C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 KIEV 000459

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 02/02/2016
TAGS: PGOV
SUBJECT: UKRAINE: EX-ORANGE COALITION TALKING DEAL, BUT
DEAL FAR FROM DONE

REF: KIEV 3620

Classified By: Ambassador for reasons 1.4(a,b,d).


1. (C) Summary: In a February 1 meeting with Ambassador, Our
Ukraine legal department head and ex-Minister of Justice
Roman Zvarych indicated that President Yushchenko's party was
doing increasingly well in the polls, which were showing
20-percent support for Our Ukraine, as opposed to 12-13
percent for the once allied Tymoshenko Bloc (BYuT) and 24-32
percent for the opposition Regions Party of ex-PM Yanukovych.
In ongoing coalition negotiations with BYuT and the
Socialists, BYuT had proposed that positions in government be
apportioned on the basis of showing in the elections, a
prospect Zvarych thought would give Our Ukraine the Prime
Minister slot. Zvarych speculated that BYuT realized its
position was declining, and wanted to lock in its gains.
Zvarych opined that Tymoshenko might take the position of
Presidential Secretariat chief, and that a deal might be
concluded soon, enhancing the position of both Our Ukraine
and BYuT vis-a-vis Regions. End summary.


2. (C) Ambassador met February 1 with Roman Zvarych, head the
legal office of President Yushchenko's party People's Union
Our Ukraine and erstwhile Minister of Justice. (Note:
Zvarych, sacked with the Tymoshenko Cabinet in September 2005
and not brought back under PM Yekhanurov, had a checkered
seven months as Justice Minister -- e.g. scandals over his
resume and his involvement in government decisions related to
his wife's business interests, and little progress in rule of
law/legal reform. Seeing him as still loyal to Yushchenko,
however, the President's party gave him a leadership slot in
its campaign efforts.)

Improving poll numbers
--------------


3. (C) Zvarych indicated that polling results for the March
26 parliamentary election continued to improve for Our
Ukraine, currently showing Our Ukraine (OU) at 20 percent,
Tymoshenko's Bloc (BYuT) at 12-13 percent, and Yanukovych's
Regions Party garnering anywhere from 24 to 32 percent.
According to Zvarych, Our Ukraine was confident that it would
come in second place, giving it a good bargaining position in
ongoing coalition negotiations with Tymoshenko. (Note:
Zvarych seems to have mentioned the top end of a range of
polling numbers for OU and the bottom end for BYuT; the
average of various recent polls would put the two parties
closer together, though the trend in January was indeed OU
rising and BYuT declining. Most respected polls showed
Regions in the 22-25-percent range.)

Reconciliation efforts
--------------


4. (C) According to Zvarych, he and Our Ukraine campaign
chief Roman Bezsmertny met with ex-Security Services head and
Tymoshenko stalwart Oleksandr Turchynov, Deputy Head of BYuT
Mykola Tomenko, and two unspecified representatives from
Oleksandr Moroz' Socialist Party on January 31. At the
meeting, Turchynov proposed a plan for the three parties to
unite following elections, with the distribution of
government positions to be determined by placement in the
elections -- whichever party came in first would get its
choice of positions, with number two getting second choice
and number three getting third choice. With Our Ukraine
ahead in the polls, Zvarych speculated that Our Ukraine would
get to choose the Prime Minister. (Note: How this
arrangement would work out beyond a first few
position-choosing rounds, especially if yet another party had
to be brought into a coaltion in order to form a majority, is
unclear. More than likely, the final division of Cabinet
positions would be the subject of serious wrangling.)

Not a done deal
--------------


5. (C) Zvarych said Our Ukraine agreed with the proposal in
principle, and that he and Bezsmertny told their
interlocutors so in the meeting. Zvarych opined that
Tymoshenko's team proposed this arrangement because they saw
their position in the polls falling and wanted to lock in
their position. In Zvarych's estimation, Tymoshenko was
ready to take the job of chief of the Presidential
Secretariat. Zvarych said that a deal between Our Ukraine

SIPDIS
and BYuT might be concluded soon, which would allow them to
cooperate against Yanukovych. Zvarych speculated that a deal
between Our Ukraine and BYuT would energize the Orange base
and improve their performance against Yanukovych in the March
26 parliamentary elections.

Comment: A step forward?
--------------


6. (C) Zvarych's claims need to be checked out (and we will
do so with Tymoshenko and Moroz contacts in coming days), but
if true they represent a positive step in efforts to
reconcile pro-reform elements.


7. (U) Visit Kiev's classified website:
www.state.sgov.gov/p/eur/kiev.
HERBST