DRC ELECTIONS: KABILA LEAD SLIPPING BELOW 50

UNCLAS KINSHASA 001300 SIPDIS SENSITIVE SIPDIS E.O. 12958: N/A TAGS: PGOV KDEM KPKO CG ELECTIONS SUBJECT: DRC ELECTIONS: KABILA LEAD SLIPPING BELOW 50 PERCENT REF: KINSHASA 1293 (NOTAL) ¶1. (SBU) As of August 17, initial voting results from approximately 63 percent of the DRC's electoral districts show incumbent President Joseph Kabila's lead narrowing over Vice President Jean-Pierre Bemba. According to the results posted from 107 of the 169 districts, Kabila leads Bemba 48.5 to 16.2 percent. This is the first time Kabila's preliminary vote total has dropped below 50 percent since results have been made known, making the possibility of a second round runoff election more likely. If no candidate wins an absolute majority from the July 30 election, the top two vote recipients will stand for a second round of elections scheduled for October 29. ¶2. (U) One of Kinshasa's four electoral districts posted its results August 17, providing the first glimpse of voter preferences in the capital. Voter participation in this district -- which is dominated by the opposition party UDPS, which boycotted the elections -- was 70 percent, considerably higher than the citywide average of 47 percent during the December constitutional referendum. Bemba won the district with 50 percent of the vote (213,485 of 429,485 valid votes cast); Gizenga came in second with 21 percent (91,544 votes), while Kabila was in third with 14 percent (61,406 votes) of the ballots cast. ¶3. (U) The initial results of those districts reporting thus far also show Antoine Gizenga gaining in the overall percentage of votes. Gizenga now has 11.3 percent of the reported results, up from his previous total of eight percent on August 16. Nzanga Mobutu is in fourth place with 5.4 percent of the vote, and Oscar Kashala is in fifth place with just under three percent. ¶4. (U) A total of 9,212,755 valid votes have thus far been counted. According to Independent Electoral Commission (CEI) figures, voter turnout continues to be around 73 percent in the 107 districts having reported results. Of those districts reporting, 53 are from the eastern part of the country, 44 are from western DRC, and the remaining ten are located in the central region of the country. ¶5. (U) Preliminary results continue to show Kabila doing well in the east and Bemba leading in the west. Of the 51 districts won by Kabila, 48 of them come from the eastern provinces of Orientale, North and South Kivu, Maniema, and Katanga. Bemba has won 23 districts thus far, with 20 of those located in the western areas of Equateur, Bandundu, Bas-Congo, and Kinshasa. All eight of the provinces won by Gizenga are in his native Bandundu. MEECE