ITURI UPDATE: NEARLY 2,700 MILITIA MEMBERS HAVE

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 04 KINSHASA 001091 SIPDIS SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 07/06/2016 TAGS: PGOV KPKO CG SUBJECT: ITURI UPDATE: NEARLY 2,700 MILITIA MEMBERS HAVE SURRENDERED REF: A. KINSHASA 959 ¶B. KINSHASA 1068 ¶C. KINSHASA 783 ¶D. KINSHASA 800 Classified By: PolOff CBrown, reasons 1.4 b/d. ¶1. (C) Summary: According to MONUC reports, nearly 2,700 militia members in Ituri have voluntarily surrendered and turned in their weapons, including one high-level militia commander. Several factors are apparently motivating militia members to come out of the bush, including the desire to participate in upcoming elections, the capture of several commanders, successful military operations by MONUC and the FARDC, and a widespread civic education campaign encouraging disarmament. The large number of militia members who have surrendered, however, risks derailing the entire process, as the Congolese agency charged with running the demobilization program is poorly managed and lacks adequate resources. Consequently, with insecurity on the rise in other parts of Ituri, these new ex-combatants ironically could pose an even greater threat to Ituri's security situation. End summary. ¶2. (C) MONUC military officials report that as of July 3, 2,688 Ituri militia members have voluntarily handed over their weapons and surrendered to MONUC peacekeepers since the District's demobilization and community reinsertion (DCR) program was relaunched in June. Nearly 1,000 militia members have surrendered since July 1. (Note: Other MONUC officials believe these figures to be too high due to double-counting. End note.) In addition, more than 1,800 weapons have been collected, including some 890 AK-47 rifles and more than 120,000 rounds of ammunition. Officials with MONUC and the Armed Forces of the DRC (FARDC) said they believe the majority of militia members who wish to surrender have now done so. The disarmament deadline, however, was extended to July 15 (vice June 30, ref A) by FARDC Ituri Operations Commander General Nsiona to accommodate the large number of surrendering militia members, as well as to allow the Congolese disarmament agency (CONADER) enough time to establish the 12 planned demobilization sites throughout Ituri. MONUC military officials said that deadline may likely be extended a second time to July 30. -------------- MILITIA MEMBERS FROM ALL GROUPS SURRENDERING -------------- ¶3. (C) According to MONUC demobilization figures, members from nearly all of Ituri's militias are surrendering. The majority of militia members reportedly have come from the ranks of the Union of Congolese Patriots (UPC),the Party for Unity and Safeguarding of the Integrity of Congo (PUSIC),and the Patriotic Force of Resistance in Ituri (FRPI). MONUC reports that some militia members from the People's Armed Forces of Congo (FAPC) and Peter Karim's Front for National Integration (FNI) have also turned in their weapons and opted for demobilization. MONUC officials said most surrenders are taking place in areas south of Bunia in Irumu territory as well as the area bordering Lake Albert in Djugu territory. These areas have generally been the strongholds of the militias mentioned above, particularly the FRPI. ¶4. (C) On June 27, FRPI leader Colonel Emile Muhito Akobi surrendered to MONUC Bangladeshi peacekeepers in Aveba. Muhito, the head of the political and military wing of the FRPI and a member of the Ngiti tribe, is the highest-ranking militia figure to have turned himself in thus far. He was accompanied by two of his security personnel, Kokoro Dumarai and John Bahati. Muhito (along with nearly 20 members of his extended family) was transferred June 29 to MONUC headquarters in Bunia for his security and further questioning. Muhito conducted a radio interview in Bunia urging FRPI militia members still in the bush to surrender and join the DCR program, saying that their security could be guaranteed. Muhito also reportedly said in the interview that FRPI forces now totaled some 600 members and were "quite disorganized." (Note: These comments were made the same day the FRPI attacked FARDC troops at Tchei and subsequently retook control of the town, ref B. End note.) -------------- VERIFYING THE NUMBERS -------------- ¶5. (C) Previous MONUC estimates of militia strength in Ituri KINSHASA 00001091 002 OF 004 placed around 2,000 hard-core fighters still remaining in the bush. The 2,600-plus militia members who have surrendered, however, does not necessarily discredit the previous estimates. MONUC officials in Bunia said many of those surrendering are likely "temporary" militia members -- those who respond to a "call to arms" and fight with various militias for a week, then return home after being paid or when a particular military objective is achieved. MONUC-Bunia Head of Office Charles Gomis said there is also some suspicion that many demobilizing militia members have previously gone through the DCR program and are now trying again to collect the stipend given to ex-combatants. (Note: Many ex-combatants, failing to find work or economic security after demobilizing, have rejoined their former militias in recent months. End note.) Gomis said the names of all militia members who turn themselves in will be cross-checked against the national database in Kinshasa of all previously registered ex-combatants. According to Gomis, those who attempt to demobilize a second time will not be granted any monetary benefits. -------------- FACTORS DRIVING DEMOBILIZATION -------------- ¶6. (C) Several factors can account for the large number of militia members who have surrendered in the past few weeks. Aside from the disarmament deadline declared by MONUC and the FARDC (along with the subsequent promise of forcible disarmament after that deadline),MONUC and Congolese officials said the upcoming elections are also factoring into militia members' decisions to disarm. General Nsiona said that among the newly demobilized militia members he has spoken with, many said they are coming out of the bush to participate in the July 30 elections. Many of Ituri's militias have evolved into political parties, such as the UPC and PUSIC, which are now fielding candidates for the National Assembly and provincial legislatures. Nsiona said he suspected that the leaders of these parties have been encouraging their military wings to surrender their forces so as to increase the number of potential supporters and votes for their candidates. ¶7. (C) MONUC military intelligence officials agreed that the elections are a significant factor behind the current wave of disarmament, but also pointed to a successful civic education program which has also encouraged demobilization. MONUC Chief Military Information Officer Lt. Col. Mike Burke said the fact that the DCR program has restarted (after having closed in May 2005) is also attracting militia members. Burke said many former militia members are driven to disarm simply out of economic considerations, realizing they have an opportunity to make money for surrendering their weapons. ¶8. (C) Another element contributing to the wave of demobilization is the lack of leadership in the militias themselves. Burke said the majority of militia members turning themselves in are coming from groups that have been long dormant operationally or whose leaders have been killed or captured. Burke said a large percentage of militia members are from the UPC-L, whose founder, Thomas Lubanga, was recently arrested by the International Criminal Court and is awaiting trial at The Hague. In addition, militia leader India Queen was captured by MONUC peacekeepers in May (ref C),further contributing to a leadership void in the UPC. Consequently, according to MONUC and FARDC officers, the militias have been less willing to fight and more willing to consider disarmament. Rudi Sterz, the director of the NGO German Agro Action in Bunia, said militia members from the FRPI are surrendering because the few remaining leaders of that militia can no longer pay their forces. ¶9. (C) Burke said the voluntary surrender of Muhito has also had a positive effect on militia disarmament. Burke pointed out that several hundred militia members turned themselves in after Muhito conducted his radio interview, noting especially that he was being treated well by MONUC officials. Burke also said Muhito has been giving his interrogators a significant amount of useful intelligence regarding militia strength and activities. Muhito reportedly said that contrary to reports from the FARDC and MONUC, FRPI militia leader Cobra Matata was not wounded during military operations, and was, in fact, in good health. ¶10. (C) MONUC officials in Bunia also believe the seizure of Tchei on May 21 during a joint MONUC-FARDC operation (ref D) KINSHASA 00001091 003 OF 004 is another major factor in the militia members' surrender. MONUC Ituri Brigade Commander General Mahboob Haider Khan said Tchei has long been a symbolically important town under militia control and has served as the base for many militia operations in recent months. Mahboob said the first big waves of surrendering militia members appeared immediately after Tchei came under FARDC control. The loss of their former stronghold, Mahboob explained, further demoralized many