C O N F I D E N T I A L KINGSTON 001342

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

DEPARTMENT FOR WHA/CAR (COLLINS), EB/ESC/IEC/EPC (MCMANUS)

E.O. 12958: DECL: 07/06/2016
TAGS: PGOV PREL PINR EPET KCOR JM
SUBJECT: JAMAICAN ELECTIONS: OPPOSITION CONFIDENT BUT ALSO
CONCERNED

REF: A. KINGSTON 1268


B. KINGSTON 555

C. KINGSTON 418

D. KINGSTON 925

Classified By: Ambassador Brenda Johnson, reasons 1.4 (b) and (d)


1. (C) Summary: In a July 3 meeting with Audley Shaw,
opposition Jamaica Labor Party (JLP) Spokesman for Finance
and Public Service, Shaw predicted that national elections
would be called for late August or early September. He said
that a series of scandals could open the door for the first
JLP victory since 1989, and hoped that Jamaicans had grown
weary of the "endemic corruption" of the ruling People's
National Party. Shaw expressed concern about possible
Venezuelan interference in the election, however, noting the
JLP's recent public stance that the PNP was too friendly with
Chavez and risked alienating the United States. While
acknowledging that the JLP had no plans to alter or amend the
PetroCaribe Agreement if elected, he decried the lack of
oversight in the way the funds were disbursed, and claimed
the JLP would make the process "transparent." If the
Jamaican people do not opt for change at the upcoming
elections, he concluded, it would mean the end of electoral
politics for himself, and most likely for JLP leader Bruce
Golding. End summary.

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JLP: Late Summer Elections Likely
--------------


2. (C) In a meeting with Audley Shaw, opposition Jamaica
Labor Party (JLP) Spokesman for Finance and Public Service,
on July 3, Shaw predicted that national elections would be
called for late August or early September. The conventional
wisdom, he said, was that the new Prime Minister, Portia
Simpson Miller of the People's National Party (PNP), who
ascended to her position through internal party selection as
leader, thus had yet to be given "a mandate of her own." He
further pointed to an ongoing cement scandal (refs. A and B)

that refuses to go away, and which has hurt Simpson Miller's
poll numbers. Unless called before October 2006, Simpson
Miller risks having to wait until after the Cricket World
Cup, which (if unsuccessful) could also have a deleterious
effect on her approval rating (ref. C). (Note: Countries
hosting Cricket World Cup matches in March and April 2007
have informally agreed not to hold elections in the six
months prior to the event. End note.)


3. (C) Shaw dismissed rumors that the PNP might sabotage its
own chances in the elections as a way to oust Simpson Miller
from her position as party leader. Without offering any
corroborating evidence, he expressed his opinion that the
administration and its leaders were too deeply entrenched in
what he called "shady dealings" and "corrupt practices," all
of which risk being uncovered if the JLP were to come to
power. He added his concern that this election season could
prove a violent one, alluding darkly to the murder of a PNP
candidate-hopeful in recent months: Christine Hewitt, a music
promoter who had hoped to be the PNP's candidate for South
Trelawny. While he implied that Hewitt had run afoul of some
powerful PNP leaders, he freely admitted that he lacked hard
evidence.


4. (C) Shaw was also concerned about the potential that the
Venezuelans might become involved ) financially or otherwise
) in the general election in Jamaica. He noted that former
Prime Minister P.J. Patterson and Venezuelan President Hugo
Chavez had enjoyed a close relationship, and opined that the
PNP was ideologically closer to Chavez than the JLP would
ever be, due to its "left-wing roots."

