DRC ELECTIONS: BEMBA CLAIMING VICTORY ABSENT

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 KINSHASA 001223 SIPDIS SENSITIVE SIPDIS E.O. 12958: N/A TAGS: PGOV KDEM KPKO CG ELECTIONS SUBJECT: DRC ELECTIONS: BEMBA CLAIMING VICTORY ABSENT OFFICIAL RESULTS ¶1. (U) Vice President Jean-Pierre Bemba has already begun claiming victory in the DRC's July 30 presidential elections, broadcasting purported results via television and radio stations he owns. Before polls even closed, the Bemba-owned station CCTV began reporting "results" from polling sites throughout the country indicating that Bemba was winning by a wide margin over incumbent President Joseph Kabila. In some instances, Bemba's stations declared the Vice President had received more than 50 percent of the vote. The Independent Electoral Commission (CEI) -- which is the only organization authorized to release election figures -- has not yet announced any results, as ballot counting and compilation are in progress. Any numbers being shown are, at best, partial and not representative of the overall electoral picture. ¶2. (SBU) In addition to spurious media reports, a flier has been circulating in Kinshasa which presents presumably "real" presidential election results, indicating an overwhelming Bemba victory in seven of the DRC's eleven provinces. The "results" in the flier are clearly fabricated. ¶3. (U) In response to the CCTV and other broadcasts, the CEI and the High Media Authority (HAM) issued a joint communique August 1 condemning the "flagrant violation" of the DRC's electoral law by publishing results. The communique states that the HAM and the CEI are worried about the conduct of the media, noting that the only figures that can currently be published are those posted at the different polling sites themselves. The joint statement also states that prematurely proclaiming results risks disturbing the electoral process and creating a dangerous climate of tension. The CEI and HAM called on media authorities to behave responsibly. Finally, the communique noted that in the case of future violations, legal measures may be taken to sanction television and radio outlets that break the law, including shutting down their operations entirely, to preserve peace and national unity. ¶4. (U) The International Committee to Accompany the Transition (CIAT) also issued a communique August 1 following a special meeting to discuss post-election activities. The communique noted as well the "abusive exploitation" by certain media and political actors of partial and incomplete election results. The CIAT statement said such acts cause trouble and could undermine public order. The CIAT underscored as well that the CEI has sole authority to issue election results, and it encouraged the Commission to inform the public regularly about the progress of vote counting and the electoral process. ¶5. (U) DigitalCongo, a private television station associated with President Kabila, has also been announcing selected polling results. Not surprisingly, DigitalCongo's broadcasts have reported Kabila winning significantly, mostly in the country's eastern provinces, over Bemba and all other opponents. DigitalCongo has not, however, declared Kabila to be the outright winner of the election in the first round of voting. ¶6. (U) Meanwhile, MONUC-run Radio Okapi on August 2 announced partial polling results from various locations across the country. Radio Okapi journalists, however, made a point of stating that such results were not reflective of overall numbers, noting that it is the CEI's responsibility to publish provisional voting figures. Based on these selected and very preliminary results, Kabila was winning by heavy margins in eastern cities, Bemba was ahead in Kinshasa, Mbandaka (Equateur province) and Matadi (Bas Congo province), and Antoine Gizenga of the Unified Lumumbist Party (PALU) was winning in Bandundu, his province of origin. While Radio Okapi's results are more trustworthy -- and present a more realistic electoral picture -- they are nonetheless unofficial. ¶7. (SBU) Comment: There is a deliberate disinformation campaign underway to influence public opinion about the election results. With a significant information void and most Congolese unaware of the next steps in the electoral process, Bemba is calculating that he can create the perception that he is the winner. It is unfortunate that some Western media outlets have already carried stories reporting that Bemba is leading. ¶8. (SBU) Comment, continued: The CEI is the only organization which has the authority and the capacity to declare results, and the Commission is expected to release provisional vote KINSHASA 00001223 002 OF 002 tallies no later than August 20. Until that time, rumors and misleading statements from candidates and their supporters will only muddy the political waters, sow confusion, and possibly lead to a rejection (by some) of the official results. End comment. MEECE