"A TWO-HORSE RACE": PHILLIPS AIDE HANDICAPS

C O N F I D E N T I A L KINGSTON 000230

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

DEPARTMENT FOR WHA/CAR (BENT)

E.O. 12958: DECL: 02/01/2016
TAGS: PGOV KCRM PINR JM
SUBJECT: "A TWO-HORSE RACE": PHILLIPS AIDE HANDICAPS
FEBRUARY 25 INTERNAL PNP ELECTION TO SUCCEED PM PATTERSON

REF: 05 KINGSTON 458

Classified By: Ambassador Brenda LaGrange Johnson. Reasons 1.4(b) and
(d).

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Summary
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1. (C) On January 30, a close confidant of National Security
Minister Peter Phillips discussed the campaigns of Phillips,
Local Government, Community and Sport Minister Portia Simpson
Miller, Finance Minister Omar Davies, and former Water and
Housing Minister Karl Blythe to succeed P.J. Patterson as
party leader and prime minister. With the internal PNP
election set for February 25, our contact was confident that
Phillips has sewn up sufficient backing among the 4000 voting
PNP delegates, and locked in the support of a majority of the
PNP's parliamentary group. He echoed frequent criticisms of
Simpson Miller that she is ill-prepared to be prime minister,
faulted Davies for running his campaign badly, and dismissed
Blythe as standing no chance. Our contact also judged it
unlikely that significant violence would erupt surrounding
the February 25 election, and he expressed concern at several
unsavory political operatives with Simpson Miller's campaign.
Many PNP-ers fault Patterson for not having sewn up the
succession issue more cleanly and quietly. End Summary.


2. (C) On January 30, XXXXXXXXXXXX (protect),a senior aide
to, and confidant of, National Security Minister Peter
Phillips, discussed with DCM and P/ECouns the state of play
leading up to the February 25 Peoples National Party (PNP)
internal election. The PNP election is being held to
determine which of four senior PNP officials -- Phillips;
Minister of Local Government, Community and Sport Portia
Simpson Miller; Finance Minister Omar Davies; or former PNP
minister Karl Blythe -- will succeed P.J. Patterson as party
president and as prime minister.

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Phillips Confident of Victory
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3. (C) Noting that the winning candidate need only secure a
plurality among approximately 4000 PNP delegates authorized
to vote on February 25, XXXXXXXXXXXX said that after more than
two years of nationwide campaigning and quiet, grassroots political organizational work, Phillips has received firm
commitments of support from perhaps 1500 delegates - far
more, he maintained, than any of the other candidates. He
readily acknowledged that Simpson Miller enjoys nationwide
personal popularity far in excess of Phillips or the other
candidates, but emphasized that February 25 will be a contest
among voting PNP delegates only, while adding that Phillips
enjoys the backing of a majority of PNP Members of
Parliament. In a sly aside, XXXXXXXXXXXX observed that Phillips
"believes he has the support of the U.S. Embassy." DCM
agreed that we have worked closely with Phillips on security
and law enforcement issues, and appreciated both the
Minister's pragmatism and his willingness to cooperate in
matters of mutual concern. DCM added, however, that we have
also worked well - if less closely given their respective
current portfolios - with Simpson Miller and Davies.


4. (C) In XXXXXXXXXXXX's estimation, Phillips and Portia Simpson
Miller are the only viable candidates. "It's a two-horse
race," he enthused. Like many of her critics, XXXXXXXXXXXX
opined that Simpson Miller lacks the substance to be prime
minister. (Note: On February 2, Simpson Miller reportedly
pulled out of a four-way, nationally televised debate between
the four PNP candidates, citing previous commitments and
uncertainties about the firmness of the date. Not
surprisingly, her critics were quick to point to her
withdrawal as evidence that Simpson Miller was afraid to risk
facing her opponents in such a forum. End note.)
Furthermore, said XXXXXXXXXXXX, key PNP leaders and supporters
would refuse to back Simpson Miller even if she were to
prevail among the delegates. He listed Foreign Minister K.D.
Knight, who has declared his support for Phillips and who
clashed memorably and profanely with Simpson Miller in
Parliament in 2005, as particularly opposed to Simpson
Miller, with the influential Education Minister, Sharon
Hay-Webster, similarly disposed. Reminded that Simpson
Miller is easily the most popular politician of either party
with the masses, XXXXXXXXXXXX, without disputing the point,
replied that "they don't necessarily want to see one of their
own up there" as prime minister.

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Corruption Concerns
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5. (C) Perhaps for effect, XXXXXXXXXXXX professed concern about
support for Simpson Miller's campaign from notably
unscrupulous figures such as Paul Burke, a 1970's-era
radical-turned-businessman and backroom PNP operative.
XXXXXXXXXXXX described Burke as being politically savvy and
intellectually gifted, and therefore of great use to Simpson
Miller's campaign. At the same time, he said, given Burke's
past shady dealings and associations, Burke had attached
himself to Simpson Miller's campaign because he is able to
exercise greater influence with her, and because he hopes to
benefit from a Simpson Miller victory. Minister of Commerce,
Science, Technology, and Energy Phillip Paulwell is another
PNP "politician with a past" who is backing Simpson Miller,
said XXXXXXXXXXXX. (Note: Paulwell, reportedly a longtime
associate of and close collaborator with Burke, was a rising
political star until 2001, when he approved a USD 4 million
loan to a private telecom company known to be in financial
trouble, and which subsequently collapsed. End note.)

