UKRAINE: TYMOSHENKO SAYS COALITION TALKS ARE

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 KIEV 002281

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 06/12/2016
TAGS: PHUM PGOV PINR SOCI PREL RS UP
SUBJECT: UKRAINE: TYMOSHENKO SAYS COALITION TALKS ARE
DEADLOCKED; BEZSMERTNY SAYS CRUCIAL DECISION TO COME JUNE 13

REF: KIEV 2280

Classified By: Deputy Chief of Mission Sheila Gwaltney for reasons 1.4
(b) and (d).

Summary
--------------


1. (C) Yuliya Tymoshenko told DCM on June 12 that talks on
forming an Orange coalition were deadlocked over Socialist
Party leader Oleksander Moroz' insistence on being made Rada
Speaker. Tymoshenko had tried to reason with Moroz, but he
was dug in, knowing that this would be his "political
swansong." The key player now was President Yushchenko, who
could easily give in to Moroz, as the Speaker would be a
figurehead bound by the coalition agreement, Tymoshenko
argued. Yushchenko, however, was disengaged and refusing to
meet with Tymoshenko and Moroz; during a meeting on June 9,
Tymoshenko asserted that Yushchenko had been agitated, at
times yelling at her. The president was being fed
misinformation by Our Ukraine (OU) insider Petro Poroshenko,
Tymoshenko claimed. Addressing reports that OU was preparing
to negotiate with the Party of Regions, Tymoshenko emphasized
that Yushchenko was foolish to believe he could control
Regions in a coalition. Regions would quickly buy off
Yushchenko's advisers and dominate the coalition, making its
influence felt in foreign policy and other areas. During the
June 14 scheduled Rada session, Tymoshenko related that it
was likely that Regions would call for secret vote to elect a
new Speaker and two deputies; with defectors from OU and the
Socialists, Regions had the votes to make it happen.
Tymoshenko spoke at length about the negative role that
Russia has played in the coalition formation process, and
alleged that the Russian FSB was behind recent anti-U.S. and
anti-NATO protests in Crimea; she appealed for senior USG
intervention with Yushchenko to revive the Orange talks.
Separately, OU's point man in the negotiations, Roman
Bezsmertny, told DCM that he, Prime Minister Yekhanurov and
Yushchenko would meet on the morning of June 13 to make a
coalition decision. He predicted that Yushchenko would "give
in" to Moroz so the Orange coalition can form. Bezsmertny
added that Yushchenko told Yekhanurov earlier on June 12 that
they should support the Orange coalition. End summary.

Flatline For Orange Coalition
--------------


2. (C) During a June 12 evening meeting with DCM, Bloc
Tymoshenko (BYuT) leader Yuliya Tymoshenko confirmed that
talks on forming a renewed Orange coalition had deadlocked
over Socialist Party (SP) chief Oleksander Moroz's insistence
on being named Rada Speaker. Tymoshenko had spoken with
Moroz for nearly two hours in an effort to get him to back
down; she claimed that Moroz' position was "like steel." The
Socialist leader knew that this was his "political swansong"
and wanted the Speakership to be his last hurrah. Tymoshenko
stressed that, for President Yushchenko, giving Moroz the
Speakership would be "no big deal." In a new Orange
coalition, the Speaker would largely be a figurehead whose
actions would be guided by the extraordinarily detailed
coalition agreement. Moreover, all of the key ministries and
governships would remain in Yushchenko's hands, Tymoshenko
stressed. Why let such a minor issue bring a premature end
to the Orange period of modern Ukrainian history, she asked
rhetorically? She also would not exclude the possibility
that Moroz' resolve was being fortified with money from the
Party of Regions.

Yushchenko "Not Himself"
--------------


3. (C) The key player now, Tymoshenko said, was Yushchenko.
The president had spoken about his desire to be a peacemaker,
bridging differences within the Orange camp, and 70% of the
Ukrainian public wanted to see an Orange coalition,
Tymoshenko claimed. This was a "second chance" for the
Orange Team. Unfortunately, Tymoshenko asserted, Yushchenko
was doing nothing. She had called the president three times
on June 12 asking him to meet with her and Moroz, separately
if need be; she had received no response. Tymoshenko said
she had met with Yushchenko on June 9, and he had clearly
"not been himself"; he had been agitated, at times yelling.
Tymoshenko claimed that the president was in an information
bubble, with "people around him" telling him that OU deputies
strongly opposed giving Moroz the Speakership. In fact, she
said, it was only a small group of OU deputies, led by Petro
Poroshenko, who "radically" opposed Moroz. Tymoshenko noted
that the president was currently behaving like he did just
before he sacked her last September. (Note: On the way out
of the meeting, Tymoshenko's foreign policy guru, BYuT MP
Hryhoriy Nemirya, added that Yushchenko had used his Saturday

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national radio address to make Tymoshenko the scapegoat for
deadlocked talks.)

