PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE PROFILE: SENATOR ANATOLE

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 KINSHASA 000699

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 05/04/2016
TAGS: PGOV PINR KDEM CG
SUBJECT: PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE PROFILE: SENATOR ANATOLE
MATUSILA


Classified By: A/DCM MSanderson, reasons 1.4 b/d.


1. (C) PolCouns met May 2 with presidential aspirant, and
current Senator, Anatole Matusila. Matusila is one of about a
dozen serious candidates (among the 33 on the list) for the
presidential post. A well-liked man, Matusila usually is
characterized as "moral" and "honest," and bills himself as
the informal candidate of the Catholic Church. (Note: The
Church has not officially endorsed a candidate, but Cardinal
Frederic Etsou has provided a list of characteristics
defining a candidate who in the church's view would merit
attention. Interestingly, the characteristics provided seem
to exclude, for various reasons, most of the candidates who
are members of the current government. End Note.)
Refreshingly realistic, Matusila admits that he doesn't think
he can win alone, and for that reason is working to head a
"moral coalition" which would include other candidates. The
members of this coalition essentially would "pool" their
votes to ensure his, Matusila's, victory in a second-round
runoff against (most likely) current President Kabila.
PolCouns explored Matusila's presidential vision regarding
security, economics and politics.

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Security: Dialog Is the Answer
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2. (C) Acknowledging that security is the single biggest
issue for all Congolese, but particularly those in the East,
Matusila said it would of course be essential to convince the
FDLR to leave the DRC. New avenues of dialog should be opened
up, he said, perhaps through invoking the expanded
involvement of the Catholic Church. He admitted, with clear
distaste, that "some sort" of military option might be
needed, and said that he has been told already several times
by residents of South Kivu that immediate military action is
the only means by which to force the FDLR out of Congo.
Still, he would prefer to convince FDLR elements to return
peacefully, rather than perpetuate a cycle of violence. Much
more and better training would be required for the future
Congolese military, which should be placed more directly
under the control of officers who already have benefited from
foreign military training in any country. The military could
be as small as 50,000, Matusile said, as long as it was
well-trained.

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Economics: More Foreign Assistance Needed
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3. (C) In the economic arena Matusila favors privatization,
including of Congo's parastatals, and envisions a program of
regional development which would, for instance, support:
agro-business in Bandundu and Bas Congo; mining in the
Kasais, Katanga, the Kivus and Orientale province; and
forestry in Equateur. He is an unabashed fan of federalism,
with attendant redivision of revenue, ensuring that
eventually the provinces keep 60% of all revenue and 40%
would go to Kinshasa (a mirror reversal of the current
proposal, itself considered almost revolutionary by some).
Foreign assistance would be needed in vast amounts, however,
to address Congo's infrastructure, since the scope of the
problem far exceeds, he said, anything which the private
sector could be expected to handle. The central government
should also guarantee loans to small Congolese businesses to
provide a form of "seed capital" to jump-start legitimate
economic development.

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Politics: Smaller Is Better
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4. (C) Consistent with his federalist bent, Matusila favors a
smaller government in Kinshasa. He would have a maximum of
three State Ministers and twelve Ministers. The major policy
objective of his new government would be to ensure full
cooperation and coordination between Kinshasa and the
provinces to devolve authority to the provinces.
International assistance will be needed to help "train" the
new generation of politicians, particularly in the provincial
parliaments, to try to reduce the potential for chaos. In a
similar vein, one of his most difficult choices would be the
post of President of the National Assembly, since the
Assembly likely could prove fractious with so many
independents and so few established political parties.


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Comment
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5. (C) Matusila, who speaks in a deep voice and measured
cadence, projects the image of a sage man, white-haired and
experienced. He -- or someone -- clearly has given some
thought to important campaign planks. If he truly is the
Church's candidate (which isn't clear at the moment),he
could be worth watching as the race really gets under way.
DOUGHERTY