UKRAINE: ORANGE MINISTERS FATE UNDECIDED

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 KIEV 003936

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/13/2016
TAGS: PGOV PREL UP
SUBJECT: UKRAINE: ORANGE MINISTERS FATE UNDECIDED

REF: A. KIEV 3866


B. KIEV 3923

Classified By: Pol Counselor Kent Logsdon for reasons 1.4(a,b,d).


1. (SBU) Summary: Rumors continue to swirl in Kiev as to the
fate of the "orange" ministers in the Ukrainian Government.
On October 11, an aide to Our Ukraine's Roman Bezsmertniy
told us that all "orange" ministers in the Cabinet had
submitted letters of resignation, later confirmed publicly by
Bezsmertniy. The announcement came the same day after
Yushchenko held a long meeting with the "orange" ministers in
the Cabinet to discuss Bezsmertniy's October 4 announcement
that OU was moving into opposition and recalling its minister
from the government (see reftel A for more details). Since
the second announcement, ministers and members of OU have
made contradictory comments about whether there is really a
plan to resign and which ministers are expected to resign.


2. (C) Comment: Earlier in the week the OU threat of
resignation seemed more likely a political move to force the
Party of Regions to be more constructive on coalition
negotiations that have now dragged on for months. More
recent statements suggest, however, that some in the Our
Ukraine leadership are really committed to being in the
opposition and leaving the government, but that this view is
not shared by President Yushchenko or all of the ministers
being asked to resign. With the People's Union Our Ukraine
(the dominant element in the bloc) party congress coming up
October 21, this could be a pivotal time for the future of
Yushchenko and his bloc. End summary and comment.

Resignation: Serious Plan or Political Ploy?
--------------

3. (SBU) On Wednesday October 11, an aide to Bezsmertniy
announced that all the "orange" ministers, including Foreign
Minister Tarasyuk and Defense Minister Hrytsenko, had written
letters of resignation. In his own public comments,
Bezsmertniy unequivocally underscored that OU was in the
opposition and the recall of its ministers would not be
reversed. He said the delay was purely technical in nature
and the resignation would take place soon. (Comment: the
Rada was not in plenary session this week, so the earliest it
could take up this issue is next Tuesday October 17.)


4. (C) Later on October 11, Health Minster Polyachenko and
Family, Youth, and Sports Minister Pavlenko confirmed to
journalists that all the OU ministers had indeed submitted
their resignations to Bezsmertniy. He stressed, however,
that because their resignations went to the head of their
party instead of to the Rada, it was a political gesture, not
a legally binding decision. Pavlenko reiterated Yushchenko's
long-standing position that if the Universal was made into a
law, then OU would reverse its decision and potentially join
a coalition. Yushchenko's comments this week also suggested
that he believes that negotiations could resume; he may hope
the threat of resignation could force Yanukovych to
cooperate. Interestingly, Justice Minister Zvarych refused
to tell journalists if had submitted his resignation or not
and Culture Minister Likhovy said outright that he did not,
suggesting the plan had not been well-coordinated.

Who is Orange Anyway?
--------------

5. (SBU) There seems to some confusion within Yushchenko's
camp as to who actually would be expected to resign if the
decision became final. The Our Ukraine bloc has five
official Cabinet slots--Health, Family, Justice, Culture, and
Emergency Situations (although this last post has been vacant
since Minister Baloha became Head of the Presidential
Secretariat). In addition, two ministers--Foreign Affairs

SIPDIS
and Defense--are appointed under the "presidential quota."
Finally, when former Socialist Yuriy Lutsenko was held over
as Minister of Internal Affairs from the previous Cabinet at
Yushchenko's request, he became a de facto member of the
presidential quota, although he is not in the constitutional
arrangement of portfolios.


6. (U) Defense Minister Hrytsenko, however, has been adamant
that he is not an Our Ukraine member of the Cabinet and
therefore not bound by any of Bezsmertniy's pronouncements.
He said that he has not written any resignation letter and
Yushchenko has not asked him to step down. Lutsenko, who is
also not a member of Our Ukraine, has been silent on the
whole issue.


7. (C) Tarasyuk's status is somewhat unique, because he is
technically on the presidential, not the Our Ukraine, quota,
but he is a member of OU. Moreover, his party Rukh, one of
the six parties that make up the OU bloc, announced it was
going into opposition even before Our Ukraine made the
decision to do so. And because Regions would like to see him

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go (see reftel B),there has been more public and private
discussion of him leaving than of other ministers.

What Does this Mean for Our Ukraine?
--------------

8. (C) Some of the questions about the status of People's
Union Our Ukraine and its ministers could be sorted out at
its upcoming party congress, which is scheduled for October

21. KYIV Governor Vira Ulyachenko, a longtime friend of
Yushchenko's, said that there will be changes made within the
party, although she discounted a formal split. Former PM
Yekhanurov told the Ambassador October 13 that the party
congress would feature a real struggle for control of the
party and heated discussion about a possible split. In
Yekhanurov's view, after the party congress meets, some
members of OU's parliamentary faction might decide to vote
with Yuliya Tymoshenko's BYuT in opposition, but he thought
that the majority, approximately 50 deputies, would continue
to vote with the Party of Regions and the ruling majority.
Presidential Secretariat Chief Baloha told the press that
Yushchenko may step down as honorary head of party, which
would further distance him from OU and its oppositionist
stance.


9. (C) Bezsmertniy continues to state publicly that the Our
Ukraine parliamentary faction would be in opposition in the
Rada no matter what Yushchenko said, underscoring the
apparent disagreement over political strategy between him and
the President. Bezsmertniy also announced the beginning of
talks on October 12 on the formation of a new "European
Ukraine" opposition. The talks took place between 10
political parties, many of which are constituent parties of
Our Ukraine and the Yuliya Tymoshenko Bloc. The possibility
of this new confederation suggests that the parties are not
committed to working only within their bloc structures, which
could affect future party discipline or how the blocs vote in
the Rada.

Response from the Other Side
--------------

10. (SBU) In public appearances around the country this week,
Yanukovych continued to state that that he believes that
negotiations are not finished. He asked the Our Ukraine
ministers to be patient and said he believes a coalition
agreement could soon be signed. He also said that he and
Yushchenko had met October 10 and agreed to "maintain
stability" in the government. At the same time, he has not
shown any willingness to compromise with OU and again
rejected the bloc's calls to turn the Universal into a
legally-binding government plan of action.


11. (C) Meanwhile, members of the Communist party have begun
to grumble about the ongoing machinations. Party leader
Symonenko asked Regions to formally and permanently end
negotiations, while another Communist MP told the press that
she thinks either Regions or the Socialists will soon leave
the Anti-Crisis Coalition entirely. This is the first time
we have seen such open and public dissension within the
governing coalition since it was formed in July.


12. (U) Visit Embassy Kiev's classified website:
www.state.sgov.gov/p/eur/kiev.
Taylor