DRC ELECTIONS: KABILA CONFIDENT, UPBEAT

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 KINSHASA 001265 SIPDIS SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 08/08/2016 TAGS: PGOV KDEM KPKO CG ELECTIONS SUBJECT: DRC ELECTIONS: KABILA CONFIDENT, UPBEAT REF: A. KINSHASA 1251 ¶B. KINSHASA 1255 ¶C. KINSHASA 1256 Classified By: PolOff KRBel for reasons 1.4 b/d. ¶1. (C) Summary: Ambassador and U.S. Congressman Donald Payne met with President (and presidential candidate) Joseph Kabila on August 5. Kabila noted that managing the responses of losing candidates and the high expectations from the Congolese people will be the most important challenges for the next President -- regardless of who wins. End summary. ¶2. (C) The last of Rep. Payne's meetings with presidential candidates (reftels) underscored one of the central questions facing the DRC after its elections: what happens once the official results are published? Kabila noted that even though there were widespread reports of irregularities in the elections themselves, the next phase of the process "must be flawless" in order to remove tensions. While Kabila made optimistic statements like "Losing candidates will still have a role to play," and "Losers should know that there will be a new election in five years," he believes that careful management of dashed expectations will be the key to maintaining equilibrium. He conceded that reconciliation will be necessary for the sake of peace, but also stated pointedly that "reconciliation is a two-way street." He said that he would attempt to meet with other leaders and with other candidates to "try to talk sense to them." He said that the DRC's ability to reach its current level of peace and unity meant that it could not fail to move forward after elections. However, he noted that "the DRC is not Somalia -- we can have only one president at a time." It was clear that he expects to be that president. ¶3. (C) Kabila emphasized the importance of the elections for his country. He said the Congolese people voted not just to exercise their democratic rights (a lofty ideal with little practical relevance to most of the DRC's populace); rather, they voted to bring change. Kabila pointed out that the Congolese voted for peace, but they will now want jobs, increased salaries, and tangible change in their lives. He acknowledged that the new government will urgently need to control its borders, limit the flow of resources out of the country, and integrate and control its armed forces. ¶4. (C) In response to Rep. Payne's suggestion that the next president should find some visible, symbolic project to focus on during the first phase of the new presidency, Kabila responded that there was so much need that "the whole country must be rebuilt." He admitted that many of the projects which would endear the presidency to the populace -- like electrification -- are long-term efforts with little possibility for immediate realization. Kabila envisions a rebuilt infrastructure, which would spur economic growth, which then would create social benefits. Although he conceded that development of the social sector is the most important goal, he plans first to rebuild the foundation. When both the Ambassador and Rep. Payne mentioned the Corporate Council on Africa and its probable interest in assisting with private sector development, Kabila responded that he would invite a delegation to visit the DRC soon -- if he is declared the winner. ¶5. (C) Kabila realizes as well that other keys to long-term peace in the DRC are security and good relations with bordering countries. He said that despite some well-publicized differences of opinion, the DRC's relations with its neighbors are much improved. He noted that, "of course, the scars of war take time to heal -- we can't do this in two or three months, or even two or three years." He stated that after the election, his neighbors will realize they are dealing with an elected government rather than a government of transition, and that now "there is no other pretense" for disputes. ¶6. (C) When questioned directly about the presence of the LRA in Garamba, Kabila asked if the U.S., with its money, its technology, and its capacity, cannot control its own border along a desert, how should the DRC be expected to manage hundreds of miles of porous border in remote, dense jungle with no roads? However, Kabila insisted that he is committed to addressing the LRA and other issues (such as the continuing flow of arms into the DRC through Uganda),and affirmed that if elected, he will work directly with President Museveni on bilateral matters. KINSHASA 00001265 002 OF 002 ¶7. (C) Notwithstanding continuing problems within the country, Kabila asserted that internal security has improved dramatically. He said that when he came to power, there were over 15 armed groups operating in the Congo; today, he said, there are only a handful. Kabila emphasized the importance of a professional army, and the importance of building capacity for internal security, and admitted that the DRC has a long way to go. However, he stated, the vision and the determination are there. ¶8. (C) Comment: Kabila seemed relatively relaxed, positive and self-assured as he waited for the announcement of official election results. In one sentence, he characterized the situation for the DRC right now as "Good.... very good.... very very good." He appears to have given a good deal of thought to the DRC's immediate priorities, and expressed interest in the role the U.S. private sector could play in assisting development. Though he tempered his descriptions of his future plans for the DRC with the requisite qualifiers (for instance, "if I win..."),he seemed to believe that he will be the victor at the end of the day. End comment. ¶9. (U) Congressman Payne did not have an opportunity to clear on this cable. MEECE