LIKELY ISSUES IF ELECTIONS CALLED

C O N F I D E N T I A L KINGSTON 001579 SIPDIS SIPDIS STATE FOR WHA E.O. 12958: DECL: 08/10/2016 TAGS: PREL PGOV ECON JM SUBJECT: LIKELY ISSUES IF ELECTIONS CALLED REF: A. KINGSTON 1482 ¶B. KINGSTON 1546 ¶C. KINGSTON 1298 ¶D. KINGSTON 1286 ¶E. KINGSTON 418 Classified By: Ambassador Brenda Johnson for Reasons 1.5 (b) and (d). ¶1. (SBU) SUMMARY: Prime Minister, Portia Simpson Miller (PSM),leader of the Peoples National Party (PNP),remains silent on the timing of the next general election. If elections are not called soon, PSM will have to wait until after Cricket World Cup (CWC) (scheduled to begin in March 2007),due to an informal agreement among CARICOM countries not to hold elections within six months of CWC. Regardless of when elections are held, the following are some of the issues that are likely to be at the heart of the debates: crime; corruption; PetroCaribe; Venezuela; cement; CWC; and election spending. End Summary. ¶2. (C) PSM, leader of the PNP, has not commented on the timing of elections. The likelihood that elections will be called prior to CWC diminishes with each passing day because the GOJ informally agreed not to hold elections within six months of the CWC, which is scheduled to begin in March 2007. Off the record, several members of the Jamaica Labor Party (JLP) told NAS Director that they now anticipate elections will be held after CWC since PSM probably wants to take advantage of the good will and pride that a successful CWC would create. ¶3. (SBU) The following issues are likely to be at the center of the debate between the PSM and Bruce Golding, leader of the JLP: crime; corruption; PetroCaribe; Venezuela; cement; CWC; and election spending. ¶4. (SBU) Crime is a constant concern and the JLP will probably attempt to capitalize on the high crime rate by arguing PSM,s government is inept at fighting crime. Last May, the JLP released its crime reduction plan that largely focused on reducing police and political corruption in an effort to make the Jamaica Constabulary Force more effective. ¶5. (C) Corruption is also a constant issue in Jamaica and will almost certainly be capitalized upon by the JLP. Since the JLP has been out of power since the mid-80s, they have been denied the opportunity to loot the public coffers. Consequently, the JLP will be quick to point out PNP improprieties such as the Whitehouse Hotel Scandal that recently forced Dr. Vin Lawrence to resign from all of his seats on public boards and his position as treasurer of the PNP. ¶6. (C) PetroCaribe may arise in several contexts. First, the issue of whether PetroCaribe funds are being spent appropriately (ref C) may continue to grab headlines throughout the election. Second, PetroCaribe is expected to come up in the context of Jamaica's growing ties to Venezuela. The JLP is liable to continue to argue the dangers of PetroCaribe and Venezuela's growing influence in Jamaica. ¶7. (C) Cement scandals (ref D) and the ineptitude of Minister of Industry, Technology, Energy and Commerce, Phillip Paulwell, who is charged with overseeing the cement industry, continues to haunt PSM and will probably loom throughout the election. ¶8. (SBU) Whenever the election is held, the JLP will likely argue that too much money is being spent (or was spent) in connection with the CWC (ref E) and that the spending does nothing to advance the interests of Jamaicans. The PNP will almost certainly try to make the most of a "successful" CWC (regardless of whether the event is actually successful). ¶9. (SBU) PSM is expected to increase spending before the election, and the JLP will no doubt argue that: it is an attempt to buy votes; Jamaica does not have the money to support the spending; and, perhaps, the money was spent inappropriately. ¶10. (C) COMMENT. With PSM's popularity on the wane, she is certainly pondering whether waiting until after CWC, when Jamaicans likely will be proud and jubilant after hosting the event, would increase her chances of election. With CWC likely to dominate the headlines next spring, perhaps people will lose focus on the PNP,s shortcomings, thus undermining the JLP's main message which is, "at least we are not the PNP." End Comment. JOHNSON