GIZENGA OFFICIALLY SIGNS ON TO SUPPORT KABILA,

UNCLAS KINSHASA 001529 SIPDIS SENSITIVE SIPDIS E.O. 12958: N/A TAGS: PGOV KDEM KPKO CG ELECTIONS SUBJECT: GIZENGA OFFICIALLY SIGNS ON TO SUPPORT KABILA, WILL GAIN PRIME MINISTERSHIP REF: KINSHASA 1485 ¶1. (U) Summary: PALU leader Antoine Gizenga formalized his support September 30 for President Joseph Kabila in the second round of DR Congo's presidential elections in an agreement that also guarantees PALU the position of Prime Minister. The agreement also commits PALU and Kabila,s AMP to a coalition government aimed exclusively at implementing a set of "republican values." Nzanga Mobutu,s Union of Mobutuists (UDEMO) has also agreed to an alliance with Kabila's Alliance for the Presidential Majority (AMP) in the National Assembly, and is widely expected to sign an accord to support Kabila as well. If large numbers of rank-and-file supporters of these two parties indeed follow the direction of their leaders, who finished third and fourth in the July 30 vote, Kabila could gain a majority in the second round and a super-majority in the National Assembly. End summary. ¶2. (U) Antoine Gizenga, long-time leader of the Unified Party of Lumumbists (PALU),formalized the party's alliance with Transitional President Joseph Kabila,s Alliance for the Presidential Majority (AMP) in a ceremonial gathering September 30 at Kinshasa's Grand Hotel. The Protocol of Agreement signed by the two commits PALU to direct and mobilize its members and sympathizers to vote for Kabila in the October 20 run-off with Transitional Vice President Jean-Pierre Bemba, and guarantees PALU the position of prime minister in a coalition government if Kabila wins. ¶3. (U) The Protocol also states that AMP and PALU will form a parliamentary alliance and elaborate a common program of government, and outlines a set of "republican values" that a future President Kabila and parliamentarians of both parties will be exclusively dedicated to establishing. ¶4. (U) Nzanga Mobutu, whose Union of Mobutuists (UDEMO) has agreed to support the AMP in the National Assembly, attended the September 30 signing ceremony as a guest of honor. He has not signed a similar accord with Kabila, but one is widely expected. Hundreds of well-dressed and orderly PALU supporters crowded the streets around the hotel for most of the morning in anticipation of the ceremony. The event was peaceful, despite the inevitable traffic congestion. ¶5. (SBU) Comment: Formalization of the PALU-AMP alliance was expected (reftel). Gizenga,s blessing will clearly benefit Kabila in the west, where he won little support in the first round, and works to reduce perceptions of an east-west split. If PALU and UDEMO members follow their leaders' direction, Kabila is ever closer to a second-round victory and a National Assembly supermajority. This is, however, far from a sure thing, especially for Mobutu's northern Equateur core constituency which has little inherent sympathy for the Kabila led government. Kabila's recent public statements on his goals as president are clearly designed to resonate with PALU supporters: building good governance, ending corruption and "putting the country back on track." The fact that Gizenga, the senior pre-Mobutu statesman, would gain a position of relevance doesn't hurt either. End comment. MEECE