EUFOR: MANDATE TO END NOVEMBER 30

1. (C) Summary. Senior EU Force (EUFOR) commanders in
Kinshasa say that EUFOR intends to leave the DRC as scheduled
November 30. They think they are doing the job they were
sent to do, and doing it well. End summary.



2. (C) EUFOR Commander and Major General Christian Damay and
chief of staff Colonel Eric Guyon told us in separate
meetings September 27 they believe EUFOR will accomplish its
mission in DR Congo, and there will be no need to renew its
mandate past November 30. Damay said he considers that
EUFOR's mission has been positive and has contributed to the
country's security and the success of the electoral process.
He expressed concern that many Congolese are still suspicious
of people in uniform, and believe EUFOR was sent to ensure a
Kabila victory or will remain in place to install a
neocolonialist regime.



3. (C) Guyon emphasized that EUFOR was brought in to secure
the Congolese electoral process, and that process ends with
the second round of elections. He stated that the EUFOR
mission has been a success, and that all objectives in the
field have been met.



4. (C) Both expressed confidence in MONUC and Congolese
forces currently in place. Damay stated these troops would
be sufficient to ensure adequate security in the months
ahead. Guyon conceded that a great deal is unknown about how
events will unfold between now and election day on October
29, but believes EUFOR and MONUC will be able to handle any
problems. He said EUFOR now has small teams in place to
support MONUC in Lubumbashi, Mbuji-Mayi, Kananga and
Mbandaka, in addition to its Kinshasa contingent. These
units are set up more as a show of force to intimidate any
possible spoilers, and do not have much operational capacity.



5. (C) Damay expressed doubt about the intentions of the
Kabila and Bemba camps regarding the Kinshasa arms-free
agreement (reftel), and their willingness to resort once more
to violence. He said he believed both sides were making good
efforts, while noting that it is impossible to know what they
may be hiding. Guyon described the joint verification teams
set up after the August 20-22 shootout as "an empty shell."
He said neither side is currently doing much in terms of arms
verification and reduction. However, neither is willing to
abandon the mechanism altogether because of the political
cover and value it conveys. (Note: The first joint patrols
of the Congolese police with MONUC and EUFOR troops began
October 3, aimed at enforcing a weapons ban in Kinshasa
during the election period. End note.)



6. (C) Guyon admitted to some concerns about the gap between
the end of EUFOR's mandate on November 30 and the scheduled
December 10 presidential inauguration. He said that there
could certainly be some violence instigated by the losing
party to disturb the post-election period.



7. (C) Comment. Useful activities of EUFOR in support of
MONUC notwithstanding, its mission statement remains a moving
target. Drawing a firm line under November is likely driven
as much by political considerations in Europe, especially in
Germany, as anything else. However, it begs the question of
whether conditions on the ground will -- or will not --
warrant a continued EUFOR presence, particularly until
installation of the new government on December 10. End
comment.
MEECE