RCD/N PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE ROGER LUMBALA, A

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 KINSHASA 001076 SIPDIS SENSITIVE SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 07/03/2016 TAGS: KDEM PGOV PHUM PREL SUBJECT: RCD/N PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE ROGER LUMBALA, A POTENTIAL SPOILER? Classified By: Pol Intern DECorbin, reasons 1.4 b/d ¶1. (C) Summary: On June 12, Pol intern met with Rassemblement Congolais pour la Democratie - National (RCD/N) Presidential candidate Roger Lumbala to discuss the candidate's presidential vision in the run-up to the elections. The meeting took place at Lumbala's house in Kinshasa, against the backdrop of opposition Union for Democracy and Social Progress (UDPS) protest rallies in the city. Members of the RCD/N participated alongside the UDPS in the rallies. The meeting was part of a series of meetings designed to gain insight into the intentions of the smaller players in the presidential elections in the run up to July 30. Lumbala quickly implied that, though he has no real platform, he does still have the power to disrupt the elections with violence through his remaining armed forces in the provinces and his alliance with Etienne Tshisekedi's UDPS. End Summary. -------------- Background: Lumbala the Spoiler? -------------- ¶2. (U) There are 33 presidential candidates on the ballot for July 30, few of whom are real contenders. Roger Lumbala, although one of the minor candidates, has a disproportionate disruptive potential. Lumbala played a role in the civil war as a militia leader who, according to him, fought along side the likes of vice-president Jean-Pierre Bemba. Subsequently, Lumbala became president of the RCD/N, a splinter group of the RCD that he is heading in the upcoming elections. At the beginning of the transition, Lumbala was named Minister for External Trade in the Transitional Government. He was removed from this position in 2005 amid charges of corruption. (Note: He was subsequently replaced by his wife Chantal Ngalula Mulumba. End Note.) ¶3. (U) When asked about his impressions of recent events and his intentions concerning the June 29-July 30 campaign period, Lumbala did not mince words: what the Congo needed was a dialogue, not elections and the RCD/N was there to organize and pay for it. Lumbala stated that, while everyone agrees with the need for elections, they could not take place without a dialogue. In addition, the imposition of the elections at the will of the Independent Electoral Council (CEI) President Abbe Apollinaire Malu Malu and the International Committee to Accompany the Transition (CIAT) was unacceptable not only to the RCD/N but to the Congolese people as well. This, he said, was evident by the day's activities. -------------- Security: He's Got it...I've Got it. -------------- ¶4. (C) Lumbala made numerous attacks on President Kabila throughout the interview. In addition to comments on his poor education, his general lack of capacity to govern, his ethnicity and his poor French, Lumbala spoke of the destabilizing influence in Kinshasa of the non-integrated Special Presidential Security Guard (GSSP). Lumbala made several references to the GSSP as the President's personal militia, while referring to the fact that he had already integrated all of his former RCD/N army into the FARDC. Yet, later in the interview, perhaps after growing more comfortable, Lumbala revealed that he may still have an army at his disposition. ¶5. (C) When speaking of his intentions for security sector reform, Lumbala cited his alleged close relations with the principle actors in eastern DRC, from Ugandan President Museveni to militia leader Peter Karim. His solutions for reform were simple enough; through his personal contacts, Lumbala could reason with the principle actors in the east to end the continuing militia violence. He also stated that he would accelerate FARDC integration by employing his former skills as a general. Lumbala then went on to state that any elements that would not deal with him directly could be dealt with easily enough through a phone call to "one of (his) men." When asked what he could mean by such a statement, Lumbala repeated that he could have someone detained with a simple phone call. -------------- God and Family, That's All We Need -------------- KINSHASA 00001076 002 OF 002 ¶6. (SBU) When asked about his proposed platform for the upcoming electoral period, Lumbala stated that he has two mottos: God and Family. Lumbala stated that he was first and foremost a reformer in God's name. Lumbala also spoke at length about the reform of the family being essential for the country; from there, he stated, all of the other problems of the Congo could be tackled. When pressed on specific measures that he could offer the Congolese people, Lumbala continually referred back to his core message of a renaissance of the Congolese family, stating that that was the only viable base from which to start. -------------- Comment -------------- ¶7. (C) Lumbala essentially is a candidate watching the DRC Presidential elections from the sidelines, but is someone to watch for his spoiling potential. His views, however, as reflected in this meeting are fairly typical of many of the old-school Congolese politicians who are finding it difficult to adapt to a new context. For too many, deals among the political class elite (e.g. the desired "dialogue" in lieu of elections) and intimidation tactics are more comfortable than policy ideas and accountability before a voting public. With a prospect of loss of influence as a result of elections, further delays and/or accusations of western influence are the only readily available options, and we are likely to hear more such talk as the election campaign progresses. With all Lumbala's tough talk, however, there has been no real evidence of RCD/N-led disorder to this point, and it is questionable to what extent Lumbala can mobilize forces to generate significant problems. MEECE