MINISTER OF PLAN THAMBWE-PRSP, THEN POLITICS

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 KINSHASA 000304 SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 02/23/2016 TAGS: PGOV ECON EFIN CG MONUC SUBJECT: MINISTER OF PLAN THAMBWE-PRSP, THEN POLITICS REF: KINSHASA 0292 Classified By: Ambassador Roger Meece. Reasons 1.4 (b/d). ¶1. (C) The Ambassador hosted Minister of Plan Alexis Thambwe for lunch February 9 to discuss the current economic and political situation in the country. In follow-up to the recent IMF mission (reftel) and concerns focused on the GDRC,s compliance with the current IMF reform program and HIPC Initiative commitments, the Ambassador asked Thambwe about his current priorities. Thambwe confirmed that the overdue Poverty Reduction Strategy Paper (PRSP) is his top immediate priority, with Plan as the lead Ministry for the project. Thambwe acknowledged that the current preliminary draft was far from satisfactory in terms of overall quality of preparation and thoroughness. He asserted that it is his intention to have a satisfactory PRSP completed by the end of March, one that would meet both GDRC and IMF priorities. He expressed confidence that this could be done. Thambwe confirmed the Ambassador,s understanding that the GDRC has significant multilateral debt payments scheduled to come due in the latter half of CY 2007, adding an additional point of pressure to satisfactory and timely compliance with IMF program and HIPC program conditions. ¶2. (C) The Ambassador strongly encouraged Thambwe to complete the PRSP project on time, noting the potential negative consequences next year should the PRSP not be up and running, even if the GDRC complied with other aspects of its IMF program. (Note: 2006 had been the original target date for the GDRC to reach its HIPC completion point. One condition, however, is an approved PRSP to be implemented for at least a full year prior to completion point. In practice, this means the GDRC can achieve its completion point at the earliest around mid-2007, pending approval and implementation of the pending PRSP. End note.) Thambwe agreed, but somewhat surprisingly noted that "some" colleagues in the Transition government (Comment: presumably also members of Jean-Pierre Bemba,s MLC party. End comment) had privately opined that it would be just as well to let things slip, leaving the elected successor government to confront the resulting problems. Thambwe said he utterly rejected such thinking. ¶3. (C) Thambwe noted that he considers the PRSP his sole remaining major project as Minister. He confided that once the PRSP is completed, he intends to inform MLC party president Jean-Pierre Bemba that he will consider his work as Minister essentially done, and that, further, he will not campaign on behalf of Bemba in the forthcoming elections. Thambwe added that he fully expects this will produce a difficult confrontation with Bemba and Thambwe,s resignation or expulsion from the MLC. ¶4. (C) Expounding on his view of the DRC,s current political environment, Thambwe outlined his own political strategy to gain a majority of allies from his home province Maniema in the provincial legislature. Per Thambwe,s scenario this would permit him to at minimum exercise a great deal of influence for the selection of the province,s new Governor and national Senate representation, both to be chosen by provincial legislatures under the terms of the new DRC constitution. Thambwe added that he has been conducting extensive talks with President Kabila, whom he fully expects to win the Presidency. Thambwe said that he has strongly advised Kabila that politically he will need a Prime Minister coming from western DRC, and the logical candidate is current National Assembly President Olivier Kamitatu (Comment: Another MLC member who has also had a very public falling-out with Bemba. End comment). Thambwe said he has also advised Kabila that current Vice President (and RCD-Goma President) Ruberwa should be assured a prominent ministerial post in the new government, ideally in Thambwe,s view the Justice ministry, to help promote national cohesion and inclusivity. Thambwe continued with various observations and suggestions, clearly reflecting a good deal of prior analysis. Among the most interesting was his expressed confidence that RCD-Goma Vice President Serufuli will most certainly win the Governorship of his province (Comment: even though Thambwe is not a Serufuli ally. End comment). Thambwe opined that veteran UDPS president and opposition leader Tshisekedi would be unable to bring himself to comply with the election process conditions, and thus would be unlikely to run as a Presidential candidate. In any event, however, Tshisekedi could not win majority support outside of his base support in the Kasai provinces, and among roughly half of the Kinshasa electorate. ¶5. (C) The Ambassador asked what party affiliation Thambwe would adopt for his political activities, given his anticipated formal break with Bemba. Thambwe provided a vague response, with an implication that he may form his own party. Responding to another question, Thambwe said that he does not believe Bemba has a good understanding of how weak Bemba,s political position has become, nor even that Thambwe is on the verge of breaking with him. Thambwe observed that Bemba,s well-known big ego often clouds his political judgment. ¶6. (C) Comment: Thambwe is a rather wealthy long-time veteran of Zaire/DRC politics, and appeared confident and at ease with his current position and political plans. Originally one of the founding members of the RCD at the beginning of the war period in 1998, he left the party (along with Jose Endundo) as he became increasingly uncomfortable with the party,s close ties to Rwanda. He joined (also with Endundo) the MLC, likely less out of any conviction or loyalty to Bemba, and more as a convenient vehicle to maintain a stake in the political process. Now the time has come to move on, as Bemba,s ship seems to be sinking. His break from Bemba,s camp will provide a further blow to Bemba,s faltering campaign. Smooth, polished, and professional, Thambwe will likely emerge in some prominent role in the new post-election government as a de facto ally of Kabila, even if not formally a member of Kabila,s PPRD party. Despite Thambwe,s understandable preoccupation with politics in this pre-electoral period, it is encouraging that he is also focused on producing as Minister an acceptable PRSP, a document that will be critical for the DRC,s medium- and long-term economic health. End comment. MEECE