GUEHENNO ASSESSES DRC POLITICAL LANDSCAPE

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 KINSHASA 000467 SIPDIS SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 03/20/2016 TAGS: PGOV KPKO KDEM CG SUBJECT: GUEHENNO ASSESSES DRC POLITICAL LANDSCAPE REF: KINSHASA 460 Classified By: PolOff CBrown, reasons 1.4 b/d. ¶1. (U) UN Undersecretary General for Peacekeeping Operations Jean-Marie Guehenno completed his 9-day visit to the DRC with a press briefing March 15, urging the Congolese and their political leaders to continue moving towards free and democratic elections. Guehenno, on his fifth trip to DRC with the UN's peacekeeping division, said he was "surprised by the immense hope" of the Congolese people and expressed his desire that the DRC's upcoming elections will unfold in a climate of "trust and inclusiveness." During his stay, Guehenno met with a host of political leaders, including President Joseph Kabila, Vice Presidents Azarias Ruberwa and Jean-Pierre Bemba, as well as opposition leader Etienne Tshisekedi of the Union for Democracy and Social Progress SIPDIS (UDPS) (reftel). Guehenno also traveled to several cities in the interior to inspect MONUC forces and to meet with various civil society actors. ¶2. (U) In his departure press conference, Guehenno said elections were a "starting point" and not a "magic formula" for addressing the DRC's problems. He urged the Congolese to concentrate on the construction of a "new country" with democratic institutions, transparent governance and responsive civil service, adding that such work would take time to accomplish. Guehenno also said MONUC and the international community were fully committed to seeing elections take place in the DRC in 2006. ¶3. (U) Guehenno characterized his meeting with Tshisekedi as "a very constructive encounter." Guehenno said he explained to the UDPS President that reopening the voter registration process was not possible and would further delay the electoral process, as indicated by the Independent Electoral Commission (CEI). Regarding Tshisekedi's claim that UDPS supporters would be left out of the political process because they had not registered (at the request of Tshisekedi himself),Guehenno said that with nearly 26 million registered voters, it appeared "unlikely" that many Congolese had failed to register. Guehenno delivered a similar message to UDPS leaders and civil society actors in Mbuji-Mayi, the UDPS stronghold in Eastern Kasai province. ¶4. (U) Guehenno addressed security issues facing the DRC during the upcoming elections period, as well as the urgent 
need for security sector reform. Guehenno had confirmed on March 8 that MONUC will deploy a battalion of peacekeepers from Benin to northern Katanga to assist the Armed Forces of the DRC (FARDC) in dealing with Mai-Mai insurgents. Guehenno welcomed the idea of a European Union force to provide security during the elections to augment existing police and military forces from MONUC and the DRC. ¶5. (C) In a private March 14 meeting with the Ambassador Guehenno expressed a substantially less sunny view of developments, worrying about Transition and elections prospects. The Ambassador identified three main categories of identifiable threats: political crises; security-sector issues arising from an inadequately integrated, trained, and supported FARDC; and destabilizing threats arising from armed groups primarily located in eastern DRC. Guehenno concurred that all hold the potential for disaster, as illustrated by the current threat of RCD-Goma withdrawal from the Transition process, and recent unrest in North Kivu from insurgent troops associated with renegade General Nkunda. Guehenno and the Ambassador also agreed, however, that all can be managed, particularly if the international community stays actively engaged. Neither Guehenno nor the Ambassador expressed optimism that Tshisekedi would ultimately participate in elections given his list of preconditions, public statements notwithstanding. UN sources later informed the Ambassador and Emboffs that Guehenno's subsequent meeting with Tshisekedi in fact had not gone particularly well, with Tshisekedi showing no signs of flexibility in his basic position. ¶6. (C) The Ambassador also stressed to Guehenno that it is important for DPKO with MONUC to begin to prepare now for MONUC's post-election plan, specifically in view of the current September 30 expiration of MONUC's mandate and the anticipated Security Council debate regarding renewal. The Ambassador opined that it will be important to have a reasonable plan to present to the UNSC to include MONUC budget reductions while retaining essential functions for an as-yet undefined additional period of time. Guehenno KINSHASA 00000467 002 OF 002 acknowledged the point without substantive comment. ¶7. (SBU) Comment: Guehenno's visit was useful, and his public statements helpful to reiterate important themes regarding the importance of elections, support for the Independent Electoral Commission, and determination to see the election process through on a timely basis. Guehenno's trip -- bookended by visits from the UN's top humanitarian agencies earlier in March and SYG Kofi Annan who arrives March 22 -- also shows the intensity of the UN's focus as the DRC moves into the final phase of its transition period. End comment. MEECE