DRC ELECTIONS: KABILA MAINTAINS LEAD WITH 60

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 KINSHASA 001293 SIPDIS SENSITIVE SIPDIS E.O. 12958: N/A TAGS: PGOV KDEM KPKO CG ELECTIONS SUBJECT: DRC ELECTIONS: KABILA MAINTAINS LEAD WITH 60 PERCENT OF DISTRICTS REPORTING REF: A. KINSHASA 1277 ¶B. KINSHASA 1269 ¶C. KINSHASA 1257 ¶1. (U) Preliminary vote tallies from the Independent Electoral Commission (CEI) through August 16 show 60 percent of the DRC's electoral districts have reported their presidential results. In the 101 of 169 districts having finished compiling ballots, incumbent President Joseph Kabila is leading Vice President Jean-Pierre Bemba 52 to 15 percent. Following the release of results from several voting districts in Bandundu province, Antoine Gizenga is currently in third place with nearly eight percent of the votes counted. Initial figures also show Nzanga Mobutu in fourth place with slightly more than five percent of the vote, and Oscar Kashala in fifth place with nearly three percent of those ballots counted through August 16. ¶2. (U) A total of 8,345,761 valid ballots have thus far been counted. Kabila has received 4,352,913 votes of that total, while Bemba has garnered 1,256,525 votes. Of those districts reporting results to date, 49 are from the eastern region of the DRC, 42 from the west, and the remaining ten districts from the central part of the country. According to preliminary figures released by the CEI, overall voter participation is nearly 74 percent, higher than the DRC's 62 percent voter turnout rate in the December 2005 constitutional referendum. ¶3. (U) Initial results continue to show Kabila's base to be in eastern DRC, while Bemba's is in the west, as expected. Of the 48 voting districts Kabila has won to date, 45 are in the eastern provinces of South and North Kivu, Maniema, Katanga, and Orientale. Kabila has also won one district each in the central provinces of Eastern and Western Kasai, plus one district in Bandundu. Bemba has won 22 districts overall thus far, with 19 coming from the western provinces of Bandundu, Bas-Congo and Equateur; Bemba has also won three districts in Eastern Kasai. All seven of the districts won by Gizenga are located in his home province of Bandundu. Eight of the ten provinces won by Mobutu come from his home province of Equateur. ¶4. (U) No vote totals have yet been announced from the capital Kinshasa. CEI President Abbe Apollinaire Malu Malu said in a press conference August 15 that election workers were still sorting through election material to find the tally sheets from several neighborhoods in the city so as to begin compiling the results. The problems in locating some election materials have consequently delayed the posting of results for Kinshasa's four electoral districts (with a potential 2.9 million voters),which cannot be announced until all polling stations in a particular district have been accounted for and tabulated. Throughout Kinshasa, there were 8,518 voting locations during the July 30 vote. As of August 16, more than 94 percent of all ballots from the country's 49,746 polling sites have been collected and have either been posted or are in the process of being verified. Malu Malu said, however, that he still expects the Commission will be able to announce nationwide provisional presidential results as planned by August 20. ¶5. (U) Following the arrest of four election workers in Kinshasa August 9 for attempting to falsify tally sheets (ref A),the CEI reported August 15 that the head of the voting compilation center in Kananga (Western Kasai) was arrested on similar charges. According to CEI officils, the suspect changed the results in favor of ne National Assembly candidate, giving the candidte one hundred more votes than previously recordd. CEI officials in Kananga were able to catch te mistake after noticing a discrepancy between the number of actual voters and those registered in he district in question. The arrested CEI worker enied having falsified any official documents. ¶6. (SBU) Comment: The arrest of several election orkers in one week for attemptd fraud is a sign the CEI does have safeguards in place. The fact that such incidents occurred (as opposed to having been caught),however, will likely only provide more "evidence" to those claiming the entire electoral process is illegitimate. Delays in posting results from Kinshasa, meanwhile, are beginning to cast doubt on whether the CEI can keep its promise of announcing provisional results by August 20. If no figures from the capital are posted in the next days, the chances of meeting KINSHASA 00001293 002 OF 002 the self-imposed August 20 deadline become less probable. End comment. MEECE