ON CAMPAIGN EVE: INCONCLUSIVE ROUND 2 MEETING OF

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 KINSHASA 001032 SIPDIS SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 06/29/2016 TAGS: PGOV PREL KDEM CG ELECTIONS SUBJECT: ON CAMPAIGN EVE: INCONCLUSIVE ROUND 2 MEETING OF TRANSITION LEADERS REF: KINSHASA 976 Classified By: Classified by Ambassador Roger Meece. Reason 1.4 (b/d) ¶1. (C) Summary: Key officials of the DRC Transition, including Vice Presidents, members of the International Committee to Accompany the Transition (CIAT),the Independent Election Commission (CEI) President, and others gathered the afternoon of June 28 to continue last June 21's session (reftel) to discuss the way forward. In a marathon meeting lasting from 3:00 - 11:00 p.m., nothing was decided. Vice President Ruberwa doggedly pushed for a general political "consultation" meeting starting Thursday, June 29, involving Sun City signatories and others to discuss "June 30," a formula which would de facto call into question the existing electoral plan and calendar. Ruberwa was essentially supported by VPs Bemba and Z'Ahidi, with others opposed. Alternate suggestions, for example limiting the agenda to election security and transparency, or obliging participants to commit to the July 30 election date, were rejected by Ruberwa, who insisted on a broad agenda and participant list. The meeting broke up with no agreement, and contrary to normal practice, no statement to the press. In the meantime, the CEI and CIAT are proceeding with a previously-agreed-upon plan to hold a meeting of the 33 Presidential candidates Thursday afternoon to discuss campaign and election issues, a meeting now potentially in jeopardy. It is unclear how things will evolve, but Ruberwa's continued intransigence could create new risks and dangers over coming days. End summary. Gathering Again the Institutions -------------- ¶2. (C) An "Inter-institutional Meeting" was convened Wednesday afternoon, June 28, at the Palais de la Nation, to follow last's week similar session (reftel) to discuss how to proceed in coming weeks. President Kabila is traveling in the east, and Vice President Yerodia presided in his stead. All Vice Presidents, the Presidents of the National Asssembly and Senate, Interior Minister Mbemba, four of the five heads of the "citien" commissions (dealing with elections, media, uman rights, and "truth and reconciliation") were ll present, along with all Ambassadors or Charge composing the International Committee to Accompany the Transition (CIAT). The agenda consisted oftwo items: first, follow-on questions 
to Indepenent Election Commission (CEI) President Malu Malu arising from his briefing provided last week; and second, proposals for a "consultation" session or process to examine aspects of election planningand other issues. ¶3. (C) Getting underway at 3:0 p.m., the meeting began with Vice Presidents Rberwa and Z'Ahidi posing numerous questions to Mlu Malu regarding specifics of election preparation. Several of these covered ground reasonably wel-known, prompting the French Ambassador to ask i the Vice Presidents were not getting any informtion from their own representatives in the CEI. There was spirited discussion, however, of existig arrangements for "floating" party observers atpolling stations, and the resulting need for a semingly excess number of surplus ballots needed topermit such observers to vote at any place in th country where they might choose to be. All present agreed that the issue, and some unresolved issues centered on media access during the campaign and candidate and voter registration, merited further discussion and rapid resolution. Moving to Deep Waters -------------- ¶4. (C) The discussion morphed into the second agenda item, and the heart of the discussion, regarding the desirability, form, and terms of reference for a "consultation" centered on the election process. Ruberwa laid out a proposal calling for a relatively large meeting including all Sun City Accord signatories, other civil society members, presidential candidates, and representatives of all Transition institutions to convene the next day, Thursday, June 29. The proposed agenda would include candidate and voter security, media access, the new code of good conduct, and election transparency (note: to include the excess ballot and other issues). He added, however, that the situation (French "sort") of those not involved in the process must also be considered (note: essentially a reference to the opposition UDPS, who have consistently opposed the election process. KINSHASA 00001032 002 OF 003 End note). Ruberwa suggested that the meeting could be concluded the same afternoon, or if necessary extend into the June 30 holiday, but last no longer than a day and a half. It could be chaired by President Kabila, or co-chaired by the Vice Presidents. Ruberwa also noted that the idea of involving Republic of Congo President Sassou, Gabonese President Bongo, or others had been brought up in recent discussions he had in Congo-Brazzaville and Gabon. ¶5. (C) Vice President Z'Ahidi essentially endorsed the Ruberwa proposal, but a variety of other speakers expressed reserves or opposition. Interior Minister Mbemba and Senate President Marini questioned whether such a session could be concluded quickly. A number of other Congolese and some CIAT members expressed concerns over the wisdom of opening the agenda to include those basically opposed to the election process. The Angolan Ambassador (who is Dean of the Diplomatic Corps) asked what methodology was to be utilized to get to specific results. The discussion turned into an extended discussion of what the proposed consultation should attempt to cover. Miasma -------------- ¶6. (C) Under Yerodia's ineffectual chairmanship, the discussion wandered and became increasingly contentious. Ruberwa focused on the necessity of discussing June 30, the original final Transition deadline date under the Sun City Accords, and the necessity of convening parties to discuss how to proceed beyond that date. He implicitly accepted the already-agreed consensus that the July 30 first-round election date should be sacrosanct. He failed to reconcile that,however, with an open discussion of the validity of continuing the Transition government beyond June 30 which would in and of itself call into question the existing election process and calendar. His argument basically came down to asserting