militia members, leading them to consider surrender. -------------- PROBLEMS AND SETBACKS -------------- ¶11. (C) The recent loss of Tchei back to militia control (ref B) has reportedly slowed the pace of demobilization in recent days, according to MONUC officials, who said such military successes bolster morale among militia forces. In addition, Gomis said recent threats made by FNI leader Peter Karim have contributed to fewer militia members disarming. On June 29, Karim reportedly threatened surrendering militia members in Abu (approximately 26 miles north of Bunia) with retaliation for turning in their weapons. MONUC officials reported that while not many of the militia members surrendering have come from areas under Karim's control (mostly in northern Djugu territory),there have been far fewer coming forward since Karim issued his threat. ¶12. (C) Other problems have arisen among the transit sites established for the demobilizing militia members. Run by CONADER, many of them are ill-equipped to deal with the large number of ex-combatants who have arrived in the past three weeks. MONUC officials report that sites planned to handle 200-300 people are now holding twice as many, thus leading to severe shortages of basic needs like food and water and creating tense atmospheres in the sites themselves. CONADER mismanagement of the sites and the DCR program has further exacerbated the problem. For example, on July 3 nearly 800 disarmed militia members at the transit site in Nizi (approximately 13 miles north of Bunia) began threatening staff at the site as well as MONUC peacekeepers assigned to guard the facility, and demanded their weapons be returned. The demobilized militia members had apparently been waiting at Nizi for one week to register as ex-combatants and receive food rations. CONADER officials, however, had refused to open the site as planned on June 30 because it lacked a sufficient number of entry kits and did not have the personnel to open the site's kitchen facilities. Ultimately, MONUC peacekeepers were authorized July 3 to distribute food rations to the waiting militia members, temporarily defusing the situation. CONADER opened the site July 4 and distributed food to some 165 ex-combatants. Other documentation activities, however, including payments to demobilizing militia members, have not yet begun. ¶13. (C) CONADER has been criticized for its lack of preparation and resources for the DCR program. According German Agro Action, CONADER is badly mismanaged and does not have the facilities to deal adequately with the 2,600-plus demobilized militia members. Moreover, the UNDP, which helps fund CONADER, does not have the capacity to follow-up on caring for and reintegrating ex-combatants. MONUC said CONADER simply does not have enough material on hand for all the militia members coming in from the bush, especially items like welcome kits, which include simple items like soap, flip-flops, and a new set of clothes. These problems have emerged at nearly all of CONADER's disarmament sites through Ituri and may have discouraged other militia members from surrendering. MONUC reports that an additional 2,000 kits are expected to arrive in Bunia from Kinshasa within the next few days. -------------- COMMENT: A CRISIS IN THE MAKING -------------- ¶14. (C) The number of surrendering militia members in Ituri is impressive and marks a potentially important turning point in bringing security to the region. Many Ituri militias, however, are still well-armed and pose significant threats, as shown by the recent fighting south of Bunia. Political and military pressure by MONUC and the FARDC thus must continue against the militias to prevent them from gaining any momentum or sympathy from the FRPI seizure of Tchei. But the fact that more than 2,600 supposed militia members have turned themselves in demonstrates a definite willingness to KINSHASA 00001091 004 OF 004 bring the District's long conflict to an end. Critical to this effort, though, is the ability of CONADER and its partners to provide services to the ex-combatants. Thus far, unfortunately, the Congolese demobilization agency has largely failed in its mission, which risks turning these former militia members back to the bush. Another important factor will be -- to the extent possible -- preventing new efforts, domestic and foreign, to reorganize and rearm the area's militias, which has occurred in the past following relative success against the militias. As insecurity and fighting is rising again in Ituri, the presence of a large group of possibly disaffected ex-combatants (particularly centered in Bunia) presents a serious crisis in the making. End comment. MEECE