Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
06KIEV2932
2006-07-28 08:49:00
CONFIDENTIAL
Embassy Kyiv
Cable title:  

UKRAINE: YUSHCHENKO-LED ROUNDTABLE POINTS TOWARD

Tags:  PREL PGOV PARM UP 
pdf how-to read a cable
VZCZCXRO3735
PP RUEHDBU
DE RUEHKV #2932/01 2090849
ZNY CCCCC ZZH
P 280849Z JUL 06
FM AMEMBASSY KIEV
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 0701
INFO RUCNCIS/CIS COLLECTIVE
RUEHZG/NATO EU COLLECTIVE
C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 KIEV 002932 

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 07/28/2016
TAGS: PREL PGOV PARM UP
SUBJECT: UKRAINE: YUSHCHENKO-LED ROUNDTABLE POINTS TOWARD
BROAD COALITION OF "NATIONAL UNITY"?

REF: KIEV 2900

Classified By: Political Counselor Kent Logsdon, reason 1.4 (b,d)

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 KIEV 002932

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 07/28/2016
TAGS: PREL PGOV PARM UP
SUBJECT: UKRAINE: YUSHCHENKO-LED ROUNDTABLE POINTS TOWARD
BROAD COALITION OF "NATIONAL UNITY"?

REF: KIEV 2900

Classified By: Political Counselor Kent Logsdon, reason 1.4 (b,d)


1. (SBU) Summary. President Yushchenko moderated an
extraordinary six-hour marathon roundtable July 27 involving
all Ukrainian political leaders and additional eminent
figures to discuss a way out of the current political
impasse. Yushchenko ended the session at 10 pm with a plea
for the parties to reconcile their remaining differences and
agree on a shared vision as part of a Pact of National Unity
that could be signed July 28, in what many observers presume
might serve as a basis for a new "national unity" coalition
likely involving Party of Regions, Yushchenko's Our Ukraine
(OU),and the Socialists. Yuliya Tymoshenko announced she
would not sign the unity document and that her bloc (BYuT)
would go into active opposition. The Communists, whom OU
does not want in the coalition, sparred with Yushchenko and
OU leader Bezsmertny during the roundtable about Ukraine's
NATO membership aspirations. As of 1230 KYIV time July 28, a
working group made up of representatives of all the parties
continued to work out the final details.


2. (C) Comment: After weeks of a seemingly aloof, passive
stance as Ukraine faced a serious political impasse,
Yushchenko is now actively engaged in the process, first in a
relatively hard-hitting prime-time TV appearance July 26 and
then by moderating a six-hour marathon round-table which gave
the impression that Yushchenko was in charge of the process.
The roundtable was very successful in showing the public that
the political leadership is serious about reaching agreement.
It was also held in the wake of an apparent internal
Yushchenko/OU decision to accept Regions' leader Yanukovych
as a PM if Regions agrees to OU's red-line demands for the
continuation of Yushchenko's foreign and domestic policies
and the immediate formation of a Constitutional Court.
According to Moroz, if the President confirms Yanukovych as
Prime Minister, then the Rada will vote Yanukovych into
office after 30 minutes, and then approve a full government

slate of ministers within three hours. And if the result of
the roundtable is a "national unity coalition" between
Regions, OU, and the Socialists with Regions' leader
Yanukovych as Premier, the primary question looking forward
will be to what extent Yushchenko remains locked in and
projecting Presidential authority with an expected
Regions-dominated government operating out of the Cabinet of
Ministers and the Rada (parliament). End Summary and Comment.

Yushchenko starts to act Presidential (finally)
-------------- --


3. (SBU) Yushchenko actively and publicly reengaged in
Ukraine's messy political impasse July 26 with a strong
prime-time TV appearance on multiple channels in which he
called for national unity and chastised the unnamed forces in
the Rada who had used dangerously inappropriate language to
inflame the situation (note: a particular rebuke to Speaker
Moroz for the latter's July 24 comments, reftel). He
followed the public message with the convening of a six-hour
roundtable at the Presidential Secretariat, televised live,
involving Speaker Moroz, Acting PM Yekhanurov, the five party
faction leaders in the Rada (Regions' Yanukovych, Tymoshenko,
OU's Bezsmertny, Socialists' Tsushko, Communists' Symonenko),
plus a handful of other "eminent persons." During a July 28
meeting with visiting DAS David Kramer and the Ambassador,
Moroz stressed that the roundtable had been Yushchenko's idea
from the start and was an attempt to chart Ukraine's future
domestic and foreign policy direction for the future.


4. (SBU) Yushchenko opened the roundtable by stressing his
standard themes: the importance of national unity; the
Ukrainian language; economic development; and the European
direction of foreign policy. Of more importance perhaps was
his projection of Presidential authority over the succeeding
six hours, of being in charge of coordinating the nation's
political forces in a very public and transparent way in an
attempt to resolve the current political impasse.

