UKRAINE: YANUKOVYCH TO CODEL FRIST: ORANGE

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 KIEV 001530 SIPDIS CODEL SIPDIS DEPT PLEASE PASS TO USTR FOR KLEIN/MOLNAR; USDOC FOR 4231/ITA/OEENIS/NISD/CLUCYCK E.O. 12958: DECL: 04/14/2016 TAGS: PGOV PREL ETRD NATO OREP PINR US UP SUBJECT: UKRAINE: YANUKOVYCH TO CODEL FRIST: ORANGE COALITION "DOOMED TO FAIL" REF: KIEV 643 Classified By: Ambassador for reasons 1.4 (b,d). ¶1. (C) Summary: Former Prime Minister Viktor Yanukovych told CODEL Frist and Ambassador April 13 that the pro-presidential Our Ukraine (OU) bloc needed to form a coalition with his Party of Regions in order to overcome the east-west split within the country. A union of the previous ruling coalition (of OU, the Yuliya Tymoshenko Bloc, and the Socialist Party) would be doomed to fail, as it had once before. In the new parliament, Party of Regions would put a priority on legislation to empower local government. Yanukovych said progress toward NATO membership should be a natural process and would be assisted if NATO could demonstrate to the Ukrainian public the concrete benefits of a closer relationship. Yanukovych claimed to favor Ukraine's WTO accession but said his party would seek to delay or slow implementation of some WTO-related measures. Senator Frist praised Ukraine's recent parliamentary (Rada) elections. End summary. A Milestone Election -------------- ¶2. (SBU) Yanukovych welcomed the opportunity to share views with CODEL Frist (Senate Majority Leader Bill Frist, R-TN; Senator Judd Gregg, R-NH; and Senator Richard Burr, R-NC) and Ambassador. Senator Frist congratulated Yanukovych for Party of Regions' (first-place, plurality-winning) electoral results, saying that, as a politician, he found nothing more exciting than a free and fair election. He congratulated Yanukovych and other Ukrainian politicians for a process that functioned well with open debate and a multi-party system. He and his delegation were visiting Ukraine at an exciting time, but, whatever the outcome (of ongoing Rada majority coalition formation talks),he wanted to maintain an open dialogue with Ukrainian counterparts. Coalition Building -------------- ¶3. (SBU) Yanukovych started by noting the elections were basically fair, for which he credited the Ukrainian people, including its "Orange part." He asserted that real negotiations on coalition-building within the new Parliament (Rada) would take place after official publication of the final poll results. Once this happened, Party of Regions would be open to any possible coalition partner, but would first approach (President Yushchenko's) Our Ukraine Bloc. (Note: Ukrainian law calls for publication of the final, official results within five days of announcement of the results, barring any legal challenges. While the Central Election Commission announced election results April 10, the Supreme Administrative Court ordered suspension of their publication based on an appeal by the People's Opposition Bloc led by radical Socialist Natalya Vitrenko over procedural irregularities. The court ruled that the CEC could not take action to finalize the Rada election results until the People's Opposition Bloc's case was settled.) ¶4. (SBU) Yanukovych said he was pleased with the election results, since Regions had won with more than 50% of the vote in 10 regions. (Note: Regions in fact came in first in 10 regions -- 8 southern and eastern oblasts, the Crimean Autonomous Republic, and Sevastopol, which, like Kiev, has a special administrative status -- but only took a majority of the vote in 6.) These regions were the heavily populated and industrialized areas in the south and east. Yanukovych said President Yushchenko should seize the opportunity to create a coalition that would bridge the divide in Ukrainian society (i.e., between the areas supporting Party of Regions and the 17 regions where either Our Ukraine or the Yuliya Tymoshenko Bloc, BYuT, emerged victorious). ¶5. (SBU) Furthermore, Yanukovych argued, as the recipient of the largest number of votes, Regions should be included in any ruling coalition. If Yushchenko failed to do so, he (Yanukovych) and the Party of Regions would hold Yushchenko personally responsible for the consequences. A reformation of the earlier "Orange coalition" (of OU, BYuT, and the Socialist Party) was doomed to fail; it had crumbled once and it would do so again. If Regions were in the opposition, however, the party would endeavor to work on the basis of its platform with the government for the common good and Ukraine's national interests. KIEV 00001530 002 OF 003 Further Government Reform -------------- ¶6. (C) Yanukovych said that, as prime minister, he had worked in close cooperation with the Rada to pass