DRC ELECTIONS: PALU CONFIDENT ITS MEMBERS WILL

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 KINSHASA 001668 SIPDIS SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/27/2016 TAGS: PGOV KDEM CG ELECTIONS SUBJECT: DRC ELECTIONS: PALU CONFIDENT ITS MEMBERS WILL SUPPORT KABILA REF: A. KINSHASA 1485 ¶B. KINSHASA 1652 Classified By: PolOff CBrown, reasons 1.4 b/d. ¶1. (C) Summary: Close advisers to Antoine Gizenga, the Secretary General of the Unified Lumumbist Party (PALU),said SIPDIS they are confident the party's supporters will vote for President Joseph Kabila in the October 29 run-off election. They confirmed that Gizenga himself will not campaign for Kabila, but said their party is well-organized and will provide Kabila solid support in Bandundu and Kinshasa. They believe the Gizenga-Kabila coalition will unify the country and eliminate the so-called East-West divide. PALU officials said they foresaw some possibility for election-related violence, but such incidents would be limited and easily controlled. End summary. ¶2. (U) Top officials of Antoine Gizenga's Unified Lumumbist Party (PALU) reviewed the party's outlook on the October 29 elections in a meeting with PolCouns and PolOff at PALU's Kinshasa headquarters October 19. Gizenga formed a coalition in late September with Kabila and his Alliance for the Presidential Majority (AMP) (ref A),after having finished third in the July 30 presidential vote with 13 percent. PALU enjoys significant support in Bandundu and in certain parts of Kinshasa, and won 34 of the 500 seats in the National Assembly. -------------- --- GIZENGA WILL NOT CAMPAIGN, BUT BASE IS ORGANIZED -------------- --- ¶3. (C) PALU spokesman Godefroid Mayobo, who was elected to the National Assembly July 30, confirmed that Gizenga did not plan to campaign for Kabila, even in his home province of Bandundu, which Gizenga has not visited in years. The 81-year-old leader of PALU won 80 percent of the Bandundu vote July 30, and 22 percent of Kinshasa. Kabila fared poorly in both regions, winning less than three percent in Bandundu and less than 15 percent in Kinshasa. ¶4. (C) PALU National Secretary Adolphe Muzito claimed Gizenga's absence from the campaign would not in fact hurt Kabila's chances. He said that PALU's party organization and discipline and its long-held ideals of democracy and security would be more important in convincing its members and sympathizers to support the alliance and vote for Kabila October 29. -------------- HOW SOLID IS THE KABILA-PALU ALLIANCE? -------------- ¶5. (C) Mayobo maintained that Gizenga and his top advisers are confident PALU's supporters will vote in large numbers for Kabila. He said the Kinshasa-based party leadership has been in regular contact with its grass-roots membership to assess their opinions about the alliance. He said members have agreed to support the partnership with Kabila, but admitted that some among the larger group of Gizenga partisans were initially disappointed. Both Mayobo and Muzito predicted PALU supporters would vote solidly for Kabila in Bandundu and Kinshasa October 29. ¶6. (C) Others are more skeptical. PALU's political director in Western Kasai, where there is a significant PALU presence, told us recently he expected no more than half the Gizenga voters there to vote for Kabila (ref B). Senior advisers to Vice President Jean-Pierre Bemba tell us they doubt Kabila will be able to win over PALU voters in Kinshasa (septel). MONUC political officers do not believe that all of Gizenga's first-round supporters will vote for Kabila, particularly in Bandundu. In their analysis, Gizenga received most of his votes as a protest against Kabila. ¶7. (C) Mayobo claimed that the party's efforts to explain how the alliance would help unify the country is what will convince PALU supporters to vote for Kabila. He said that the first-round results made many fear a split in the country between Kabila voters in the East and Bemba's in the West. Mayobo said the PALU-AMP coalition will bridge that gap. In his telling, PALU voters will support Kabila in order to eliminate any divisions between the country's East and West. -------------- KINSHASA 00001668 002 OF 002 SOME VIOLENCE LIKELY, BUT WILL BE LIMITED -------------- ¶8. (C) Mayobo told us the party had some concerns about election security, highlighting manipulation of students, the unemployed and "shegues" (Congolese street gangs) by Bemba and his allies. Mayobo claimed that Bemba partisans and members of the Union for Democracy and Social Progress are paying shegues to harass voters and candidates, distribute leaflets containing rumors intended to discredit Kabila, and create the impression of insecurity. Both Mayobo and Muzito concurred that such incidents would be limited and easily controlled by security forces. Muzito said Bemba's MLC party would not be able to deploy "sufficient forces" to prevent PALU from campaigning for Kabila. -------------- COMMENT: PALU SUPPORT NOT A SURE THING -------------- ¶9. (C) Voting for Kabila will require a large leap of faith for the PALU partisans who voted loyally for Gizenga July 30 and supported his cause for years. Many Gizenga voters will not be willing to take that leap, and neither Kabila nor Gizenga has made the personal effort to woo PALU electors whose votes Kabila needs October 29 to cut into Bemba's support in Bandundu and Kinshasa. End comment. -------------- BIOGRAPHICAL NOTES -------------- ¶10. (U) Godefroid Mayobo is the spokesman for PALU and was recently elected as a National Assembly representative from Kinshasa. Born on September 11, 1954, he was trained as a mechanical engineer. He taught engineering at the University of Kinshasa and the Institute of Applied Technical Arts in Kinshasa. ¶11. (U) Adolphe Muzito is PALU's National Secretary for Finance. Muzito was a member of the DRC's transitional parliament and is currently running for a seat in Kinshasa's provincial assembly. Born in 1957, he is trained as an economist and has worked as a financial inspector. MEECE