DRC ELECTIONS: KABILA LEADING BEMBA IN EASTERN

C O N F I D E N T I A L KINSHASA 001257

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 08/09/2016
TAGS: PGOV KDEM KPKO CG ELECTIONS
SUBJECT: DRC ELECTIONS: KABILA LEADING BEMBA IN EASTERN
VOTING DISTRICTS


Classified By: PolOff CBrown, reasons 1.4 b/d.


1. (SBU) With just five percent of all electoral districts
nationwide having reported their ballot counts, incumbent
President Joseph Kabila has taken a large and early lead over
Vice President Jean-Pierre Bemba. Six of the eight districts
reporting, however, are in eastern DRC, where Kabila was
expected to win by a wide margin. As of August 8, according
to internal figures from the Independent Electoral Commission
(CEI),eight of the 169 voting districts have finished
counting presidential ballots and have officially posted
their results. According to vote counts provided by CEI
officials, Kabila is leading Bemba in these areas by a nearly
six-to-one margin. The CEI figures show that in these eight
districts, Kabila garnered 395,672 votes to Bemba's 71,617.


2. (U) The CEI results report Kabila won overwhelmingly in
the districts of Kindu (Maniema province),Kolwezi ville,
Mutshatsha and Kalemie (Katanga province),and the city of
Beni (North Kivu province). Bemba meanwhile defeated Kabila
by wide margins in the Bas-Congo districts of Boma and
Songololo. In the Bas-Congo district of Moanda, however,
Oscar Kashala trumped both Kabila and Bemba by more than
7,000 votes.


3. (SBU) Voter participation rates in the eight reporting
districts show an average 75 percent voter turnout rate. The
highest reported participation level was in Kolwezi (86.92
percent),while the lowest was in Moanda (65.87). While the
overall participation rate is thus far higher than that
achieved during the December constitutional referendum (64
percent),the number is expected to decrease slightly as more
results become known from areas where turnout was likely
lower, such as the Kasais.


4. (U) The CEI is currently compiling results from the 49,746
nationwide polling sites at 62 regional centers across the
country. According to internal CEI figures, 49 percent of all
voting stations have as of August 8 sent their ballots and
tally sheets to these centers. CEI regulations, however,
prohibit the compilation centers from publishing results by
district until the material from all polling centers in a
particular district have been accounted for and verified. CEI
President Abbe Apollinaire Malu Malu said August 8 that
election workers are now conducting the counting and
compilation phase much faster than when such operations began
a week ago. Malu Malu said he remained confident the CEI
would still be able to announce provisional nationwide
results for the presidential race no later than August 20.


5. (C) Comment: While these initial (though reliable) results
show Kabila in a commanding lead over Bemba, they only
represent five percent of the total, and will not reflect
nationwide results. Bemba is expected to do well in much of
western DRC, including Kinshasa, and other candidates will
also pick up votes, for example Antoine Gizenga who is likely
to have done well in the province of Bandundu. As more
districts in the western and central regions of the country
finalize their compilations, Kabila's lead will surely
narrow. At this stage, however, it is still unclear whether
there will be a second-round run-off. End comment.
MEECE