KABILA ALLIES CLAIM DRC PARLIAMENTARY MAJORITY

UNCLAS KINSHASA 001471 SIPDIS SENSITIVE SIPDIS E.O. 12958: N/A TAGS: PGOV KDEM CG ELECTIONS SUBJECT: KABILA ALLIES CLAIM DRC PARLIAMENTARY MAJORITY ¶1. (U) Officials of a coalition of political parties that support DR Congo President Joseph Kabila claim to have assembled a majority in the newly-elected National Assembly. In a September 19 declaration, Coordinator Andre-Philippe Futa of the Alliance for the Presidential Majority (AMP) said the alliance now counts over 270 of 500 parliamentarians in its ranks. ¶2. (SBU) AMP has not released a list of the alliance's member parties and legislators, but the Kabila-affiliated People's Party for Reconstruction and Democracy (PPRD) will quite likely comprise the largest bloc with 111 seats. AMP officials noted that the 270 seats do not include the nine members elected from Nzanga Mobutu's UDEMO party, nor the 34 from Antoine Gizenga's Unified Lumumist Party (PALU). UDEMO publicly declared it would ally with the AMP. PALU officials have made no public announcement, but indicate privately they will likely enter into a coalition with the AMP. Taken together, these additional deputies would give the alliance more than the 300 votes needed to amend the new DRC constitution. ¶3. (U) The precise number of AMP members should become known when the National Assembly is installed September 22. Obtaining a majority in the Assembly would not only give the AMP control of the legislature but also a say in the selection of the prime minister. The DRC's electoral law states that the prime minister will be selected by the president in consultation with the majority coalition in the National Assembly. It does not explicitly mandate that the prime minister be a member of the Assembly, although it requires that he or she be supported by the majority coalition. ¶4. (SBU) An AMP-controlled National Assembly at this early stage would favor a Kabila victory in second-round voting October 25. While the exact composition of the alliance remains sketchy, it appears likely it will be able to claim at least the 251-seat majority in the Assembly. This conclusion has not (yet) been challenged by the Rally of Congolese Nationalists (RENACO),the coalition of parties backing Vice President Jean-Pierre Bemba. MEECE