UKRAINE: QUICK GOU FIX TO "SEA BREEZE" LIMBO

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 KIEV 002207 SIPDIS SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 06/07/2016 TAGS: PGOV MARR PREL NATO PINR UP SUBJECT: UKRAINE: QUICK GOU FIX TO "SEA BREEZE" LIMBO UNLIKELY REF: KIEV 2190 Classified By: Charge d'Affaires, a.i., for reasons 1.4(b,d) ¶1. (C) Summary: The Ukrainian parliament (Rada) resumed June 7 and, without addressing the issue of foreign military participation in joint exercises in Ukraine, ended its session almost immediately, adjourning until June 14. A possible special session of the Rada could come before June 14, but there is no guarantee the Government would be able to shepherd a piece of legislation to a successful vote at either a special session or on June 14. Barring an unexpected turnaround in GOU ability to change the situation on the ground in Crimea to allow the current planned construction activities to go forward, Post suggests planning begin to withdraw the deployed construction personnel and arrange appropriate disposition of the materials. Rada and GOU action in the coming days and few weeks will provide additional data upon which to make a decision on joint exercise Sea Breeze, for which the currently deployed assets were preparatory. Meanwhile, Party of Regions leader Yanukovych sent a disingenuous letter to the NATO Secretary General expressing regret that the GOU invitation of U.S. military personnel without Rada approval had damaged Ukraine's relations with NATO; judging by Regions' actions, the party's intent, in addition to sullying the Yushchenko government's reputation, is to do just that. Perhaps unrelated to current tensions in Crimea, but emblematic of the type of indicident that Russian-backed anti-Americanism can spark, two apparently inebriated individuals roughed up an American DoD contract hire in the Crimean city of Sevastopol. Post plans to send out a Department-approved warden message. End summary. An Open and Shut Session -------------- ¶2. (SBU) Contrary to earlier GOU statements, Parliament (Rada) failed to take up a measure to authorize the participation of foreign militaries in exercises on Ukrainian soil when it resumed June 7. The Rada session opened, then Our Ukraine, Tymoshenko Bloc and Socialists quickly voted (with a bare majority of 227 votes) to adjourn until June 14 (septel). While MPs from the Party of Regions and Communist Party met to consider their options, Communist Party leader Petro Symonenko took the rostrum to criticize the U.S. for Sea Breeze and accused U.S. Embassy military attaches of pressuring local officials in Crimea. (Note: Symonenko's charges are groundless. Embassy Military Attaches have had no contact with local civilian authorities since the problems began with the arrival of the Marines on June 1.) Symonenko called for the resignations of Foreign Minister Tarasyuk and Defense Minister Hrytsenko and an ad hoc Rada investigation into the exercise. ¶3. (C) Regions MP Kozhara told PolCouns later that the party's political council was considering having its MPs call a special session of the Rada to convene as soon as today. Presidential chief of staff Oleh Rybachuk told Charge that the GOU, after meeting to discuss the issue, had decided to try to use any special session to get passage of legislation approving joint military exercises this year. He told Charge that once a coalition deal giving Socialist leader Moroz the Rada Speakership was done, the Socialists would back the legislation. (Note: Socialist support would provide the votes necessary to pass the legislation. Rybachuk told the same thing to the British Ambassador today, according to the British DATT. The British have an exercise "Tight Knot" that is supposed to start in another week that is dependent on the legislation.) Further Crimean Developments -------------- ¶4. (SBU) The situation in Feodosiya was mostly static, with demonstrators following a predictable pattern of collecting at the sanatorium about 7:00 a.m. then dispersing at about 8:30 p.m. The GOU continued to promise action in support of our personnel and have beefed up security with border guards and naval infantry, but showed a continuing inability to come through on other promises despite vigorous efforts by the Embassy. Our cargo in customs remains stuck. Our personnel remain confined to a sanatorium. Our joint and agreed mission remains unfulfilled. Additionally, Regions MPs arrived at the port today and have promised remain in the area and insist upon examining the cargo. Regions MP Kozhara told us June 7 that the deputies had no legal basis to examine the cargo and that he would look into the situation. KIEV 00002207 002 OF 002 ¶5. (SBU) In what could be an unrelated development, a U.S. military contractor in the Crimean city of Sevastopol was roughed early on June 6 up by two individuals after being asked if he was an American. Since the contractor speaks neither Russian nor Ukrainian, he was unable to understand what his assailants were yelling at him. Sevastopol is three or four hours by car away from Feodosiya. Time to Pull the Plug? -------------- ¶6. (C) Comment: Whether the next Rada session begins June 14 or sooner, Rada approval of a bill on foreign military participation in Ukrainian exercises is at this point difficult to predict with any certainty. Socialist Party and Regions deputies have been muttering that, before the Rada as a whole takes up the measure, the bill would need to follow Rada procedures and be considered in the appropriate committees, which still need to be formed. Even if Socialist Party leader Oleksandr Moroz becomes Rada Speaker, he may well be averse to having the Government insist on summary treatment of the issue. With GOU statements that the Ukrainian government will not proceed on Sea Breeze until the Rada has authorized foreign military participation, the Sea Breeze-related construction project that our personnel on the ground are supposed to do might not be possible within the time constraints for U.S. military reservists' participation. The current group of construction personnel are scheduled to depart on June 16, the day a charter aircraft is scheduled to fly in their replacements to Simferopol, Crimea's capital. Even with Rada-approved legislation in place, we would need to be fully certain that GOU preparations for the arrival of additional personnel were in place before we would recommend deploying them. The go/no-go decision day for Sea Breeze, as we understand it, is July 1. ¶7. (U) Visit Embassy Kiev's classified website: www.state.sgov.gov/p/eur/kiev. Gwaltney