord -- are at a field site beyond N'Djili airport. The MLC elements are positioned such that they could be said to be there either to protect Bemba's normal route to and from his "weekend retreat" outside Kinshasa or, in more sinister scenarios, to control the airport or the populous zone of Mesina. While the presence of this large force is an open secret, all the members of the transition government have refrained from comment, possibly to avoid provoking the volatile Bemba or, in the case of the Presidency, to divert attention from the continued existence of the much larger GSSP (still totaling almost 15,000 nationwide and about 7,000 in Kinshasa). ¶3. (C) The evening of April 28 PolCouns began to receive calls about threats supposedly being made by at least some GSSP forces stationed at N'Djili airport to "ambush and kill" Bemba when he next passed the airport. (Bemba had left Kinshasa that same evening to spend time at his country place before returning to town April 30 to attend funeral services for the son of the Minister of Budget, an MLC member and Secretary General of the party.) The GSSP threats apparently SIPDIS arose in response to comments made by MLC troops to FARDC forces stationed in Kinshasa denigrating the courage of the GSSP, who had "not had the guts" to fire their weapons during an earlier, and ostensibly minor, altercation with MLC elements April 27. Presidency officials took the GSSP threats against Bemba sufficiently seriously to dispatch Air Force Commander General John Numbi and some of his personal forces to N'Djili airport April 29 to "take command" of the GSSP troops stationed there. ¶4. (C) In the meantime, however, Bemba called Kabila (according to both MLC and PPRD sources) and essentially said that if Kabila wanted him dead "he should have the guts to pull the trigger" himself. While reportedly not replying directly to Bemba, Kabila did tell a close aide that if Bemba wanted a war he could have one (an unusually bellicose statement from the normally laid-back Kabila). Vice President Azarias Ruberwa (president of the RCD-G) mediated between Kabila and Bemba and successfully talked both men off the ledge. Bemba reportedly has agreed to "re-station" about 500 of his forces, and 6 of the 8 GSSP commanding officers at the airport have been reassigned. ¶5. (C) Comment: There is a further, and potentially even more troubling, element to this story. Both the Minister of Interior and the National Security Advisor told PolCouns their biggest concern was possible coordinated action between Bemba's troops and UDPS "militants" in a scenario which would have had Bemba's troops causing a disruption at or near the airport to draw a response by Kinshasa security forces (and probably MONUC as well),while UDPS militants would "target" some government offices and embassies for rock-throwing and other disturbances. Given that both the Minister and the Advisor are PPRD, their information could be biased. However, rumors have been rampant that Bemba is seeking an "alliance" with the UDPS, since he is increasingly convinced that his presidential campaign will not bear fruit. The disturbing possibility is that this was a "dry run" for a post-electoral scenario. In any case, the continued presence both of the ill-disciplined GSSP and Bemba's militia will pose an ongoing problem as tensions escalate in the run-up to elections. End comment. DOUGHERTY