PRESIDENTIAL ADVISER OPTIMISTIC ABOUT ELECTION

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 KINSHASA 001715 SIPDIS SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/06/2016 TAGS: PGOV KDEM KPKO ECON CG ELECTIONS SUBJECT: PRESIDENTIAL ADVISER OPTIMISTIC ABOUT ELECTION RESULTS REF: KINSHASA 1674 Classified By: DCM TDougherty. Reasons 1.4 b/d. ¶1. (C) Summary: Presidential security adviser (and newly-elected parliamentarian) Guillaume Samba Kaputo believes that President Kabila comfortably won the second round of presidential elections on October 29 with as much as 60% of the vote. Though not discounting the possibility of violence once election results are announced, Kaputo believes any security incidents can be contained. End comment. ¶2. (C) Presidential insider Samba Kaputo told DCM on November 6 that he believes Kabila won about 60% of the popular vote in the second round of presidential elections on October 29. He claims that Kabila maintained the strong showing he had in the first round in the east (North Kivu, South Kivu, Maniema, and Orientale),and even improved in his home province of Katanga. "Thanks to Gizenga," Kabila's showing improved substantially in Bandundu, as well as in Bas-Congo and Kinshasa (where Kaputo says Kabila scored more than 30%, in comparison to his 18% share in the first round). Kaputo said he is confident that despite Bemba's strong showing in the central provinces, Kabila won the national vote handily. ¶3. (C) Kaputo believes that the results of the presidential election are likely to be known by the general public in the next week, and claims that "both sides know" that Kabila has won and Bemba has lost. When asked directly if Bemba "knows" that he did not win, Kaputo admitted that the Vice President may still be claiming victory but that his closest advisers acknowledge that he has lost. He said that Bemba's MLC has an important role to play in the new National Assembly, as well as in the provincial assemblies, and that the new government's level of cooperation with the MLC will correspond to the MLC's cooperation with the new government. ¶4. (C) Turning to security and to managing the announcement of election results, Kaputo noted that he and other Kabila advisers are meeting daily with the Independent Electoral Commission (CEI) and with representatives of Vice President Bemba. Now that the CEI has started releasing initial results, Kaputo believes Bemba supporters will gradually realize that their candidate has lost -- and will therefore not react precipitately when the final announcement is made. ¶5. (C) Kaputo acknowledged the potential for post-election violence in Ituri and in the Kivus, but said he did not believe either area will experience serious problems. The key to keeping the peace in Kinshasa, per Kaputo, is to ensure that MLC militia understand they have a future in the integrated Congolese armed forces. Kaputo said it is important that this message be conveyed to Bemba's security forces "by all available channels," and noted that he does not think the rank and file currently understand that all would not be over for them once Bemba's defeat is announced. ¶6. (C) Regarding the protracted negotiations that resulted in the October 29 post-electoral agreement between the two candidates (reftel),Kaputo said the issue of "immunity" was the last to be resolved. Kaputo said he explained to MLC Executive Secretary Thomas Luhaka in October that either candidate could simply be named to the Senate by having one of his party's senators cede his seat to him. The candidate would then immediately become a senator himself and enjoy senatorial immunity. Once provincial assemblies select senators (presumably in January),the losing candidate could be named a senator by an assembly favorable to his party, thereby extending his immunity during the mandate of the new government. ¶7. (C) Kaputo expressed serious concern about the state of the economy and the enormous challenges the new president will face to meet the Congolese people's pent-up expectations. He hopes the IMF can quickly establish a new program in the DRC. While admitting that there has been serious overspending in the past months, he said he believed a post-Transition government will be more "coherent" and accountable, and will also be able to increase revenues. ¶8. (C) Comment: Though Kaputo's projected margin of victory seems overly optimistic to us, there is little doubt that he (presumably along with other hard-line insiders in the Presidency) is confident that Kabila has won. Though he seemed less certain that the results will be accepted KINSHASA 00001715 002 OF 002 peacefully, he nevertheless believes that whatever problems may arise can quickly be brought under control. End comment. MEECE