UKRAINE: EX-ORANGE COALITION TALKING DEAL, BUT

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 KIEV 000459 SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 02/02/2016 TAGS: PGOV SUBJECT: UKRAINE: EX-ORANGE COALITION TALKING DEAL, BUT DEAL FAR FROM DONE REF: KIEV 3620 Classified By: Ambassador for reasons 1.4(a,b,d). ¶1. (C) Summary: In a February 1 meeting with Ambassador, Our Ukraine legal department head and ex-Minister of Justice Roman Zvarych indicated that President Yushchenko's party was doing increasingly well in the polls, which were showing 20-percent support for Our Ukraine, as opposed to 12-13 percent for the once allied Tymoshenko Bloc (BYuT) and 24-32 percent for the opposition Regions Party of ex-PM Yanukovych. In ongoing coalition negotiations with BYuT and the Socialists, BYuT had proposed that positions in government be apportioned on the basis of showing in the elections, a prospect Zvarych thought would give Our Ukraine the Prime Minister slot. Zvarych speculated that BYuT realized its position was declining, and wanted to lock in its gains. Zvarych opined that Tymoshenko might take the position of Presidential Secretariat chief, and that a deal might be concluded soon, enhancing the position of both Our Ukraine and BYuT vis-a-vis Regions. End summary. ¶2. (C) Ambassador met February 1 with Roman Zvarych, head the legal office of President Yushchenko's party People's Union Our Ukraine and erstwhile Minister of Justice. (Note: Zvarych, sacked with the Tymoshenko Cabinet in September 2005 and not brought back under PM Yekhanurov, had a checkered seven months as Justice Minister -- e.g. scandals over his resume and his involvement in government decisions related to his wife's business interests, and little progress in rule of law/legal reform. Seeing him as still loyal to Yushchenko, however, the President's party gave him a leadership slot in its campaign efforts.) Improving poll numbers -------------- ¶3. (C) Zvarych indicated that polling results for the March 26 parliamentary election continued to improve for Our Ukraine, currently showing Our Ukraine (OU) at 20 percent, Tymoshenko's Bloc (BYuT) at 12-13 percent, and Yanukovych's Regions Party garnering anywhere from 24 to 32 percent. According to Zvarych, Our Ukraine was confident that it would come in second place, giving it a good bargaining position in ongoing coalition negotiations with Tymoshenko. (Note: Zvarych seems to have mentioned the top end of a range of polling numbers for OU and the bottom end for BYuT; the average of various recent polls would put the two parties closer together, though the trend in January was indeed OU rising and BYuT declining. Most respected polls showed Regions in the 22-25-percent range.) Reconciliation efforts -------------- ¶4. (C) According to Zvarych, he and Our Ukraine campaign chief Roman Bezsmertny met with ex-Security Services head and Tymoshenko stalwart Oleksandr Turchynov, Deputy Head of BYuT Mykola Tomenko, and two unspecified representatives from Oleksandr Moroz' Socialist Party on January 31. At the meeting, Turchynov proposed a plan for the three parties to unite following elections, with the distribution of government positions to be determined by placement in the elections -- whichever party came in first would get its choice of positions, with number two getting second choice and number three getting third choice. With Our Ukraine ahead in the polls, Zvarych speculated that Our Ukraine would get to choose the Prime Minister. (Note: How this arrangement would work out beyond a first few position-choosing rounds, especially if yet another party had to be brought into a coaltion in order to form a majority, is unclear. More than likely, the final division of Cabinet positions would be the subject of serious wrangling.) Not a done deal -------------- ¶5. (C) Zvarych said Our Ukraine agreed with the proposal in principle, and that he and Bezsmertny told their interlocutors so in the meeting. Zvarych opined that Tymoshenko's team proposed this arrangement because they saw their position in the polls falling and wanted to lock in their position. In Zvarych's estimation, Tymoshenko was ready to take the job of chief of the Presidential Secretariat. Zvarych said that a deal between Our Ukraine SIPDIS and BYuT might be concluded soon, which would allow them to cooperate against Yanukovych. Zvarych speculated that a deal between Our Ukraine and BYuT would energize the Orange base and improve their performance against Yanukovych in the March 26 parliamentary elections. Comment: A step forward? -------------- ¶6. (C) Zvarych's claims need to be checked out (and we will do so with Tymoshenko and Moroz contacts in coming days),but if true they represent a positive step in efforts to reconcile pro-reform elements. ¶7. (U) Visit Kiev's classified website: www.state.sgov.gov/p/eur/kiev. HERBST