BEMBA ADVISER PREDICTS COURT LOSS, PROVINCIAL WINS

UNCLAS KINSHASA 001780 SIPDIS SENSITIVE SIPDIS E.O. 12958: N/A TAGS: PGOV KDEM CG ELECTIONS SUBJECT: BEMBA ADVISER PREDICTS COURT LOSS, PROVINCIAL WINS REF: A. A. KINSHASA 1777 ¶B. B. KINSHASA 1759 ¶C. C. KINSHASA 1778 ¶1. (SBU) Summary: Delly Sesanga, a key member of Vice President Jean-Pierre Bemba's Movement for the Liberation of the Congo (MLC),expects Bemba's Supreme Court challenge of the October 29 presidential vote will not succeed. He claimed that early vote tallies indicated the MLC will control at least five of the eleven new provincial assemblies. He expressed concern that allies of President Joseph Kabila are using their majority in the new National Assembly to eliminate any meaningful role for a future opposition. End summary. ¶2. (U) MLC insider Delly Sesanga reviewed Vice President Jean-Pierre Bemba's legal complaint seeking to overturn the results of the October 29 presidential election and challenges facing his party in a November 20 meeting with PolCouns and PolOff. Sesanga, a lawyer, led the effort to assemble Bemba's legal case, and is one of 64 MLC members elected to the National Assembly. The meeting took place in his office next door to the Supreme Court building which was burned and looted less than two hours later by Bemba partisans (ref A). ¶3. (U) Sesanga confirmed that Bemba's case requests annulment of the presidential results rather than specific changes in the vote count. It alleges a lack of transparency significant enough to invalidate the electoral process, based on five arguments: a) high number of votes by special dispensation (ref B) and by b) voters on the "omitted" and "special" lists (ref C); c) failure by the Independent Electoral Commission (CEI) to adequately post lists of voters; d) denial of access to Bemba's witnesses to voting stations in the East; e) and "manipulation" of vote counts. ¶4. (SBU) Sesanga said he did not expect the Court to uphold Bemba's suit. He alleged that some of its judges were biased against Bemba and would not rule impartially. He said he planned to be out of the country during the presidential installation, and would advise Bemba to do the same. He stated that he would return from a Christmas vacation "after Kabila had appointed his government." ¶5. (SBU) Sesanga noted that unofficial vote counts from the same October 29 election indicated that the MLC would win majorities in five or six of the eleven provincial assemblies. The CEI had yet to release any tallies as of November 20, but Sesanga stated that the MLC would have majorities in Bas-Congo, Kinshasa, Equateur, Bandundu, and Western Kasai provinces, and possibly Eastern Kasai, with Kabila's party taking the rest. He claimed the MLC planned to challenge these results as well, but could not do so until they were officially released. ¶6. (SBU) Comment. Sesanga represents a "moderate" faction of longtime Bemba advisers who have been working for several weeks to carve out roles for themselves. He was clearly content with reported provincial results and it would be surprising if the party actually intends to dispute them. End comment. MEECE