DRC ELECTIONS: PRO-KABILA COALITION AHEAD IN AT

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 KINSHASA 001788 SIPDIS SIPDIS E.O. 12958: N/A TAGS: PGOV KDEM CG ELECTIONS SUBJECT: DRC ELECTIONS: PRO-KABILA COALITION AHEAD IN AT LEAST FIVE PROVINCIAL ASSEMBLY CONTESTS ¶1. (U) Summary: The DRC's Independent Electoral Commission (CEI) has announced results for 472 of the 632 provincial assembly seats in the October 29 election. According to CEI tallies, President Joseph Kabila's Alliance for the Presidential Majority (AMP) coalition has won majorities in four of the DRC's eleven provinces and is likely to win a majority in at least one more. Vice President Jean-Pierre Bemba's Union for the Nation (UN) alliance can claim a majority in Bas-Congo province and is currently leading the vote for two other assemblies. End summary. ¶2. (U) As of November 27, the CEI has released results for 472 of the 632 provincial assembly seats in the DRC's eleven provinces. With 75 percent of all seats awarded, the pro-Kabila People's Party for Reconstruction and Development (PPRD) has won 99 seats; Bemba's Movement for the Liberation of Congo (MLC) has won 71. ¶3. (U) The AMP can currently claim majorities in the eastern provinces of Maniema, North Kivu, South Kivu, and Orientale. The AMP also holds a substantial lead in Katanga and will likely win a majority there. In Bandundu and Eastern Kasai provinces, the AMP is maintaining a slight lead over Bemba's UN coalition, but a substantial number of seats in both provinces have been won by parties that are currently unaligned. ¶4. (4) The UN coalition has won a majority in the western province of Bas-Congo. It has a slight lead in Equateur and Western Kasai provinces as well. ¶5. (U) Several parties aligned with Kabila's AMP have won a substantial number of seats nationwide. The Movement for Social Renewal (MSR) has won 34 seats thus far, while Mbusa Nyamwisi's Forces for Renewal coalition has won 29 seats. Former Public Works Minister (and former Bemba ally) Jose Endundu's Christian Democrat Party (CDP) has won 16 seats, mostly in Equateur province. ¶6. (U) Two other prominent Kabila allies have not fared as well in provincial voting. Antoine Gizenga's Unified Lumumbist Party (PALU) has won just five seats, all of them in Bandundu province. Nzanga Mobutu's Union for Mobutuist Democrats (UDEMO) has won just four seats, two of them in Nzanga's home province of Equateur. ¶7. (U) Vice President Azarias Ruberwa's Rally for Congolese Democracy (RCD) party, has had a strong showing thus far in the provincial elections. The RCD has won 31 seats to date nationwide, with the majority in eastern provinces. Ruberwa's party won just 15 seats in the July 30 elections for the National Assembly. ¶8. (U) The following is a breakdown of the results by province: -------------- BANDUNDU -------------- Sixty-six of 77 seats have been awarded to date in Bandundu. The AMP can claim at least 24, while the UN coalition has won at least 21. The PPRD has won nine seats to the MLC's ten. The AMP appears to be benefiting not just from its alliance with PALU (five seats),but also from its coalition with the MSR (four seats),Olivier Kamitatu's Alliance for the Renewal of Congo (three seats),and Forces for Renewal (three seats). Nineteen of the remaining seats have gone to parties not currently aligned with either alliance. -------------- BAS-CONGO -------------- All seats have been awarded in Bas-Congo, with the UN alliance claiming 15 of the 27. The MLC won five to the PPRD's four and the RCD's three. Bemba's UN alliance secured its majority through alliances with two smaller provincial parties with strong support in the region, the Party for Peace in Congo (CONGO-PAX) and the Alliance of the Builders of Kongo (ABAKO). -------------- EASTERN KASAI -------------- KINSHASA 00001788 002 OF 002 The AMP currently leads the voting in Eastern Kasai with 44 of the province's 61 seats announced. The PPRD has picked up nine seats thus far, while the MLC has won just three. The RCD has done particularly well in the province, winning six seats to date. A significant number of seats -- 13 in total -- have gone to parties not yet aligned with either coalition. -------------- EQUATEUR -------------- No clear majority party or coalition has yet emerged in Equateur. Bemba's UN coalition leads with 38 of the 78 seats awarded thus far, and the AMP has won 31. There are 100 seats total in this provincial assembly. While the PPRD has won just ten seats to the MLC's 30, the AMP has benefited from its alliance with Endundu's PDC party, which has won ten seats. -------------- KATANGA -------------- With 33 of the 93 seats in Katanga awarded, the AMP has won 33 to the UN's five. The PPRD alone has won 20 of the seats announced thus far, and it is likely the AMP will win a majority in the province once the remaining results are announced. -------------- KINSHASA -------------- Results for just six of Kinshasa's 44 provincial assembly seats have been announced to date. The MLC has won four of these seats. -------------- MANIEMA -------------- The AMP is the clear majority in Maniema, winning 14 of the 22 seats there. The MLC did not win a single seat in the province, although its UN coalition did claim one. The PPRD won six seats and its ally Forces for Renewal won another five. -------------- NORTH KIVU -------------- The AMP also won a majority in North Kivu, taking 22 of the province's 38 seats. The MLC did win won seat there, but the PPRD took nine, while the AMP-aligned MSR and Forces for Renewal each won five. -------------- ORIENTALE -------------- The AMP can claim a majority in Orientale province, although not all seats have yet been awarded. The alliance has so far won 56 of the 88 seats, with the PPRD alone taking 19. Other winners in the province include the MSR with eleven seats and Forces for Renewal with ten. Bemba's MLC has won eight seats to date in the province, while his UN alliance can currently claim 15 overall. -------------- SOUTH KIVU -------------- Kabila's AMP will also be able to claim a majority in South Kivu. With 27 of the province's 33 seats announced, the AMP has won 19, while Bemba's UN coalition has not won a single seat. -------------- WESTERN KASAI -------------- Western Kasai is another toss-up race. Twenty-seven of the province's 49 provincial assembly seats have thus far been awarded, with the UN alliance claiming eleven and the AMP winning seven. Eight seats have gone to unaffiliated parties. MEECE