DRC ELECTIONS: KASAIANS HOLDING THEIR BREATH AS

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 04 KINSHASA 001181 SIPDIS SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 07/25/2016 TAGS: PGOV KDEM KPKO CG ELECTIONS SUBJECT: DRC ELECTIONS: KASAIANS HOLDING THEIR BREATH AS JULY 30 APPROACHES REF: A. KINSHASA 405 ¶B. KINSHASA 380 Classified By: PolOff CBrown, reasons 1.4 b/d. ¶1. (C) Summary: As the DRC's July 30 presidential and legislative elections draw closer, the prevailing attitude among Kasaians towards the electoral process is largely one of profound mistrust. Fueled by the belief that their region has been ignored and exploited by the central government for years, many Kasaians believe elections will change little, regardless of who is elected. Nonetheless, electoral campaigning is underway in both Kasais, and the major political parties are actively engaged in attracting disaffected supporters of the opposition Union for Democracy and Social Progress. Several factors will ultimately influence voter participation in the Kasais, but many voters appear ready to head to the polls; which party or candidate will win, however, remains very much an open question. End summary. ¶2. (U) PolOff visited Western and Eastern Kasai provinces July 9-13 to survey the state of political campaigning and voter attitudes in advance of the DRC's July 30 presidential and legislative elections. PolOff met with a variety of local actors, including various political party and civil society representatives, Catholic Church officials, MONUC personnel and Congolese military officers to determine how well election and security preparations were underway. (Note: Security concerns in the Kasais will be reported septel. End note.) While official electoral campaigning began June 29, such activity was just getting underway in Kananga and Mbuji Mayi (Western and Eastern Kasai provinces, respectively),and the amount of visible political propaganda (such as banners and posters) was far less than in the capital of Kinshasa. -------------- CAMPAIGNING STARTS OFF TIMIDLY -------------- ¶3. (SBU) The biggest and most visible political presence in Kananga and Mbuji Mayi is that of incumbent President Joseph Kabila. Billboards, posters and banners promoting Kabila could be seen throughout both cities and were in far greater number than most all other candidates combined. Other major parties, however, are actively contesting the Kasais. During the week of July 10, Vice Presidents Jean-Pierre Bemba (Movement for the Liberation of Congo, MLC) and Azarias Ruberwa (Rally for Congolese Democracy, RCD) made numerous campaign stops in both Kasai provinces. On July 11, Bemba held a rally of an estimated 4,000 people in Mbuji Mayi, and met similarly-sized crowds in Kananga and elsewhere in the provinces. Ruberwa even decided to kick off his nationwide presidential campaign in Kananga July 12, a strategic decision aimed at garnering the support of members from the UDPS, which is officially calling for a boycott of elections. Even less well-known presidential candidates, such as Joseph Olenghankoy of FONUS (who held a rally in Kananga July 10), have been campaigning in the Kasais. ¶4. (SBU) Despite the visits of these high-profile presidential candidates, though, few campaign materials and little political activity could be seen throughout the region, particularly from candidates for the National Assembly. In Tshikapa, the major diamond-producing center of Western Kasai, just a handful of banners or posters could be seen in the city, although PolOff did witness one small rally (of about 40 people) of the Unified Lumumbist Party (PALU) marching in the streets. In Kananga and Mbuji Mayi, more political posters were displayed (as there are more candidates in these cities),but most belonged to well-financed politicians such as Eastern Kasai Governor Dominique Kanku, a member of Bemba's MLC. Apart from these few examples, however, nearly two weeks into official campaigning the Kasais remained a political dead zone. ¶5. (C) The major political parties, however, have begun mobilizing, albeit slowly, in the Kasais, largely in an effort to attract those voters who may be disenchanted with the UDPS. In fact, many political parties are trying to present themselves as having the same objectives and message as the long-time opposition party. Donatien Mulamba of the RCD in Kananga said his party was out preparing for elections and educating voters every day. Mulamba, with some pride, said the RCD in the Kasais was the true "interlocutor" for the UDPS and represented the same ideals as the opposition KINSHASA 00001181 002 OF 004 party. Unlike his UDPS counterparts, however, Mulamba said his party would respect election results, so long as the elections were "transparent." Jean Beya, the PPRD coordinator in Kananga, expressed confidence in his party's chances, particularly in legislative elections, since his party's candidates "best understood" the needs of Kasaians. Beya's homologue in Mbuji Mayi, Prophete Kazadi, said the PPRD had put into place an extensive structure to campaign in each electoral district throughout Eastern Kasai. Kazadi also said Kasaians would surely vote for Kabila because they know him to be a "true Congolese" who fought to defend the Kasais during the country's civil war in the late 1990s. During his campaign appearances in the Kasais, Vice President Bemba continually noted potential problems in the electoral process, but promised to fight for transparency and if elected, to reverse the years of neglect towards the two Kasais. -------------- OSCAR WHO? -------------- ¶6. (C) Interestingly, one candidate who has claimed to have a wide base of support in the