DRC ELECTIONS: VOTE COUNT NEARLY COMPLETE

C O N F I D E N T I A L KINSHASA 001736 SIPDIS SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/13/2016 TAGS: PGOV KDEM CG ELECTIONS SUBJECT: DRC ELECTIONS: VOTE COUNT NEARLY COMPLETE REF: KINSHASA 1729 Classified By: PolOff CBrown, reasons 1.4 b/d. ¶1. (U) As of November 13, preliminary figures released by the DRC's Independent Electoral Commission (CEI),accounting for 90 percent of the country's electoral districts, place President Joseph Kabila ahead of Vice President Jean-Pierre Bemba by 58.8 to 41.2 percent. Approximately 2.5 million votes separate the two candidates, of a total of 14.3 million valid votes counted up to this point. ¶2. (U) Kabila's support continues to be drawn primarily from the east, where he has won 93 percent of the votes counted in Katanga, Maniema, North and South Kivu, and Orientale provinces. His totals also show significant increases in the western strongholds of his ally Antoine Gizenga. Kabila has received 38 percent of the vote thus far reported from Bandundu province, where he won just 3 percent July 30. He also increased his portion of the Kinshasa vote from 15 to 32 percent (reftel). ¶3. (U) Most of the remaining unannounced results come from districts in the west and in the center, where Bemba has strong followings. He has won 79 percent of the total vote reported thus far in Bandundu, Bas-Congo, Equateur, and Kinshasa in the west. In the central provinces of Eastern and Western Kasai, Bemba has won 82 percent, versus 24 percent in the first round. ¶4. (U) The average turnout rate in the 152 districts reporting is nearly 66 percent of eligible voters, down five percent from July 30 figures. Participation in western areas is down nine percent, while in the east it is down five percent. It is up approximately five percent in the two Kasais. ¶5. (C) CEI spokesman Dieudonne Mirimo told us November 11 the Commission will announce provisional results before the target date of November 19. Mirimo guessed the announcement would be "several days" early because the compilation process is proceeding more quickly in the second round. ¶6. (U) Should the CEI announce provisional results before November 19, the presidential inauguration currently projected for December 10 will also be advanced. The DRC's electoral law states that parties must bring any legal challenges before the Supreme Court within three days of the CEI announcement. The Court must render its decisions within seven days, and the president-elect installed within another ten days of the Court validating the results. ¶6. (C) Comment: While the vote count is neither yet official nor final, it is clear Kabila's totals will be greater than Bemba's when the compilation is complete. End comment. MEECE