that the majority in the room would be part of the Transition institutions and therefore would clearly opt to move forward to July 30. The Truth and Reconciliation Committee President stated that there seemed to be two groups, one seeking how to move most effectively toward July 30 elections, and one seeking to "revalidate" the election process (i.e. the UDPS supporters). Ruberwa would not accept the distinction, asserting that all groups must be involved in the consultation discussion. ¶7. (C) Several individuals attempted to identify some common ground, or suggest at least some concrete way forward. CEI President Malu Malu observed that there seemed to be two groups of concerns, one set focused on election procedures and candidates, and the other dealing with broader topics. Why not at least convene a meeting of candidates to deal with the former, even if immediate agreement could not be reached regarding the second group of issues? Yerodia failed to push such proposals to conclusion, and they tended to get lost in the muddle of varied interventions. The British Ambassador suggested that participants in any consultation meeting be preconditioned on their commitment to the July 30 first-round election date, as that had already been agreed upon by the group as sacrosanct. Ruberwa explicitly rejected the idea, asserting such a general consultation had to be left open to those holding other views, apparently including those opposed to the entire process. Even as the hour was approaching 10:00 p.m., Ruberwa continued to insist that a general consultation meeting could and must be convened on Thursday, June 29, covering a broad agenda. Both Z'Ahidi and Bemba eventually endorsed the idea; most everyone else in the room was opposed. Inconclusive Conclusion -------------- ¶8. (C) Eventually it became increasingly clear that, for Ruberwa, the issue of the June 30 anniversary date and the situation of those outside the process (i.e., the UDPS) were the central issues of the proposal. As the hours wore or, CEI President Malu Malu observed that participants were increasingly simply restating their positions, with no progress toward a common position apparent. He suggested that if President Kabila and the four Vice Presidents could agree on a formula, they should organize a consultation meeting under their authority as the "Espace Presidentiel," inviting representatives of the other institutions as desired (comment: a proposal that would shift the onus for failure or KINSHASA 00001032 003 OF 003 stalemate of such a meeting squarely on the shoulders of the President and four Vice Presidents, instead of more widely shared by all those in the room. End comment). Not surprisingly, Ruberwa, Bemba, and Z'Ahidi did not pick up on the idea. At around 11:00 p.m., Z'Ahidi said the meeting should agree that consultations are urgently needed, and charge the Espace Presidentiel with working out the "modalities" for the session. Without the opportunity for further debate or discussion, Yerodia at that point said that he and others were tired and hungry and closed the meeting. As weary participants filed from the room, neither CIAT members nor others were sure of what, if anything, had been concluded. ¶9. (C) Contrary to normal practice, neither SRSG Swing, nor other participants spoke to the press waiting at the front of the building. The government's Secretary General told the press simply that a statement would be released the next day. Candidate Meeting Goes Forward -------------- ¶10. (C) Concurrent with the inter-institutional session and per a previous agreement by the CEI and CIAT, invitations were issued June 28 to all 33 Presidential candidates for a June 29 meeting. The purpose of this session is to review campaign rules and guidelines, and provide the candidates an opportunity to express concerns regarding campaign and elections procedures. That meeting is scheduled for Thursday afternoon at 4:00 p.m. It is not clear whether the "consultation" discussion now places the candidate meeting in jeopardy. Comment: Election Message Further Diluted -------------- ¶11. (C) Polls and anecdotal evidence suggest that a majority of Congolese are still not convinced that elections will be held on July 30. Unfortunately, the inconclusive discussions regarding a proposed "consultation" adds to the ambiguity of the current environment, and will tend to reinforce those doubts. It is unclear how, or even if, Ruberwa really would expect a one-or two-day meeting to resolve fundamental questions regarding the integrity of the election process, much less the UDPS' consistent refusal to take part. Indeed, Ruberwa has made a public statement that he could accept a further delay to the election calendar, suggesting that his real agenda is other than that put forward in the inter-institutional meeting. It is no coincidence that the three Vice Presidents supporting the broad consultation proposal. Ruberwa, Bemba, and Z'Ahidi find themselves in weak electoral positions. While we view Bemba as seeking to preserve all options, privately encouraging UDPS claims even while he continues to campaign, Ruberwa has few election options available, and Z'Ahidi has virtually no broad organization or popular base at all, in both cases rendering their future actions somewhat unpredictable. Given the murk emanating from the June 28 meeting, it is not clear what if anything will happen June 29. It is all but impossible that Kabila would agree to a broad consultation meeting as outlined by Ruberwa, a session that would strongly imply opening the basic tenets of the election process to new negotiations. Our best guess is by inertia, the candidate meeting will take place Thursday, albeit with an uncertain number of candidates showing up, and the consultation meeting will not. ¶12. (C) The other immediate pending question is what the UDPS will be able to do to mobilize crowds on the streets on Friday, June 30 as party leader Tshisekedi would clearly like to do. At this point, it appears unlikely that the party, even if given implicit or explicit support by others, will be able to generate mass numbers. All information to Embassy forces suggests that Congolese security forces appear confident about their ability to manage what is expected to be relatively modest protest numbers June 30. There is, however, clearly a great deal left to write in the chapter on DRC elections before we get to July 30. End comment. MEECE