DRC NON-COMMITTAL ON FUTURE AU PRESIDENT

C O N F I D E N T I A L KINSHASA 000107

SIPDIS


E.O. 12958: DECL: 01/23/2016
TAGS: PREL SU AU CG AF
SUBJECT: DRC NON-COMMITTAL ON FUTURE AU PRESIDENT

REF: 05 STATE 226663

Classified By: PolOff CBrown, reasons 1.4 b/d.


1. (C) At a January 23 meeting with Minister of Foreign
Affairs Raymond Ramazani (septel),the Ambassador raised the
issue of Sudanese President Bashir's potential selection as
president of the African Union. Ramazani reported that the
DRC's delegation at the Khartoum summit is being headed by a
relatively junior official, an MFA Vice Minister, and that
the DRC's influence would consequently be limited. After
reviewing the bidding of potential candidates, Ramazani said
that the DRC would be supporting their neighbor, Republic of
Congo President Sassou-Nguesso, for the AU chairmanship, but
again indicated that the DRC would not be in the forefront of
the debate. Ramazani added it would be difficult to predict
the outcome at Khartoum.


2. (C) Ramazani said most African heads of state were aware
of the problems Bashir would pose as president of the African
Union. He acknowledged that Bashir's dossier was
"embarrassing" with regard to Darfur. Ramazani said a
Sudanese presidency of the AU may risk discrediting the
organization and many African countries are expressing the
same sentiment. He added that this vote, and the possibility
of a Sudanese presidency, is a crisis for the AU.


3. (C) Ramazani said that Sudan had not formally sought the
DRC's support for its candidacy. He did note, however, that
in discussions with Sudanese officials, the GOS had implied
it was seeking AU chairmanship and would welcome support.
Ramazani reported that the DRC had made no commitments. He
also made note of the principle agreed to in Abuja at the
last AU summit that the selection of the next AU president
should not necessarily be based on the location of the next
summit.


4. (C) Ramazani's analysis of the voting blocs indicated that
most of the countries of east Africa would support Bashir,
though not Ethiopia. He said the greatest opposition to
Bashir would come from central Africa, along possibly with
the Republic of South Africa. Ramazani offered a caveat
regarding South Africa's position, however, noting that South
Africa is always eager to demonstrate its independence from
perceived favored Western policy. The real question, in
Ramazani's mind, would be how the countries of north Africa
(particularly Egypt, Tunisia, Algeria and Libya) would vote.
Ramazani said he was also not sure how many of the countries
of west Africa would support Bashir.


5. (C) Ramazani observed that Chad is strongly opposed to the
Sudanese candidacy, and has proposed instead an extension of
Nigerian President Obasanjo's tenure. He added, however, that
a number of countries resent Nigeria's perceived bullying
tactics, a problem exacerbated by Nigeria's badly handled
attempts to get itself selected as a new UNSC permanent
member. Alternatively, there has been discussion of a central
African candidate focused on Sassou-Nguesso, although it was
unclear as to how far that support extended. Ramazani
anticipated that Gabon President Bongo would be Sassou's
principal champion in Khartoum.


6. (C) Comment: The GDRC's decision to send a second-tier
minister to the Khartoum summit indicates its lack of
interest in larger AU affairs. While the GDRC recognizes that
a Bashir presidency would discredit the AU, it has not
campaigned against him nor actively supported an alternate
candidate. Given that the two leading candidates for the AU
presidency come from neighboring states, Ramazani made it
clear that the DRC will be maintaining a low profile on the
issue in Khartoum. End comment.
MEECE


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