DRC ELECTIONS: FIRST RESULTS SHOW KABILA WITH

UNCLAS KINSHASA 001712 SIPDIS SENSITIVE SIPDIS E.O. 12958: N/A TAGS: PGOV KDEM CG ELECTIONS SUBJECT: DRC ELECTIONS: FIRST RESULTS SHOW KABILA WITH EARLY LEAD REF: A. KINSHASA 1618 ¶B. KINSHASA 1485 ¶1. (U) The DRC's Independent Electoral Commission (CEI) posted on its website November 5 the first official vote tallies from the October 29 presidential election. The numbers represent only six percent of the country's electoral districts and give President Joseph Kabila a lead over Vice President Jean-Pierre Bemba by 68.5 to 31.5 percent. ¶2. (U) The twelve districts are evenly split between the country's eastern and western regions and account for a total of 908,767 valid votes. Turnout is down approximately eight percent in these districts compared to the July 30 election, but averages the same as the 71 percent nationwide participation in the first rounds. Participation in the six western electoral districts is proportionately lower than the six in the east. ¶3. (U) As in the first round, Kabila's support is primarily in eastern provinces, Bemba's in the west. Results reported from Katanga, Maniema and North Kivu provinces show Kabila winning nearly 97 percent of the vote. Bemba won 84 percent of the vote reported in Bandundu, Bas-Congo and Equateur provinces. ¶4. (SBU) The results do not yet show significant benefit to Kabila from alliances with Antoine Gizenga and Nzanga Mobutu (reftels),whose respective bases are in Bandundu and Equateur. In the four districts reporting from these two provinces, Kabila has improved his first round score by approximately six percent, while Bemba's has increased by nearly 55 percent. (Note: The only results in from Bandundu province are from the city of Bandundu, where Bemba was expected to do well. End note.) ¶5. (SBU) Comment: These first early results represent just six percent of the DRC's 189 electoral districts. They should not be viewed as indicating any particular voting trends. End comment. MEECE