DRC ELECTIONS: WITH 46 PERCENT OF DISTRICTS

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 KINSHASA 001277 SIPDIS SENSITIVE SIPDIS E.O. 12958: N/A TAGS: PGOV KDEM KPKO CG ELECTIONS SUBJECT: DRC ELECTIONS: WITH 46 PERCENT OF DISTRICTS REPORTING, KABILA STILL IN LEAD REF: A. KINSHASA 1269 ¶B. KINSHASA 1257 ¶C. KINSHASA 1209 ¶D. KINSHASA 1162 ¶1. (U) As of August 14, 46 percent of the DRC's electoral districts have reported results from the DRC July 30 presidential election. In the 78 of 169 districts having announced results, incumbent President Joseph Kabila is leading Vice President Jean-Pierre Bemba 55 to 17 percent. Nzanga Mobutu, the son of former dictator Mobutu Sese Seko, is currently in third place with nearly 4 percent of the votes counted. Three other candidates -- Antoine Gizenga, Oscar Kashala, and Pierre Pay Pay -- each have approximately 3 percent of the initial results. A total of 6,211,584 valid votes have been counted thus far, with Kabila garnering 3,401,548 and Bemba receiving 1,028,651. Of those districts reporting results, 39 are from eastern DRC, 30 are from the west, and the remaining nine are from the central region of the country. ¶2. (U) The initial results continue to show Kabila doing well, as expected, in the eastern provinces. Kabila has won 37 voting districts overall, all but one (in Eastern Kasai province) from eastern DRC. Bemba has won 21 districts thus far, nearly all of which (except for three in Western Kasai province) are in the western part of the country. According to the preliminary vote counts, Mobutu has picked up five districts -- four in Equateur province and one in Orientale province; Kashala has won four -- one in Western Kasai, two in Eastern Kasai, plus one in Bas-Congo province; and Gizenga has won three districts --two in his native province of Bandundu and one in Bas-Congo. ¶3. (U) Bas-Congo is the first province to have posted all of its presidential results. According to CEI figures, Bemba carried the province with 36.2 percent (308,954 votes) of the overall 853,300 votes there, while Kabila came in second with 13.9 percent (118,684 votes). Kasavubu and Kashala were nearly tied for third place in Bas-Congo, garnering 6.59 percent (56,209 votes) and 6.50 percent (55,459 votes), respectively. ¶4. (U) According to the most recent initial figures from the Independent Electoral Commission (CEI),voter participation in the reporting districts was high. In the 78 reporting districts, voter turnout is currently 73.5 percent. The highest reported participation rate thus far was in the Fizi district with 99.3 percent (123,369 participants from the 124,233 registered voters); the lowest reported rate to date was in the Eastern Kasai district of Lupatapata, with 15.6 percent participation. (Note: Low voter turnout was expected because of an opposition party boycott of the election in the Kasai provinces, but participation in the region may be even lower due to election day violence during which several voting stations were destroyed, ref C. End note.) ¶5. (U) Results from the important Kinshasa voting districts have not yet been announced, but are expected soon according to CEI officials. According to CEI figures, more than 80 percent of ballots from the 49,746 polling sites have been collected and are in the process of being compiled and verified. CEI officials continue to say the Electoral Commission will announce nationwide provisional results for the presidential race no later than August 20. -------------- CEI OFFICIALS ARRESTED -------------- ¶6. (U) CEI officials confirmed that six election workers at the Kinshasa compilation center were arrested August 9 when they were caught trying to alter the minutes of voting operation records from various polling stations in the capital. CEI President Abbe Apollinaire Malu Malu said the Commission is currently investigating the incident. CEI spokesman Dieudonne Mirimo said the fact that the six were caught indicates "sufficient" safeguards are in place to prevent fraud during the vote counting process. -------------- 15 CANDIDATES ALLEGE "MASSIVE IRREGULARITIES" -------------- ¶7. (U) Fifteen of the 33 presidential candidates released a KINSHASA 00001277 002 OF 002 statement August 11 denouncing "massive irregularities" in the July 30 presidential and legislative elections, as well as the "complicit silence" of the international community in the face of such problems. The declaration follows a similar pre-election statement made by 19 of the presidential candidates (the 15 plus four others) that called for a "freeze" to the election campaign so that certain "shortcomings" of the electoral process could be addressed (ref D). The four candidates not signing on to the most recent statement are Justine Kasavubu, Oscar Kashala, Nzanga Mobutu, and Joseph Olenghankoy. (Comment: Perhaps not surprisingly, these four candidates are doing better in the initial election results than most of the other 15, who collectively have won approximately nine percent of the votes counted thus far. End comment.) ¶8. (U) The current declaration alleges the July 30 elections were "tainted by massive and flagrant irregularities" throughout the country with a "complicit silence" from the International Committee to Accompany the Transition (CIAT), MONUC, and national and international election observers. The 15 candidates charged that the election did not meet the minimal conditions for transparency and cannot in any way produce a new democratic order in the DRC. Among the alleged "irregularities" from the group of 15 are cases of fraudulent records of voting operations, voters being bribed, and the "uncontrollable number" of excess ballots that permitted the stuffing of ballot boxes in Kinshasa. The statement concludes that the CEI, CIAT, MONUC and public authorities will alone be responsible for the harmful consequences which would result from these problems. -------------- COMMENT: SOUR GRAPES -------------- ¶9. (SBU) The latest charges of voting irregularities from the group of 15 is little more than a case of sour grapes. Just as their pre-election appeal to suspend the campaign fell on deaf ears, so likely will this one. Initial voting results demonstrate these particular candidates had no widespread appeal among the voting population in the first place, and will unlikely be able to generate any popular support for their cause. More importantly, as other Congolese groups -- notably the Catholic Church and other religious groups -- announce they are initially satisfied with the electoral process, these candidates only look all the more like sore losers. End comment. MEECE