PORTIA'S CLOCK IS TICKING: JAMAICAN ELECTIONS

C O N F I D E N T I A L KINGSTON 001482 SIPDIS SIPDIS STATE FOR WHA E.O. 12958: DECL: 07/27/2016 TAGS: PREL PGOV JM SUBJECT: PORTIA'S CLOCK IS TICKING: JAMAICAN ELECTIONS LIKELY Classified By: Ambassador Brenda LaGrange Johnson for Reasons 1.5(b) an d (d). 1.(SBU) SUMMARY: Prime Minister Portia Simpson Miller (PSM) is not required to call elections until October 2007, but most observers expect elections will be held in September or October. PSM remains extremely popular; however, her poll numbers are receding and her chances of winning an election diminish with each passing month. End Summary. 2.(SBU) Although PSM is not required to call elections until October 2007, most expect elections will be called for September or October. PSM remains extremely popular; but, her advantage over Opposition Leader Bruce Golding is receding and her chances of winning an election continue to diminish with each passing month. 3.(U) Both the People's National Party (PNP) and Jamaica Labor Party (JLP) are actively preparing for elections. The PNP administration embarked on a massive voter registration drive and is finalizing its list of parliamentary candidates. The JLP completed its candidate list and has just begun a five day island-wide campaigning tour. 4.(SBU) Elections will not likely take place in August for two main reasons: 1) a majority of the polling stations are run by school teachers who are on vacation in August and are difficult to locate; and, 2) at the end of August families are preoccupied with preparing their children to return to school and many will be frustrated that they do not have the money to pay school fees or purchase books. The PNP worries this frustration will negatively affect their support. 5.(C) Elections are not likely to occur after October due to an informal agreement among CARICOM countries not to hold elections within six months of Cricket World Cup, scheduled to begin in March 2007. Although October is within that time frame, it is regarded with some flexibility and winning the election is the PM's primary focus. 6.(C) COMMENT: Many had expected elections shortly after her ascent to leader of the party in March, but PSM chose instead to wait. Therefore, PSM may push to have elections in early or mid-September in order to win an election and secure her own mandate before the PNP's Annual National Convention that will take place in mid-September. End Comment. JOHNSON