C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 KIEV 001159

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 03/24/2016
TAGS: PGOV PHUM KDEM UP
SUBJECT: UKRAINE: TYMOSHENKO RALLIES FAITHFUL ON THE MAIDAN


Classified By: Ambassador for reasons 1.4(a,b,d).


1. (SBU) Summary: During a rally March 23 on Kiev's
Independence Square (Maidan Nezalezhnosti), the geographical
and spiritual center of the late 2004 Orange Revolution,
former PM Yuliya Tymoshenko strived to recreate the spirit of
the November-December 2004 protests that broke the Kuchma
regime's ten-year grip on power. In a rousing 50-minute
speech, Tymoshenko criticized her opponents but steered clear
of any personal attack against President Yushchenko. A crowd
of well over 10,000 withstood icy winds and below-freezing
temperatures to show support for their lady in white. With
latest polls showing Tymoshenko surging to a statistical tie
with Yushchenko for second place -- and with 10% of voters
still undecided -- it is entirely feasible that Tymoshenko's
eponymous bloc could best Our Ukraine on election day. End
summary.


2. (U) Backed by giant video screens and flanked by the top
candidates of her party, Yuliya Tymoshenko in a strong and
unwavering voice told a packed Maidan of well over 10,000
(estimates ranged from 15-50,000) why people should vote for
her and her bloc. Drawing on the themes of the Orange
Revolution that catapulted her and Our Ukraine to power,
Tymoshenko urged the voters not to give up hope or succumb to
cynicism on election day. In clear phrases, Tymoshenko
explained that voters should back her bloc to continue and
finish the revolution that was started a year-and-a-half ago
in the very same central square. (See
http://www.tymoshenko.com.ua/ukr/news/electio ns-news/2990/
for speech and visuals.)


3. (U) Tymoshenko leveled blistering criticism against Party
of the Regions (PoR) leader Viktor Yanukovych --
characterizing him as an illiterate buffoon, liar and bandit
-- and against the leaders of parties struggling to overcome
the 3% barrier that would join forces with PoR. Tymoshenko
singled out former Rada speaker Ivan Plyushch (who is running
with ex-Orange ally Yuriy Kostenko on a joint bloc ticket),
citing Plyushch as saying that he could not ignore PoR's 30%

poll rating. "Who would not want to join forces with a bloc
with that kind of rating?", Tymoshenko quoted him as saying.
She blasted this kind of logic, saying that forming
coalitions on the basis of poll ratings was dead wrong.
Coalitions should be formed on the basis of policies and
ideals.


4. (U) With regard to her own plans for a coalition,
Tymoshenko side-stepped any mention of what she would do
after election day. She told the crowd: "I know that many
of you have asked me what my intentions are. Am I fighting
against the President? Will I join forces with Our Ukraine?
Is my campaign only another type of political strategy to
take away votes from Our Ukraine? In the end, will I form a
coalition with OU?" But she gave no clear answers. She only
reiterated her clear distaste for Yanukovych and his "band of
criminals," and said she would never enter into a coalition
with PoR.


5. (U) Tymoshenko steered clear of directly criticizing
President Yushchenko, saying that he was above the
parliamentary election and not running for office. Instead,
it was the corrupt Our Ukraine bloc with the likes of
Poroshenko, Bezsmertny, Martynenko and others who had not
served the President well and were responsible for the
break-up of the Orange coalition. "I did every thing I could
to support our President," Tymoshenko said. "You know that I
have given my all to help Ukraine become truly democratic,
free and civilized." Other key points included: "A vote for
PoR would take us back to the stone age. We cannot go back
and we should not." "We stand on the precipice of a unique
chance in history -- the kind of chance that only comes once
in a lifetime. If we lose on election day, we will lose more
than the 15 years of progress we have attained. We simply
cannot allow that kind of 'revanche' -- the return to the
criminalization prevalent during Kuchma's regime." "The PoR
is nothing more than a return to that era, and we cannot let
that happen." "Don,t believe the sociologists, polls and
what the pundits say; Make the right choice for my bloc, for
democracy -- a democracy that will be crystal clear." "And
don,t believe anything the PoR is telling you. Their words
are empty promises."


6. (U) Tymoshenko's impassioned oratory continued for nearly
50 minutes as icy winds whipped through the packed square. A
close-up of her face was shown across the four huge video
screens that flanked the stage throughout. People stood
fairly quietly, with sporadic chants of "Yu-li-ya, Yu-li-ya."
The rally ended with the playing of the Ukrainian national
anthem -- a blue-and-yellow flag waving on the video screens
-- and a 10-minute fireworks display.

KIEV 00001159 002 OF 002




7. (C) Comment: Whether Tymoshenko is telling the truth or
not -- and many pundits, journalists and observers call her a
liar -- she remains a charismatic speaker. Employing
impassioned and eloquent rhetoric, she did not miss a beat,
never stumbled, spoke extemporaneously, and appeared to hit
all the right points (at least with her adoring crowd). The
tale of her support nationwide will be told election day by
voters.


8. (U) Visit Embassy Kiev's classified website:
www.state.sgov.gov/p/eur/kiev.
Herbst