DRC NON-COMMITTAL ON FUTURE AU PRESIDENT

C O N F I D E N T I A L KINSHASA 000107 SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 01/23/2016 TAGS: PREL SU AU CG AF SUBJECT: DRC NON-COMMITTAL ON FUTURE AU PRESIDENT REF: 05 STATE 226663 Classified By: PolOff CBrown, reasons 1.4 b/d. ¶1. (C) At a January 23 meeting with Minister of Foreign Affairs Raymond Ramazani (septel),the Ambassador raised the issue of Sudanese President Bashir's potential selection as president of the African Union. Ramazani reported that the DRC's delegation at the Khartoum summit is being headed by a relatively junior official, an MFA Vice Minister, and that the DRC's influence would consequently be limited. After reviewing the bidding of potential candidates, Ramazani said that the DRC would be supporting their neighbor, Republic of Congo President Sassou-Nguesso, for the AU chairmanship, but again indicated that the DRC would not be in the forefront of the debate. Ramazani added it would be difficult to predict the outcome at Khartoum. ¶2. (C) Ramazani said most African heads of state were aware of the problems Bashir would pose as president of the African Union. He acknowledged that Bashir's dossier was "embarrassing" with regard to Darfur. Ramazani said a Sudanese presidency of the AU may risk discrediting the organization and many African countries are expressing the same sentiment. He added that this vote, and the possibility of a Sudanese presidency, is a crisis for the AU. ¶3. (C) Ramazani said that Sudan had not formally sought the DRC's support for its candidacy. He did note, however, that in discussions with Sudanese officials, the GOS had implied it was seeking AU chairmanship and would welcome support. Ramazani reported that the DRC had made no commitments. He also made note of the principle agreed to in Abuja at the last AU summit that the selection of the next AU president should not necessarily be based on the location of the next summit. ¶4. (C) Ramazani's analysis of the voting blocs indicated that most of the countries of east Africa would support Bashir, though not Ethiopia. He said the greatest opposition to Bashir would come from central Africa, along possibly with the Republic of South Africa. Ramazani offered a caveat regarding South Africa's position, however, noting that South Africa is always eager to demonstrate its independence from perceived favored Western policy. The real question, in Ramazani's mind, would be how the countries of north Africa (particularly Egypt, Tunisia, Algeria and Libya) would vote. Ramazani said he was also not sure how many of the countries of west Africa would support Bashir. ¶5. (C) Ramazani observed that Chad is strongly opposed to the Sudanese candidacy, and has proposed instead an extension of Nigerian President Obasanjo's tenure. He added, however, that a number of countries resent Nigeria's perceived bullying tactics, a problem exacerbated by Nigeria's badly handled attempts to get itself selected as a new UNSC permanent member. Alternatively, there has been discussion of a central African candidate focused on Sassou-Nguesso, although it was unclear as to how far that support extended. Ramazani anticipated that Gabon President Bongo would be Sassou's principal champion in Khartoum. ¶6. (C) Comment: The GDRC's decision to send a second-tier minister to the Khartoum summit indicates its lack of interest in larger AU affairs. While the GDRC recognizes that a Bashir presidency would discredit the AU, it has not campaigned against him nor actively supported an alternate candidate. Given that the two leading candidates for the AU presidency come from neighboring states, Ramazani made it clear that the DRC will be maintaining a low profile on the issue in Khartoum. End comment. MEECE NNNN