legislation that had resulted in a strong economy -- 9.6% GDP growth in 2003 and 12.3% in 2004. The government's primary task now was to restore the public's faith so that their renewed trust would resuscitate the economy. Constitutional reform was the first step toward further reform of the government structure. Yanukovych said his primary task in the Rada would be to empower local governments by passing legislation to reform local government, including by allowing people to elect heads of regional governments directly, rather than the central government appointing them. Local governments, he argued, should have the power and authority to fulfill their responsibilities. Euro-Atlantic Integration and NATO -------------- ¶7. (C) Senator Frist noted the importance of Ukraine's continued progress toward integration into Euro-Atlantic institutions, including NATO. Yanukovych responded carefully that the Party of Regions platform supported developing a relationship with NATO. He had welcomed then-NATO Secretary General Robertson to Donetsk when he was governor there. Ukraine's movement toward Euro-Atlantic integration, however, should be natural, and Yanukovych drew a comparison to love, "which must be mutual." For the moment, 80% of Ukrainians opposed NATO membership. This could be overcome, Yanukovych suggested, if NATO could demonstrate concrete benefits from membership. NATO actions like a decision to purchase Ukrainian-manufactured AN-70 aircraft would be welcomed and convincingly display the benefits of NATO membership, so that Ukrainians would not feel "forced and humiliated" if Ukraine eventually became a member. Ukrainians also did not understand why the USG provided a plant to Russia to eliminate solid rocket fuel, but not one in Pavlohrad in Ukraine for the same purpose. In addition, Ukrainians did not understand why Ukrainian contributions toward Iraq had not been reciprocated (with commercial deals). ¶8. (U) Note: Russia and Ukraine are developing the short takeoff and landing AN-70 military transport aircraft under intergovernmental agreements signed in 1993 and 1999. Under the agreements, Russian financed 72% and Ukraine 28% of the AN-70's research and development. The aircraft is being developed by the Kiev-based Antonov ANTK Company. It will be powered by D-27 engines to be mass-produced at the Zaporizhzhya-based Motor Sich Enterprise. The Russian government recently threatened to pull out from the AN-70 project. WTO, EU, and Russia -------------- ¶9. (C) Yanukovych claimed to favor Ukraine's membership in the WTO, noting that most bilateral protocols had been signed when he was prime minister. (Note: the GOU signed 21 bilateral market access agreements during Yanukovych's tenure as PM, from November 22, 2002 to the end of December 2004. This is a substantial share but not quite the majority of the approximately 46 WTO members that have required such agreements of Ukraine; 43 of these have been signed to date.) However, due to a need to support national industries and the vulnerability of some economic sectors, his party would advocate postponement or slower implementation of some WTO-related measures. He would work to deepen Ukraine's relationship with the EU, but not in terms of words but with real achievements. Yanukovych acknowledged that, under Yushchenko, Ukraine's relationship with the U.S. had reached a new qualitative level, but he observed that Ukraine needed to develop a new and long-term strategy toward Russia that would not anger the citizenry of either country. He also noted that many economic issues needed to be solved in the trilateral relationship of Ukraine, Russia, and the EU and suggested that the three parties should consider them together. Congressional Support -------------- ¶10. (C) At the end of the meeting, Senator Frist again praised the transparency and fairness of the recently KIEV 00001530 003 OF 003 concluded parliamentary elections. He said he looked forward to future visits both by Ukrainian officials to Washington and other Congressional delegations to Ukraine. ¶11. (C) Comment: Yanukovych had a nuanced message for the Senators designed to suggest moderation. This was evident in his praise, albeit offhanded, for the Orange contribution to fair elections and improved relations with the U.S. It was also evident in his suggestion of ways that NATO might encourage Ukrainian cooperation. Perhaps the most troubling view he expressed involved the possibility that his party might need to oppose or amend certain WTO-related bills to ensure that Ukrainian industry did not suffer. ¶12. (U) CODEL Frist did not have an opportunity to clear this cable. ¶13. (U) Visit Embassy Kiev's classified website: www.state.sgov.gov/p/eur/kiev. Herbst