DRC ELECTIONS: PROVISIONAL LEGISLATIVE RESULTS

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 03 KINSHASA 001412 SIPDIS SENSITIVE SIPDIS E.O. 12958: N/A TAGS: PGOV KDEM KPKO CG ELECTIONS SUBJECT: DRC ELECTIONS: PROVISIONAL LEGISLATIVE RESULTS SHOW NO PARTY WITH MAJORITY REF: A. KINSHASA 1386 ¶B. KINSHASA 1102 ¶1. (U) Summary: National provisional results released September 7 by the Independent Electoral Commission (CEI) for the DRC's next National Assembly show no political party or coalition controlling a majority of the chamber's 500 seats. According to the CEI figures, the People's Party for Reconstruction and Development (PPRD) leads all parties with 22 percent (111 seats) of the tabulated vote. Vice President Jean-Pierre Bemba's Movement for the Liberation of Congo (MLC) won a total of 13 percent (64 seats),while 63 independent candidates also won seats in the future legislature. The announcement of the provisional results was delayed for three days because of logistical problems and reported attempts at falsifying vote counts. The National Assembly is now scheduled to be installed September 22. End summary. -------------- -------------- PPRD TAKES PLURALITY OF SEATS, BUT NO PARTY HAS MAJORITY -------------- -------------- ¶2. (U) The CEI released the evening of September 7 the provisional election results from the DRC's July 30 National Assembly elections. The Kabila-affiliated PPRD won a total of 111 seats (22 percent),with the MLC taking 64 seats (13 percent). A total of 63 independent candidates were also awarded seats in the future National Assembly, comprising 13 percent of the 500-seat Assembly. Antoine Gizenga's Unified Lumumbist Party (PALU) received the third-highest vote count with 34 seats (seven percent) overall, thanks to a strong showing in Kinshasa and Bandundu province. In addition to the PPRD, MLC and PALU, 66 other political parties won positions in the national legislature; 31 of those parties claimed just one seat. No party or coalition, however, gained a majority of seats to control the Assembly and thus the right to present a candidate for the position of prime minister. ¶3. (U) In Kinshasa's four electoral districts -- representing nearly 12 percent of the National Assembly -- no one party came out ahead. The 58 seats available in the capital were spread among 25 political parties and three independent candidates. The MLC won the plurality with eight seats, followed by PALU with six seats. The PPRD and Vice President Z'ahidi Ngoma's Camp de la Patrie party each won four seats in the capital. ¶4. (U) Parties comprising the Alliance for the Presidential Majority (AMP),a coalition of 31 parties which backed President Kabila's presidential bid (including the PPRD), have won an additional 49 seats, bringing the AMP's share to 160 seats, or 32 percent of the total. The Rally of Congolese Nationalists (RENACO),which includes Bemba's MLC, has won 29 additional seats, raising its total to 93 seats overall, or 19 percent of the entire Assembly. ¶5. (U) Two other political parties hold smaller but significant percentages of the overall totals. Minister of Regional Cooperation Mbusa Nyamwisi's Forces of Renewal party won 26 seats (five percent),and the Social Movement for Renewal (MSR) garnered 27 seats (five percent). Both parties may be considered potential allies of Kabila's AMP, but neither is as yet officially partnered with the coalition. If both Forces of Renewal and the MSR were to join with the AMP, the Alliance would have 213 seats (43 percent) in the National Assembly -- still not enough to control the legislature. -------------- WINNERS AND LOSERS -------------- ¶6. (U) The latest results have shown more well-known national politicians winning seats, although there have been some high-profile losers as well. Among the winners in Western Kasai province were the current governor Gilbert Tshiongo (PPRD),former governor Andre-Claudel Lubaya (PPRD),Vice Minister of Budget Tresor Kapuku (Rally for Congolese Democracy, RCD),and former Kabila adviser Evariste Boshab (PPRD). In Bandundu province, former National Assembly President Olivier Kamitatu (Forces du Renouveau/ARC) and Minister of Interior Theophile Mbemba (PPRD) also won in their respective districts, although by narrow margins. Other winners included Minister of Defense Adolphe Onusumba (RCD) KINSHASA 00001412 002 OF 003 in Eastern Kasai, former Minister of Public Works and former MLC member Jose Endundo (Party of Christian Democrats) in Equateur, the current governor of Eastern Kasai Dominique Kanku (MLC),and sports club owner and PPRD regional campaign manager Moise Katumbi in Katanga. Minister of Foreign Affairs Raymond Ramazani (MLC) lost his race for a seat in Orientale province, as did the province's current governor Lola Kisanga (RCD). The current