Political leaders reiterate positions, debate NATO
-------------- --------------


5. (SBU) Speaker Moroz and the faction leaders played off of
Yushchenko's themes in various ways while also pushing their
narrower partisan agendas throughout the roundtable. While
in favor of the proposed Pact of National Unity and a broad
coalition, Moroz asked to eliminate language on land sales
and gut the description on foreign policy. OU's Bezsmertny
stressed the need to swear in all Constitutional Court
judges, the importance of Ukraine's aspirations to join the
WTO, NATO, and EU, and the desirability to exclude the
Communists. Tymoshenko criticized Moroz' proposed excisions

KIEV 00002932 002 OF 002


and his early profligacy as Speaker, stressed the need for
Ukraine to have a civilized opposition, and continued to
support early elections. Yanukovych stressed the themes of
unity and the ability of Regions and OU to work together.


6. (SBU) The extended second half of the roundtable featured
lengthy exchanges on NATO and related language in the
proposed National Unity Pact and the best way to
conceptualize national security. Symonenko, and to a softer
extent Moroz, attacked the NATO-related language, engaging in
an extended debate with both Yushchenko and Bezsmertny.
Yushchenko stressed Ukraine's need to properly address the
conceptual nature of national security through the European
approach of collective security, which was the most
dependable and cost effective approach. Yushchenko
specifically mentioned Tuzla Island, the focus of a 2004
crisis with Russia; he also mentioned Ukraine's need for
massive investment to maintain its defense technology,
implying NATO might be able to help as well as reinforcing
his greater point about collective security. Bezsmertny said
that OU would never back off the point expressing Ukraine's
NATO membership aspirations.

Horbulin: The rationale behind Yushchenko's choice
-------------- --------------


7. (C) Prior to the start of the July 27 roundtable, acting
National Security and Defense Council Secretary Volodymyr
Horbulin shared with Ambassador the rationale underlying
Yushchenko's apparent choice to endorse a broad coalition of
"national unity" instead of dismissing the Rada and calling
new elections. Both options were possible, stressed
Horbulin, but Rada dismissal could have completely
unpredictable consequences, particularly if Moroz and Regions
attempted to provoke a constitutional crisis.


8. (C) The key to securing a broad coalition agreement with
Regions, stressed Horbulin, was to ensure a range of
conditions were met. Regions clearly staked maximum
importance on Yanukovych becoming PM; Yushchenko appeared
more inclined now to agree. Yushchenko's own starting points
were the continuation of his foreign and domestic policy
agendas; the three "non-negotiable" points were: exclusion of
the communists from the coalition; Presidential right to
appoint the full "power" personnel, not only the
constitutionally mandated Foreign Minister, Defense Minister,
Security Service (SBU) chief, and General Prosecutor, but
Interior Minister too; and the seating of the Constitutional
Court. Resolution of the Constitutional Court disagreement
was perhaps the key "necessary condition" for Yushchenko to
support Yanukovych's PM candidacy, suggested Horbulin, who is
non-partisan.


9. (C) The driving rationale behind formation of a coalition
of national unity would be to avoid further artificial splits
(raskol) in society, said Horbulin. The last two election
cycles had unfortunately done much to split Ukraine; it was
essential now to heal the divisions and make forward progress
achieved in the past two years irreversible. In Horbulin's
mind, a broad coalition offered the best chance at this
juncture for Ukraine to move forward, both on foreign and
domestic policy. Horbulin expressed hope that changes in
society and Ukraine's freer media, combined with the
authority of Yushchenko as President, meant that Yanukovych
would be more constrained as PM in 2006 than he had been from
2002-2004.

What next? Textual haggling, no guaranteed outcome
-------------- --------------


10. (C) Note: The exchanges between potential broad coalition
partners Regions, OU, and Socialists were not entirely
harmonious, with OU's Bezsmertny and Regions' Azarov arguing
towards the end, and Bezsmertny accusing Regions of trying to
rewrite agreed-upon sections of text. While Regions claimed
the pact could be signed in "half an hour," delays in the
resumption of the roundtable discussions July 28 indicated
that behind-door negotiations continued, with the suggested
time for a 12 noon signing time mentioned by Moroz and
Yanukovych in separate meetings with DAS Kramer and the
Ambassador already passed. Moroz emphasized to DAS Kramer
that the document to be signed was a political rather than a
legal agreement and particularly important as a public
gesture. While the outcome is by no means certain, it is
increasingly possible that Ukraine might see its third new
coalition line-up in a span of five weeks. However, as
Yanukovych put it - at this point, it is all "in God's hands."


11. (U) Visit Embassy Kiev's classified website at:
www.state.sgov.gov/p/eur/kiev.
Taylor