JAMAICA: WINDOW TO CALL ELECTIONS CLOSING

C O N F I D E N T I A L KINGSTON 001662 SIPDIS SIPDIS STATE WHA FOR (BUDDEN) E.O. 12958: DECL: 08/21/2016 TAGS: PREL PGOV JM SUBJECT: JAMAICA: WINDOW TO CALL ELECTIONS CLOSING REF: A. KINGSTON 1482 ¶B. KINGSTON 1546 ¶C. KINGSTON 1579 Classified By: Ambassador Brenda LaGrange Johnson for reasons 1.5 (b) a nd (d). ¶1. (SBU) SUMMARY. Prime Minister Portia Simpson Miller's (PSM) window to call general elections is quickly closing. Under an informal agreement with CARICOM countries not to hold elections within six months of Cricket World Cup (CWC), PSM must hold elections before October 11 or wait until after CWC in 2007. There must be at least three weeks between the date that elections are called and the date that elections are held. Consequently, PSM must call elections by mid-September to beat the October 11 deadline. Some speculate that PSM will use the Peoples National Party (PNP) Annual Conference, scheduled for September 21-24, to launch her campaign. However, a recent poll commissioned by the Gleaner Newspaper shows PSM's approval rating is down 14% since March, thus making it somewhat less likely she will call elections before CWC. End Summary. ¶2. (SBU) Prime Minister Portia Simpson Miller's (PSM) window to call general elections is quickly closing. Due to an informal agreement with CARICOM countries not to hold elections within six months of Cricket World Cup (CWC),PSM needs to call elections within the next few weeks or wait until after CWC in 2007. Elections before CWC seem less and less likely with each passing day; however, some speculate that PSM will use the Peoples National Party Annual Conference, scheduled for September 21-24, to launch her campaign. ¶3. (SBU) A recent poll commissioned by the Gleaner Newspaper shows PSM's approval rating is down 14% since March, making it somewhat less likely she will call elections before CWC. ¶4. (U) According to the Gleaner opinion poll, 38% of persons asked would vote for the PSM led PNP, but only 26% would vote for the Jamaica Labor Party (JLP) headed by Bruce Golding. While the PNP maintains a 12 point lead over the JLP, PNP support is down from 52% in March to 38% in July. ¶5. (SBU) Most observers agree that PNP popularity is down for a number of reasons: (1) the PNP seems divided, particularly in light of the rift that has formed between PSM and Peter Phillips, Minister of National Security, who was her number one opponent for the position of leader of the PNP; (2) the cement scandal (ref c); (3) corruption scandals involving the PNP, particularly the Whitehouse scandal (ref c); and (4) a feeling by some that PSM has been ineffective as Prime Minister. ¶6. (SBU) It has been reported by the local press that in order to reunify her party and make amends with Phillips, PSM may offer him the position of Deputy Prime Minister at the PNP Annual Conference. Interestingly, a Prime Minister may designate a permanent Deputy Prime Minister but is not required to do so. For example, former Prime Minister P.J. Patterson did not designate a permanent Deputy Prime Minister, rather he had a designate each time he traveled out of the country. ¶7. (C) COMMENT: Despite the fact that PSM remains ahead of Golding in the polls, her lead is shrinking and she may decide to postpone elections until after CWC when Jamaicans will (if things go well) be proud and exuberant after hosting the event. However, PSM still has a few weeks before the October 11 cut off and, since the CARICOM agreement is an informal one, PSM may be inclined to call elections at the PNP annual conference and let elections slip a little past the deadline. END COMMENT. JOHNSON