governor of Kinshasa, Kibembe Mazunda (PPRD) also lost in his district. Eve Bazaiba, the former member of the opposition Union for Democracy and Social Progress (UDPS) -- who was the only known high-profile UDPS to run for any seat despite the party's election boycott (ref B) -- lost her race for a seat representing her district in Kinshasa. -------------- WHY THE DELAY? -------------- ¶7. (U) The CEI had previously planned to announce provisional nationwide National Assembly results September 4. The announcement was pushed back to September 7 because of logistical delays and other difficulties. CEI officials said on September 4 ten CEI agents at the Kinshasa compilation center were caught trying to falsify results in favor of a candidate for the RCD party. While the attempted fraud was detected and no results were altered, the CEI withheld publishing the figures for three of Kinshasa's four electoral districts in order to re-examine the results. CEI officials said this re-verification process required a few extra days of work, since there were 45 seats at stake involving more than 2,400 candidates. In addition, results from 25 districts in the interior of the country had yet to be transmitted to CEI headquarters in Kinshasa for final confirmation. CEI President Abbe Apollinaire Malu Malu said the delay in releasing the provisional legislative results will have no impact on the date for the second round of elections scheduled for October 29. Instead, the installation of the next National Assembly has been subsequently pushed back to September 22 from its previous date of September 19. (Note: The DRC's electoral law stipulates the National Assembly is to be seated 15 days after the announcement of the provisional results. End note.) -------------- NEXT STEPS -------------- ¶8. (U) According to the DRC's electoral law, challenges to the provisional legislative results must be brought before the Supreme Court within the three days following the announcement of results. The Court will then have two months to deliberate on all challenges and issue its rulings. Consequently, the validation of final National Assembly results will not be made until November 12. ¶9. (U) In the meantime, as mentioned above, the National Assembly will be seated based on the provisional results September 22. According to Article 114 of the DRC constitution, the provisional Assembly will be led by the oldest elected member of the institution and assisted by its two youngest elected members. (Note: As of September 8, the oldest and youngest members of the Assembly have not yet been identified. End note.) The provisional bureau will, by the powers granted in the constitution, validate the office's powers, elect and install the members of the permanent executive office, and determine the internal rules of the Assembly. ¶10. (U) As no political party or coalition won a majority of seats, the two weeks leading up to the installation of the National Assembly will undoubtedly be filled with horse-trading and coalition-building. Among the 63 independent candidates elected, it is unknown how many will ally themselves with the AMP or RENACO, or otherwise choose to remain unaligned; nor is it certain which of the smaller parties will declare the allegiances. Since the future prime minister will be selected by the next President from the ranks of the Assembly's majority party/coalition, each side has a vested interest in gathering the required 251 votes to claim a majority. Absent such a majority, however, the DRC constitution stipulates that the President can nominate an individual to undertake a mission of 30 days (renewable once) to "identify a coalition" to lead the Assembly. KINSHASA 00001412 003 OF 003 -------------- COMMENT: PREVIEWING SECOND-ROUND ELECTIONS -------------- ¶11. (SBU) The National Assembly results -- perhaps not surprisingly -- are nearly identical to the first-round presidential election figures. The Kabila-allied AMP (including Forces du Renouveau and the MSR) won 43 percent and the Bemba-allied RENACO won 19 percent, compared to Kabila's 45 percent and Bemba's 20 percent in the July 30 presidential voting. The deals to be struck in the coming days to form a parliamentary majority will definitely be made with the outcome of the October 29 presidential runoff election in mind. The composition of any potential majority alliance, though, is unclear. Coalition-building will be difficult for the Kabila and Bemba camps, particularly in light of the August 20-22 violence in Kinshasa that likely diminished the goodwill toward both candidates (although at more cost for Kabila than for Bemba). In any case, the creation of the National Assembly majority is worth close examination, as it will likely give a good indication of the results the Kabila-Bemba faceoff. MEECE