Kasais was seemingly unknown. Oscar Kashala, the American-educated oncologist and now presidential candidate, has often boasted of his rapport with the UDPS and with Kasaians in general. However, not a single political actor or other official PolOff met with in either Kasai province knew much -- if anything -- about Kashala. UDPS officials in Kananga and Mbuji Mayi claimed they had never met Kashala nor knew he was a candidate. Monsignor Marcel in Kananga said Kashala probably received some support from the intellectual and business classes, but outside of those sectors, he was not well-known at all. Even the governor of Western Kasai, who was born and has lived in the province most of his life, had never heard of Kashala. MONUC officials said they had seen very little campaign activity from Kashala's party, the Union for the Reconstruction of Congo (UREC); PolOff, in fact, saw just one Kashala poster in all of the Kasais. -------------- WHY THE SLOW START? -------------- ¶7. (SBU) Several factors can explain the relative lack of political activity (or hostility to it) in the Kasais. First, many of the parties at the provincial and local levels -- including the PPRD, MLC and RCD -- do not have the financial means to engage in widespread campaigning. Finances are generally controlled by party leaders in Kinshasa, and those funds have not yet made their way to the provinces, largely because party efforts are focused on the presidential race, not legislative elections. In addition, many of the parties have weak structures and leadership, resulting in poor management of already scare resources. Provincial party leaders therefore do not have the money to print banners, buy hats and t-shirts or conduct any other kind of campaigning. Thus, electioneering in areas such as the Kasais has materialized very slowly. -------------- PROFOUND MISTRUST... -------------- ¶8. (C) The dominant attitude among many Kasaians -- particularly members of the UDPS -- tends to be one of profound mistrust of the electoral process, leading to lower than average voter participation rates and general antipathy towards political activity. This sentiment is based in part on Kasaian tendencies not to accept "outsiders," as well as a history of having their interests overlooked. As no "true" Kasaian is managing the government or the Electoral Commission, the population maintains its suspicions about the credibility of elections. In addition, the Kasais have for years been exploited and marginalized by the central government, with little of the wealth generated by the diamond industry returning to the provinces. Kasaians tend to believe government officials in Kinshasa deliberately marginalize their region, especially noting that the Inga-Shaba power line (a major electricity source from the Congo River into the interior provinces) completely bypasses both provinces. ¶9. (C) UDPS President Etienne Tshisekedi has used the above factors to enforce his call to not take part in the DRC's KINSHASA 00001181 003 OF 004 democratic process. Less than one-third of registered Kasaian voters participated in the December 2005 constitutional referendum. (Note: The low level of participation, however, was limited largely to the main cities of Kananga, Mbuji Mayi, Tshikapa and Lodja. Other locations throughout the provinces had much higher levels of participation. End note.) Monsignor Marcel Maduila of the Catholic Church in Kananga said many Kasaians believe the international community has already chosen Kabila as its candidate, and that the President will win regardless of how the Congolese actually vote. Marcel added that Kasaians in particular will never accept that Kabila won legitimately because they believe he controls the Electoral Commission and thus the voting process. Representatives of the PPRD and RCD in Mbuji Mayi said they, too, had fears about the credibility and transparency of the electoral process, particularly the CEI's ability to guarantee a free election. -------------- ... BUT HOPES FOR HIGHER PARTICIPATION -------------- ¶10. (C) Despite these attitudes many Kasaians said they want to vote and will go to the polls July 30. CEI coordinator Kapambu said people are ready to participate in elections and are tired of all the delays being called for by political actors. Kapambu said he believed participation rates will be higher for the general elections than the referendum because the candidates running for office have a vested interest in mobilizing voters -- an element which did not exist during the referendum. Tshiongo Tshibikubula, the governor of Western Kasai (and a PPRD member),said he was confident that people want elections and realize this could be their last opportunity to change their country. Tshibikubula added that despite UDPS claims to the contrary, many Kasaians did register to vote, but have been quiet about it because they did not want to cross party leaders. Mamady Kouyate, the MONUC Head of Office in Mbuji Mayi, agreed with Tshibikubula's assessment, saying that Kasaians, particularly SIPDIS those outside the major cities, did register in larger numbers, and have expressed a strong desire to vote in elections. Kouyate added, though, that he worried whether participation would be very strong due to UDPS influence or intimidation. Kouyate said low participation rates could add to the perception that the elections were not credible, but he predicted that in Mbuji Mayi, participation rates would be around 40 percent, slightly higher than the referendum. -------------- UNKNOWN FACTORS: INDEPENDENTS AND BOYCOTTING -------------- ¶11. (C) Complicating any predictions on the outcome of the elections -- particularly at the legislative level in the