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Davies and Blythe: XXXXXXXXXXXX's Also-Rans
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6. (C) XXXXXXXXXXXX was entirely dismissive of Karl Blythe's
low-profile campaign, saying that Phillips had won over key
delegates from under Blythe's nose, in Blythe's own home
constituency. He characterized Blythe as erratic and
unpredictable, and observed that he seemed to be in the race
"because of ego." (Note: Blythe was forced to resign as
Water and Housing Minister in 2002 after he was found to have
acted improperly in supervising a low-income housing grant
program. End note.) Though more respectful of Finance
Minister Omar Davies and his "Campaign for Prosperity",
XXXXXXXXXXXX said that Davies has run his campaign badly thus
far, causing private sector donors to lose faith and reduce
considerably their funding for his effort. According to
XXXXXXXXXXXX, Patterson persuaded Davies to enter the race to
provide a more promising (and palatable) alternative than
Blythe to Phillips and Simpson Miller, and because Patterson
harbors long-standing grudges against both Phillips and
Simpson Miller. Patterson, he explained, has never forgotten
that it was Phillips who conveyed then-Prime Minister Michael
Manley's 1991 request for Patterson's resignation as Finance
Minister after Patterson was found to have improperly waived
fuel import duties for a PNP crony who was also the local
manager for a multinational petroleum company. As for
Simpson Miller, she earned Patterson's ire by daring to run
(unsuccessfully, as it turned out) against him to succeed
Manley in 1992, and by frequently missing or arriving late to
Cabinet meetings over the years, which Patterson viewed as a
lack of respect for his authority.

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PNP: Unity or Internecine Violence?
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7. (C) Asked to assess prospects for electoral violence
(among supporters of the various PNP candidates) around the
February 25 election date, XXXXXXXXXXXX conceded the possibility
of localized incidents. He downplayed the likelihood of
widespread violence, however, saying that he expected the
party to unite - however grudgingly - behind the winner.
Patterson has publicly declared his intention to turn over
the reins to a successor by April. Publicly and behind the
scenes, he will do everything he can to resolve any disputes
among the contenders or between the factions to preserve
party unity for the next elections, which are due by October

2007. Moreover, XXXXXXXXXXXX continued, most PNP supporters also understand that, regardless of who succeeds Patterson in
February, that individual will need the backing of a unified
party to prevail over the JLP's Bruce Golding in the general
election. Given any government's control of resources, he
said, PNP loyalists can be expected to circle wagons behind
their party's leader rather than face the prospect of being
voted out of office.

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Comment
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8. (C) We had the distinct impression that XXXXXXXXXXXX's
willingness to discuss the campaign suited his boss.
Notwithstanding his close affiliation with Phillips, however,
XXXXXXXXXXXX's reflections offer useful insights into the
internal PNP maneuvering to succeed Patterson. XXXXXXXXXXXX's
assessment that Phillips and Simpson Miller are the two most

likely victors on February 25 tracks with what we are hearing
elsewhere, publicly and privately. That said, we note that
Blythe has already surprised most observers when, in February
2005 (Ref B),he easily outpolled Simpson Miller and Phillips
in the race for one of the four PNP vice-presidencies. For
his part, Davies is both respected and reviled for,
respectively, his adroit handling of the GOJ's tricky
financial situation, and for whatever economic discomfort
Jamaicans attribute to his policies. The Finance Minister's
Achilles heel in the race might also be the perception among
some in his party (including delegates) that, unlike Phillips
and Simpson Miller, he has not sufficiently paid his dues by
moving through a succession of PNP positions over the years.
Jamaican politics are not for the faint-hearted or for the
pure, and all four candidates doubtless have their skeletons.
That said, the involvement of Paul Burke, Danhai Williams,
Kenneth "Skeng Don" Black, and their ilk with the Simpson
Miller campaign - or indeed any other - is cause for some
concern.


9. (C) Comment (cont'd): The JLP, with its long history of
fractiousness, underwent a particularly messy and very public
leadership succession struggle in 2004-2005, while the PNP
has always prided itself on its ability to resolve its
differences internally. After 14 years in office, Patterson
is stepping down having become Jamaica's most successful
politician by winning the past four general elections.
Still, his refusal or failure to sew up the succession issue
more cleanly has already led to what some party faithful
consider an unseemly battle, with four prominent PNP
candidates publicly enumerating each others' faults and
failures before a national audience. XXXXXXXXXXXX may well be
correct in predicting that PNP's need for unity will prevail
over the possibility of violence in the run-up to, or
following, the February 25 party election. We certainly hope
so, as PNP supporters from whichever camp presumably would
not want to give undecided voters reason to prefer the PNP in
the general elections, which must be held by October 2007.
Given what is at stake later this month, however - leadership
of the PNP and the country leading into general elections,
and with the PNP having formed the government since 1989 -
the possibility that one or another faction's supporters will
be dissatisfied with the outcome, and willing to cause
trouble, cannot be dismissed.


10. (SBU) Further developments in the PNP succession saga
will unfold in the coming days. All four PNP candidates had
agreed to square off in a one-off, nationally televised
debate on February 7, which would have forced them more
clearly to define themselves vis-a-vis their opponents.
Simpson Miller's "unavailability", if true, could reasonably
be interpreted as evidence that she does not wish to risk
embarrassment, but organizational questions surrounding the
event (unrelated to her participation) have also cast doubt
as to whether the debate will come off. Either way, one or
more of the weaker candidates may well withdraw at some point
before February 25 after negotiating with one of the stronger
camps to support their candidate...for a price.
JOHNSON