GROWING ANGOLAN MISTRUST OF RWANDA?

C O N F I D E N T I A L KINSHASA 000195 SIPDIS SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 02/06/2016 TAGS: PREL AO RW CG EU SUBJECT: GROWING ANGOLAN MISTRUST OF RWANDA? Classified By: Ambassador Roger Meece. Reasons 1.4 (b/d). ¶1. (C) During a February 1 dinner for visiting Belgian Foreign Minister De Gucht, the Angolan Ambassador, Mawete Joao-Batista, made several interventions conveying mistrust of Rwandan government intentions and motives in the region. Joao-Batista is dean of the diplomatic corps in Kinshasa, and a member of the MPLA, Angola's ruling party. He is generally viewed as well-informed about developments in both capitals. ¶2. (C) While speaking in measured tones appropriate to the occasion, Joao-Batista nonetheless repeatedly spoke up questioning the GOR's interests and activities. He speculated, for example, about possible Rwandan involvement or support for recent security problems in North Kivu province, and underscored past Kigali ties to dissident Congolese officers Nkunda and Mutebusi (note: both now subject to DRC arrest warrants). At another point, the Dean implied that successful DRC elections would not serve Rwanda's interests. When there was discussion, primarily among European Ambassadors and Belgian MFA officials regarding the proposal for a European Union standby military force for the DRC, Joao-Batista wondered about possible unspecified negative reaction(s) by the GOR to establishment of such a force. He opined that the GOR would presumably not welcome this kind of intervention designed to help bring stability to the eastern DRC or facilitate successful elections. ¶3. (C) In and of themselves, Joao-Batista's comments were not particularly strident, but they did seem to offer substantially greater criticism of the Rwandan government than the Dean had previously conveyed. There was as well a consistency to many of his comments during the dinner implying an underlying mistrust of Rwandan intentions and policies. In a subsequent conversation with one of the senior Belgian MFA officials accompanying De Gucht, the Belgian visitor commented to the Ambassador that he too had been struck by the critical line of Rwanda taken by the Angolan during the dinner. ¶4. (C) Comment: It is not clear what inspired the Dean to seem to step up critical comment of Rwanda, and we are in no position from here to assess the tenor of thinking in Luanda. Perhaps Joao-Batista wanted to unburden himself of long-held thoughts, and the Belgian FM offered a useful opportunity. Perhaps he has been influenced by renewed recent controversy in the DRC set off by renewed security problems in North Kivu regarding dissident General Nkunda, who is widely viewed as having strong ties to Kigali. The Angolan relationship is a critical one for Kinshasa. The GDRC needs continued Angolan good will and support; Luanda presumably is strongly motivated to do what it can to maintain a friendly government in Kinshasa. If Joao-Batiste's comments do in fact reflect renewed growing suspicion of Kigali in Kinshasa, Luanda, or both capitals, it would obviously be unhelpful to efforts to eventually normalize relations among the past active belligerent governments of the Great Lakes region. End summary. MEECE NNNN