Kasais -- is the potential support to independent candidates. MONUC officials and others in the two provinces said many former UDPS members quietly registered as independent candidates, but the number who actually did so is not known. Between the two Kasais, there are 77 independent candidates for the National Assembly among a total of 1362 overall (running for 79 seats). Governor Tshibikubula claimed some UDPS supporters, realizing they could not be elected by staying with the party, switched allegiances and registered as candidates with other parties. If true, voters will be more likely to vote for individuals based on their supposed UDPS backgrounds, rather than on current party affiliations. ¶12. (C) Another factor affecting election results will be voter turnout. Whether the UDPS can convince the majority of Kasaians to stay home and not vote on July 30 remains debatable, as signs of waning UDPS influence have begun to appear. (Note: UDPS support and influence in the Kasais in the pre-election period will be reported septel. End note.) The PPRD in particular has been actively working to motivate its existing base of party members to head to the polls so as to maximize its chances of winning, particularly if disgruntled UDPS voters stay home. PPRD officials in both Kananga and Mbuji Mayi outlined well-organized campaign strategies and were the most visible campaigners in either province. The MLC and the RCD, meanwhile, have also been campaigning hard, but the depth of support in both provinces appeared much shallower than that of the PPRD. If the UDPS is successful in engineering a Kasaian boycott, though, the effect will most likely aid the prospects of the PPRD and Kabila, who invariably will have the most motivated supporters and the means to get people out to the polls. KINSHASA 00001181 004 OF 004 Higher turnout rates, by contrast, will boost support for other parties such as the RCD and MLC (and possibly Antoine Gizenga from PALU),at the expense of the PPRD, as UDPS sympathizers who do vote will most likely choose anyone other than Kabila. (Note: This dynamic explains in part why the PPRD has not been active in dissuading the UDPS from boycotting the vote. End note.) -------------- LOGISTICS AND CIVIC EDUCATION -------------- ¶13. (SBU) The CEI, meanwhile, is fully engaged in the last stages of logistical preparations for the vote. CEI coordinator Kapambu said as of early July, all election material -- including ballot boxes, voting booths and ballots themselves -- had been delivered to major distribution points in both provinces. Kapambu said his biggest concern was the final phase of deployment to the more than 3,700 voting stations in Western Kasai alone, as the CEI did not have enough working vehicles to transport election kits to all parts of the province. Kapambu said he also worried about the reliability of some poll workers, many of whom have not yet been paid for their efforts during the December referendum. CEI national spokesman Dieudonne Mirimo, who just finished his own tour of the Kasais, said the CEI was making arrangements to provide alternate transport in the region, and had secured the services of private contractors to store and transport material. Despite these logistical hiccups, however, Kapambu said he was confident the CEI would be ready to hold elections as scheduled. ¶14. (C) As in many other regions of the country, the Kasais suffer from a general lack of civic education regarding the electoral process. CEI coordinator Kapambu said the Commission was launching a more focused education campaign in the last weeks before the elections. But members of civil society in both Kasais said many voters still do not have a good understanding of such things as how to mark the ballot, how votes will be counted, and how winners are declared. Many actors, however, are actively engaged in educating the population, including the Catholic Church, civil society, and international donors. In Mbuji Mayi, for example, the National Democratic Institute and IFES (with funding provided by USAID) have trained several thousand people on the electoral process through its Democracy Resource Center. IFES has also partnered with several universities in the region to educate professors and students on the basics of the democratic process. MONUC officials in both provinces, however, said due to poor management by the CEI and the generally low literacy rates and education levels, many Kasaians will have little understanding of the electoral process if and when they head to the polls July 30. -------------- -------------- COMMENT: ATTITUDES CHANGING, BUT PEOPLE STILL WARY -------------- -------------- ¶15. (C) The absence of the UDPS from the July 30 ballot will provide other political parties the opportunity to make inroads in the region, and perhaps further marginalize the influence of the opposition party and its followers. In discussions with various sectors of Kasaian society, it appears that many of those who are registered to vote want to head to the polls. Many Kasaians, however, are still suspicious of the entire electoral process. That distrust -- coupled with a profound misunderstanding of the process -- remains the dominant theme of Kasaian political discourse. Overcoming that mentality and convincing Kasaians to respect election results (especially at the presidential level) will be a difficult task for all political actors. Nonetheless, a definite political shift is underway in the Kasais, as political leaders realize that voters in this region are effectively up for grabs. Kasaians themselves, meanwhile, appear to be holding their breath and waiting for the storm of July 30 pass without incident. End comment. MEECE