UKRAINE: WHAT MAY HAPPEN AT WEDNESDAY'S (JUNE 14)

C O N F I D E N T I A L KIEV 002296 SIPDIS SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 06/13/2016 TAGS: PGOV PINR SOCI UP SUBJECT: UKRAINE: WHAT MAY HAPPEN AT WEDNESDAY'S (JUNE 14) RADA SESSION REF: KIEV 2281 Classified By: Ambassador for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d). Summary -------------- ¶1. (C) With no Orange coalition formed as of 1800 local time, two aides to senior Orange politicians have told us that the Party of Regions may essentially take charge of the coalition formation process at the June 14 Rada session. According to our interlocutors, Communist MP Martynyuk, who is slated to chair tomorrow's session, will likely call for a vote on amending the Rada's rules for electing a new Speaker. Our contacts, echoing what Yuliya Tymoshenko told the DCM on June 12 (reftel),claimed that the Party of Regions had enough defectors from the Orange camp to win the vote. Martynyuk, in this scenario, would then call for a sec ret, paper ballot vote for a new Rada speaker. Regions would then try to form a so-called "alternative inter-factional majority" with the Orange defectors and the Communists, though legal experts have asserted that such a coalition would be unconstitutional. End summary. With No Orange Coalition (Yet)... -------------- ¶2. (SBU) As of 1800 local time, and with no announcement of an Orange coalition, a senior aide to Our Ukraine's point man in the coalition talks, Roman Bezsmertny, and a longtime aide to Socialist Party (SP) leader Oleksandr Moroz have separately sketched for us a picture of what may occur when the Rada reconvenes on June 14. ...Here's What May Happen At The Rada -------------- ¶3. (C) Echoing what Bloc Tymoshenko leader Yuliya Tymoshenko told the DCM on the evening of June 12 (reftel),our contacts predicted that Communist MP Adam Martynyuk, one of the five members of the Rada's provisional presidium, would chair the session. Martynyuk would likely call for an immediate vote to amend Article 14 of the Rada's Rule of Procedures to permit the election of a new Speaker in the absence of a governing coalition. Again echoing Tymoshenko, our interlocutors asserted that the Party of Regions had the votes to amend Article 14. (Note: Tymoshenko's MP head count was 186 Regions, 21 Communists, 20 Our Ukraine from the Poroshenko and Kinakh factions, and 3 defectors from the SP.) ¶4. (SBU) Our contacts asserted that if Article 14 was amended, Martynyuk would immediately call, in accordance with the Rada's rules, for a sec ret vote (by paper ballot) to elect a new Speaker. Here our interlocutors diverged: Bezsmertny's aide predicted Regions MP Raisa Bohatyrova would get the Speaker's post, while Moroz' aide said her boss had been "promised" the job by Regions in return for joining a Regions/Communists/Orange Defectors alliance. To further muddle things, Bohatyrova repeatedly told the press on June 13 that Regions' leader Viktor Yanukovych may get the Speakership. ¶5. (SBU) Our contacts would not speculate on anything beyond the election of a new Speaker at the June 14 session. However, the media are reporting that Regions, the Communists and the OU/SP defectors will attempt to form an "alternative inter-factional majority," though most legal experts contend that such a majority would be unconstitutional. Comment: Where Things Stand -------------- ¶6. (C) Yushchenko, Bezsmertny and Prime Minister Yekhanurov apparently did meet sometime during the morning of June 13 (reftel) and decided to give the Orange coalition talks with BYuT and the SP more time. Foreign Minister Tarasyuk told Ambassador on June 13 that the troika was meeting during the afternoon, but that the Socialists remained adamant in their insistence on the Speakership for Moroz (septel). As of 1800 local time, though, those talks have reportedly produced no results, and Our Ukraine is publicly calling for all parties that won seats in the March parliamentary elections to gather at the negotiating table. While we cannot predict what will happen tomorrow morning at the Rada, the scenario outlined by our interlocutors is one possible variant in what promises to be another eventful, even if not productive, day at the Rada. Taylor