DRC ELECTIONS: KABILA CONFIDENT, UPBEAT

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 KINSHASA 001265

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 08/08/2016
TAGS: PGOV KDEM KPKO CG ELECTIONS
SUBJECT: DRC ELECTIONS: KABILA CONFIDENT, UPBEAT

REF: A. KINSHASA 1251


B. KINSHASA 1255

C. KINSHASA 1256

Classified By: PolOff KRBel for reasons 1.4 b/d.


1. (C) Summary: Ambassador and U.S. Congressman Donald
Payne met with President (and presidential candidate) Joseph
Kabila on August 5. Kabila noted that managing the responses
of losing candidates and the high expectations from the
Congolese people will be the most important challenges for
the next President -- regardless of who wins. End summary.


2. (C) The last of Rep. Payne's meetings with presidential
candidates (reftels) underscored one of the central questions
facing the DRC after its elections: what happens once the
official results are published? Kabila noted that even
though there were widespread reports of irregularities in the
elections themselves, the next phase of the process "must be
flawless" in order to remove tensions. While Kabila made
optimistic statements like "Losing candidates will still have
a role to play," and "Losers should know that there will be a
new election in five years," he believes that careful
management of dashed expectations will be the key to
maintaining equilibrium. He conceded that reconciliation
will be necessary for the sake of peace, but also stated
pointedly that "reconciliation is a two-way street." He said
that he would attempt to meet with other leaders and with
other candidates to "try to talk sense to them." He said
that the DRC's ability to reach its current level of peace
and unity meant that it could not fail to move forward after
elections. However, he noted that "the DRC is not Somalia --
we can have only one president at a time." It was clear that
he expects to be that president.


3. (C) Kabila emphasized the importance of the elections for
his country. He said the Congolese people voted not just to
exercise their democratic rights (a lofty ideal with little
practical relevance to most of the DRC's populace); rather,
they voted to bring change. Kabila pointed out that the
Congolese voted for peace, but they will now want jobs,
increased salaries, and tangible change in their lives. He
acknowledged that the new government will urgently need to
control its borders, limit the flow of resources out of the
country, and integrate and control its armed forces.


4. (C) In response to Rep. Payne's suggestion that the next
president should find some visible, symbolic project to focus
on during the first phase of the new presidency, Kabila
responded that there was so much need that "the whole country
must be rebuilt." He admitted that many of the projects
which would endear the presidency to the populace -- like
electrification -- are long-term efforts with little
possibility for immediate realization. Kabila envisions a
rebuilt infrastructure, which would spur economic growth,
which then would create social benefits. Although he
conceded that development of the social sector is the most
important goal, he plans first to rebuild the foundation.
When both the Ambassador and Rep. Payne mentioned the
Corporate Council on Africa and its probable interest in
assisting with private sector development, Kabila responded
that he would invite a delegation to visit the DRC soon -- if
he is declared the winner.


5. (C) Kabila realizes as well that other keys to long-term
peace in the DRC are security and good relations with
bordering countries. He said that despite some
well-publicized differences of opinion, the DRC's relations
with its neighbors are much improved. He noted that, "of
course, the scars of war take time to heal -- we can't do
this in two or three months, or even two or three years." He
stated that after the election, his neighbors will realize
they are dealing with an elected government rather than a
government of transition, and that now "there is no other
pretense" for disputes.


6. (C) When questioned directly about the presence of the
LRA in Garamba, Kabila asked if the U.S., with its money, its
technology, and its capacity, cannot control its own border
along a desert, how should the DRC be expected to manage
hundreds of miles of porous border in remote, dense jungle
with no roads? However, Kabila insisted that he is committed
to addressing the LRA and other issues (such as the
continuing flow of arms into the DRC through Uganda),and
affirmed that if elected, he will work directly with
President Museveni on bilateral matters.


KINSHASA 00001265 002 OF 002



7. (C) Notwithstanding continuing problems within the
country, Kabila asserted that internal security has improved
dramatically. He said that when he came to power, there were
over 15 armed groups operating in the Congo; today, he said,
there are only a handful. Kabila emphasized the importance
of a professional army, and the importance of building
capacity for internal security, and admitted that the DRC has
a long way to go. However, he stated, the vision and the
determination are there.


8. (C) Comment: Kabila seemed relatively relaxed, positive
and self-assured as he waited for the announcement of
official election results. In one sentence, he characterized
the situation for the DRC right now as "Good.... very
good.... very very good." He appears to have given a good
deal of thought to the DRC's immediate priorities, and
expressed interest in the role the U.S. private sector could
play in assisting development. Though he tempered his
descriptions of his future plans for the DRC with the
requisite qualifiers (for instance, "if I win..."),he seemed
to believe that he will be the victor at the end of the day.
End comment.


9. (U) Congressman Payne did not have an opportunity to
clear on this cable.
MEECE