Regions Will Own Yushchenko
--------------


4. (C) Addressing reports that Our Ukraine (OU) was now
preparing to work out a coalition deal with the rival Party
of Regions, Tymoshenko said that Yushchenko was wrong to
think that he could control Regions. She predicted that all
of Yushchenko's key advisers would be paid off by Regions
"within a week." The president would be isolated in such a
coalition, Tymoshenko said, dependent on OU oligarchs cut
from the same cloth as Regions godfather Rinat Akhmetov and
"those behind RosUkrEnergo." The Prosecutor General, she
asserted, would listen not to the president but to "Petro
Poroshenko." Tymoshenko predicted that within six months,
Regions would completely dominate the coalition with OU,
making its influence felt in foreign policy, relations with
Russia, and by chilling press freedoms gained during the
Orange Revolution. She said she "did not want to see that
happen" to Ukraine.

Rada On Wednesday
--------------


5. (C) Turning to the Rada's scheduled session on June 14,
Tymoshenko asserted that she expected Communist MP Adam
Martenyuk, a member of the Provisional Presidium, to take the
Speaker's chair and call for a secret vote to elect a new
Speaker and two deputies. Tymoshenko said that Regions
appeared to have the election pre-wired; 226 votes were
needed, and Regions likely had 230 (186 Regions, 21
Communists, 20 from the Poroshenko and Kinakh factions of OU,
and 3 defectors from the SP.) There was still time to
prevent such a scenario from unfolding at the Rada, but the
Orange team needed to get a deal done immediately. (Note: It
is not clear if a vote on the Speaker is possible from a
procedural standpoint in the absence of the formation of a
coalition majority. But in Ukraine's fluid political
landscape, we rule out nothing.)

The Russia Card
--------------


6. (C) Grimly joking that "if the Ukrainian president won't
form a coalition, the Russian president will," Tymoshenko
spoke passionately about the active and negative role that
Russia was playing in the coalition formation process, and in
Ukraine more generally. It was the Russian FSB, working
through rabidly pro-Moscow Regions MP Yevhen Kushnaryov, that
had instigated the anti-U.S., anti-NATO protests in Crimea
against "Sea Breeze," she said. Another Regions MP allegedly
on the Kremlin's payroll, Donetsk clan heavyweight Borys
Kolesnikov, had brazenly asserted in a Fifth Channel
interview that Regions would "roll back the Orange
Revolution." And, Tymoshenko added, First Boston Bank
officials had told her June 12 that Naftohaz Ukraine was on
the verge of financial collapse; all of the company's income,
she claimed, "has been going directly to Moscow." In
closing, Tymoshenko asked for senior USG intervention with
Yushchenko to revive the Orange coalition talks. Stressing
again that she did not want to see Regions take power and
"alter Ukraine's foreign policy vector," Tymoshenko said that
she sees U.S. intervention as "the only way to prevent the
absorption of Ukraine by 'another country.'"

Late Word From Bezsmertny
--------------


7. (C) In a brief telephone conversation the evening of June
12, Our Ukraine,s (OU) lead negotiator Roman Bezsmertny told
DCM that President Yushchenko, PM Yekhanurov, and he would
meet Tuesday, June 13 at 1000 hours (local time) to decide
whether to concede the Speakership to Moroz and thereby form
an Orange Coalition. Bezsmertny opined that Yushchenko would
give Moroz the Speakership. (Note: Bezsmertniy also
predicted that Yushchenko would give in to Moroz on the
Speaker,s job early last week, before the Orange Coalition
talks stalled June 10. See reftel.) Bezsmertny added that
earlier on June 12, Yushchenko had told Yekhanurov that they
needed to support the Orange Coalition.


8. (C) Bezsmertny also said that, after the breakdown in the
talks with the Socialists and Tymoshenko, OU had begun to
explore options with the Party of Regions regarding coalition
building and had made "unofficial working contact" with
Regions. OU sent Regions a list of seven questions whose
answers, if positive, could serve as the basis for
preliminary talks with Regions. The seven subject areas were
Feodosiya (a reference to Regions' public criticism of the

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GOU for its handling of cooperative military training with
the U.S. in the run-up to the Sea Breeze 2006 exercise),
NATO, the EU, the World Trade Organization, the single
economic space, Ukrainian language and federalization.
Bezsmertny said that the answers Regions provided were more
or less alright, except for the answer on the language
question. He offered to send the Embassy a set of the
Regions responses the following day.
Taylor