FARDC BUILDING UP FORCE LEVELS IN NORTH KIVU

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 KINSHASA 001870 SIPDIS SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/18/2016 TAGS: PGOV KPKO MOPS ASEC CG SUBJECT: FARDC BUILDING UP FORCE LEVELS IN NORTH KIVU REF: KINSHASA 1834 Classified By: PolOff CBrown, reasons 1.4 b/d. ¶1. (C) Summary: The Congolese military (FARDC) has begun a substantial build-up in North Kivu province following clashes beginning in late November between elements of its integrated and non-integrated brigades. At least seven brigades have been deployed in and around the provincial capital of Goma to counter threats by troops loyal to renegade general Laurent Nkunda. The moves may be designed as a show of force to persuade Nkunda loyalists into joining the FARDC's integrated brigades. End summary. -------------- HIGH-RANKING VISITS TO NORTH KIVU -------------- ¶2. (C) Several high-ranking FARDC officials have traveled to Goma in recent days, including the head of the armed forces, Major General Kisempia Sungilunga. FARDC Chief of Staff General Gabriel Amisi and Air Force Commander General John Numbi have also been in and out of Goma over the last two weeks. FARDC Operations Chief General Malick Kiyige has been traveling between Goma and Bukavu in the last week. MONUC officials report that Numbi has stationed two SU-25 Frogfoot attack aircraft in Kisangani for possible operations around Goma, and an M-24 attack helicopter arrived in Goma December ¶16. ¶3. (C) It is clear that the government is building up its forces in North Kivu, but numbers are hard to determine -- as are the government's intentions. The information that follows comes from several MONUC sources. -------------- PRO-GOVERNMENT FORCES -------------- ¶4. (C) The current combined FARDC force strength in the Goma area is estimated to be between 12,000-13,000 troops. This number includes the 2nd, 9th, 11th, and 14th Integrated Brigades (IBs),plus those units recently redeployed from South Kivu, discussed in more detail below. The non-integrated 81st and 83rd Brigades which contain many loyalists of renegade general Laurent Nkunda, are not included in this figure. ¶5. (C) Prior to the outbreak of fighting against pro-Nkunda forces of the 81st and 83rd in November, the DRC's 8th Military Region (North Kivu province) was covered by the 2nd, 9th, 11th and 14th IBs. The 9th IB, with around 3,500 soldiers, was based in Rutshuru, while the 11th and recently-arrived 14th IBs, each with about 3,300 troops, were �0A;deployed in and around Goma. The 2nd IB, composed of some 2,400 troops, is headquartered in the province's northern section in Butembo. ¶6. (C) MONUC military officials told us it is impossible to determine the exact number of FARDC forces -- both integrated and non-integrated -- currently in North Kivu because of desertions, redeployments and inaccurate figures provided by the FARDC. FARDC officials had previously reported that the 11th IB, which fled fighting with the 81st/83rd in Sake, was to be moved to South Kivu and replaced by the 1st Reserve Brigade from South Kivu. As of December 14, the 11th IB was still in North Kivu. Moreover, there have been "hundreds" of desertions from the 11th IB and other units. ¶7. (C) After the first round of fighting between the pro-Nkunda troops of the 81st/83rd and the integrated brigades, FARDC commanders ordered the redeployment of several brigades from the northern part of North Kivu and from South Kivu. Two battalions of the 2nd IB -- about 2,400 troops at full strength -- have been moved from positions in Butembo towards Masisi. As reported reftel, the non-integrated 1st Reserve Brigade, 110th Brigade and 116th Brigade from South Kivu have been ordered to areas around Goma and Sake to reinforce FARDC positions. FARDC and MONUC military officials confirm that these units have been redeployed to their new areas of operations as of December ¶13. While none of the above brigades were redeployed at full strength, the 1st Reserve Brigade was estimated to have about 2,600 troops, while the 110th and 116th believed to each have 1,700. ¶8. (C) Other units in North Kivu include the non-integrated KINSHASA 00001870 002 OF 002 85th Brigade, based to the west in Walikale, and the non-integrated 88th and 89th Brigades which are stationed in the north in the towns of Lubero and Beni. The 88th and 89th have effectively been disbanded as the last troops from both brigades have entered the military integration process. The 85th is a small force of less than 1,500 soldiers and would not likely take part in any operations around Goma. -------------- SHIPMENT OF WEAPONS, UNIFORMS -------------- ¶9. (C) FARDC forces in North Kivu have in the past week received several tons of ammunition and materiel shipments. On December 11, MONUC military officials reported 17 tons of ammunition had been delivered from Kinshasa to FARDC brigades in North Kivu. MONUC military observers witnessed another five tons of ammunition delivered to Goma, apparently from Kananga, on December 12. The same day, four tons of uniforms reportedly arrived from Kinshasa. MONUC officials reported another ten tons of small-calibre ammunition arrived in Goma from Kinshasa on December 14. -------------- NKUNDA NOT ENCIRCLED -------------- ¶10. (C) The new and existing FARDC deployments have not encircled Nkunda's positions. Johan Peleman, the head of MONUC's Joint Mission Analysis Center (JMAC) in Kinshasa, told us Nkunda and his troops are based primarily in the Masisi region northwest of Goma. While integrated brigades have taken up positions to the north, east and south of Masisi, Peleman said there are no government troops deployed to the west and northwest of Nkunda's base. -------------- TROOPS LEVELS IN 81ST AND 83RD -------------- ¶11. (C) The 81st and 83rd Brigades are each estimated to have about 2,500 soldiers, about half of whom are presumed loyal to Nkunda. MONUC and FARDC officials report there have been "many" troops that have left these brigades since November and joined the integrated brigades. In addition, several hundred soldiers from the 81st have voluntarily selected demobilization or integration in the past month. -------------- MONUC'S PRESENCE -------------- ¶12. (C) MONUC's military presence in Goma is numerically smaller, with approximately 2,500 peacekeepers from India in the immediate area. MONUC peacekeepers, however, possess superior weapons and equipment, as evidenced during the fighting against pro-Nkunda forces in Sake. MONUC officials have made clear its forces will not engage in any fighting unless they or civilian populations are directly threatened or attacked. MONUC also enjoys the decisive advantage of air support, if needed, from its Goma-based attack helicopters. -------------- COMMENT: A SHOW OF FORCE, FOR NOW -------------- ¶13. (C) The current military build-up may be a show of force meant to intimidate Nkunda loyalists into leaving the renegade general's ranks before the December 31 integration deadline. The military posturing could also be a prelude to operations, and FARDC commanders may be demonstrating some foresight in pre-positioning assets for this possibility. FARDC commanders are acutely aware, however, that new uniforms and additional ammunition cannot make up for the military's lack of logistical capability and discipline. Any attack therefore initiated by the FARDC itself against Nkunda would likely be short-lived and unsuccessful. The danger is that with so many troops now concentrated in a highly volatile region, any minor incident could spark wider conflict. End comment. DOUGHERTY