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Entrenched and Endemic Corruption
--------------


5. (C) While acknowledging that his own budget presentation
(ref. D) drew heavily upon the use of funds from PetroCaribe,
Shaw drew a distinction with what he called the "endemic
corruption" of the PNP, bred by 17 years in power. Despite
Petroleum Corporation of Jamaica's Group Chief Ruth
Potopsingh's assertion that the GOJ administration has tabled
an amendment to the Petroleum Act that would establish an
independent board to oversee the use of PetroCaribe funds,
Shaw stated that no such amendment was before Parliament yet.
He decried the "lack of transparency," noting that funds
were being spent with no Parliamentary oversight. In

particular, he referred to road repair, eye surgery in Cuba
for indigent Jamaicans, and energy-saving lightbulbs (also
from Cuba) as three examples. Pressed by Econoff for further
details, however, Shaw admitted that this was the "word on
the street," but that once he had proof, he would share it.
Post will report any developments septel.


6. (C) Shaw also singled out two current and high-profile
cases that "demonstrated the PNP's true character." The
cement scandal (refs. A and B) is taken so seriously that
Shaw tabled a motion in Parliament on June 27 to censure
Paulwell for, in his view, "deliberately misleading the
House" by downplaying the extent of the problem. The other
brewing controversy is known as the "Whitehouse" saga, and
revolves around accusations that a "genetically and
politically connected" Jamaican businessman ) Alston Stewart
- is responsible for some USD 41 million in cost overruns at
a hotel development in Westmoreland. He further maintains
that the PNP buried the "Hylton Report" which detailed the
wrongdoing, and which only came to light when leaked to
fellow JLP MP Karl Samuda. Shaw pointed out that these two
instances had made the newspapers, but claimed that he had
anecdotal evidence of further abuses of power like these, and
hinted that the campaign season may be a vicious one if there
was more hard evidence forthcoming from his sources.

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Punished at the Polls?
--------------


7. (C) Econoff questioned why, after 17 years under PNP
administrations, with a real decline in standards of living,
as well as an inexorable increase in violent crime, the PNP
still led comfortably in all polls. Shaw acknowledged that
the JLP had done a poor job of conveying its vision to the
ordinary Jamaican. "We are rather like your Democratic Party
at the moment," he noted. "People know that we are the
Opposition, but they are less clear that we have a viable
alternative." He further expressed his frustration that the
former JLP leader, Edward Seaga, had stayed on for far too
long. (Note: Seaga stepped down after 30 years in early 2005,
pushed out by a group known in the JLP as "The Young Turks",
and of which Shaw claims to be a member. End note.)


8. (C) Shaw was upbeat about the JLP's prospects, however.
He maintained that the pollsters in Jamaica tend to be biased
towards the PNP, and that despite the divergence of
approximately twenty points between the PNP and the JLP, "the
campaign had not yet begun in earnest." (Note: Under the
Westminster model, the ruling party can call an election with
as little as 21 days notice. End note.) He contrasted the
consistent and entrenched party affiliation seen in urban
areas with a more fluid, issue-oriented voting pattern among
rural communities, and stated that the JLP would focus
heavily on the theme of change, hoping to appeal to a
populace grown weary of crime and corruption.


9. (C) On a personal level, however, Shaw was more rueful.
He stated flatly that if the electorate chose the PNP once
again, despite years of stagnation, he would retire from
politics. He also confirmed Post's suspicion that a JLP
defeat would spell the end of Bruce Golding's tenure as party
leader. He refused to speculate, however, on a possible
successor.

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Comment
--------------


10. (C) Shaw's prognostication of elections at the end of the
summer reinforces what Emboffs have heard from other
contacts. The PNP is hoping to finalize its list of
candidates for Parliamentary seats by mid-July, which would
offer a month of lead-time for the campaign. His comments
regarding Venezuela, however, should be taken with a pinch of
salt. While Shaw was certainly tailoring his message for a
USG audience, it is certainly true that the JLP would be more
wary of Venezuela's intentions. Nevertheless, the JLP sees
PetroCaribe as a useful tool for development. It is remotely
possible that Shaw was suggesting that the USG align itself
with the JLP more closely, but it is more likely that he was
sending a message that the USG should consider alternatives
that it can offer to the region to counter PetroCaribe;
alternatives with real, financial teeth. End comment.
JOHNSON