UKRAINE: ORANGE MINISTERS FATE UNDECIDED

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 KIEV 003936 SIPDIS SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/13/2016 TAGS: PGOV PREL UP SUBJECT: UKRAINE: ORANGE MINISTERS FATE UNDECIDED REF: A. KIEV 3866 ¶B. KIEV 3923 Classified By: Pol Counselor Kent Logsdon for reasons 1.4(a,b,d). ¶1. (SBU) Summary: Rumors continue to swirl in Kiev as to the fate of the "orange" ministers in the Ukrainian Government. On October 11, an aide to Our Ukraine's Roman Bezsmertniy told us that all "orange" ministers in the Cabinet had submitted letters of resignation, later confirmed publicly by Bezsmertniy. The announcement came the same day after Yushchenko held a long meeting with the "orange" ministers in the Cabinet to discuss Bezsmertniy's October 4 announcement that OU was moving into opposition and recalling its minister from the government (see reftel A for more details). Since the second announcement, ministers and members of OU have made contradictory comments about whether there is really a plan to resign and which ministers are expected to resign. ¶2. (C) Comment: Earlier in the week the OU threat of resignation seemed more likely a political move to force the Party of Regions to be more constructive on coalition negotiations that have now dragged on for months. More recent statements suggest, however, that some in the Our Ukraine leadership are really committed to being in the opposition and leaving the government, but that this view is not shared by President Yushchenko or all of the ministers being asked to resign. With the People's Union Our Ukraine (the dominant element in the bloc) party congress coming up October 21, this could be a pivotal time for the future of Yushchenko and his bloc. End summary and comment. Resignation: Serious Plan or Political Ploy? -------------- ¶3. (SBU) On Wednesday October 11, an aide to Bezsmertniy announced that all the "orange" ministers, including Foreign Minister Tarasyuk and Defense Minister Hrytsenko, had written letters of resignation. In his own public comments, Bezsmertniy unequivocally underscored that OU was in the opposition and the recall of its ministers would not be reversed. He said the delay was purely technical in nature and the resignation would take place soon. (Comment: the Rada was not in plenary session this week, so the earliest it could take up this issue is next Tuesday October 17.) ¶4. (C) Later on October 11, Health Minster Polyachenko and Family, Youth, and Sports Minister Pavlenko confirmed to journalists that all the OU ministers had indeed submitted their resignations to Bezsmertniy. He stressed, however, that because their resignations went to the head of their party instead of to the Rada, it was a political gesture, not a legally binding decision. Pavlenko reiterated Yushchenko's long-standing position that if the Universal was made into a law, then OU would reverse its decision and potentially join a coalition. Yushchenko's comments this week also suggested that he believes that negotiations could resume; he may hope the threat of resignation could force Yanukovych to cooperate. Interestingly, Justice Minister Zvarych refused to tell journalists if had submitted his resignation or not and Culture Minister Likhovy said outright that he did not, suggesting the plan had not been well-coordinated. Who is Orange Anyway? -------------- ¶5. (SBU) There seems to some confusion within Yushchenko's camp as to who actually would be expected to resign if the decision became final. The Our Ukraine bloc has five official Cabinet slots--Health, Family, Justice, Culture, and Emergency Situations (although this last post has been vacant since Minister Baloha became Head of the Presidential Secretariat). In addition, two ministers--Foreign Affairs SIPDIS and Defense--are appointed under the "presidential quota." Finally, when former Socialist Yuriy Lutsenko was held over as Minister of Internal Affairs from the previous Cabinet at Yushchenko's request, he became a de facto member of the presidential quota, although he is not in the constitutional arrangement of portfolios. ¶6. (U) Defense Minister Hrytsenko, however, has been adamant that he is not an Our Ukraine member of the Cabinet and therefore not bound by any of Bezsmertniy's pronouncements. He said that he has not written any resignation letter and Yushchenko has not asked him to step down. Lutsenko, who is also not a member of Our Ukraine, has been silent on the whole issue. ¶7. (C) Tarasyuk's status is somewhat unique, because he is technically on the presidential, not the Our Ukraine, quota, but he is a member of OU. Moreover, his party Rukh, one of the six parties that make up the OU bloc, announced it was going into opposition even before Our Ukraine made the decision to do so. And because Regions would like to see him KIEV 00003936 002 OF 002 go (see reftel B),there has been more public and private discussion of him leaving than of other ministers. What Does this Mean for Our Ukraine? -------------- ¶8. (C) Some of the questions about the status of People's Union Our Ukraine and its ministers could be sorted out at its upcoming party congress, which is scheduled for October ¶21. Kyiv Governor Vira Ulyachenko, a longtime friend of Yushchenko's, said that there will be changes made within the party, although she discounted a formal split. Former PM Yekhanurov told the Ambassador October 13 that the party congress would feature a real struggle for control of the party and heated discussion about a possible split. In Yekhanurov's view, after the party congress meets, some members of OU's parliamentary faction might decide to vote with Yuliya Tymoshenko's BYuT in opposition, but he thought that the majority, approximately 50 deputies, would continue to vote with the Party of Regions and the ruling majority. Presidential Secretariat Chief Baloha told the press that Yushchenko may step down as honorary head of party, which would further distance him from OU and its oppositionist stance. ¶9. (C) Bezsmertniy continues to state publicly that the Our Ukraine parliamentary faction would be in opposition in the Rada no matter what Yushchenko said, underscoring the apparent disagreement over political strategy between him and the President. Bezsmertniy also announced the beginning of talks on October 12 on the formation of a new "European Ukraine" opposition. The talks took place between 10 political parties, many of which are constituent parties of Our Ukraine and the Yuliya Tymoshenko Bloc. The possibility of this new confederation suggests that the parties are not committed to working only within their bloc structures, which could affect future party discipline or how the blocs vote in the Rada. Response from the Other Side -------------- ¶10. (SBU) In public appearances around the country this week, Yanukovych continued to state that that he believes that negotiations are not finished. He asked the Our Ukraine ministers to be patient and said he believes a coalition agreement could soon be signed. He also said that he and Yushchenko had met October 10 and agreed to "maintain stability" in the government. At the same time, he has not shown any willingness to compromise with OU and again rejected the bloc's calls to turn the Universal into a legally-binding government plan of action. ¶11. (C) Meanwhile, members of the Communist party have begun to grumble about the ongoing machinations. Party leader Symonenko asked Regions to formally and permanently end negotiations, while another Communist MP told the press that she thinks either Regions or the Socialists will soon leave the Anti-Crisis Coalition entirely. This is the first time we have seen such open and public dissension within the governing coalition since it was formed in July. ¶12. (U) Visit Embassy Kiev's classified website: www.state.sgov.gov/p/eur/kiev. Taylor