C O N F I D E N T I A L KIEV 001158

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 03/24/2016
TAGS: PGOV PINR PHUM
SUBJECT: UKRAINE: TARASYUK AND TYMOSHENKO REP REPORT NO
COALITION AGREEMENT REACHED - YET


Classified By: Ambassador. Reasons 1.4 (b and d)


1. (C) Tymoshenko adviser Hryhoriy Nemyrya denied to
Ambassador and DCM March 24 that any agreement had been
reached among Our Ukraine, Tymoshenko,s eponymous bloc BYuT,
and Socialists, although he acknowledged that talks were
taking place between Tymoshenko,s Deputy Oleksandr Turchynov
and Our Ukraine,s Roman Bezmertny and Roman Zvarych. In
his characteristically precise manner, Nemyrya said that
while talks were going on, &the depth of the communication
is not bringing the sides closer to agreement.8 Both sides
saw the talks as an &exhibit of good will,8 but both sides
were looking to see &who has the stronger hand8 after the
election. Nemyrya said that no side wanted to sign until the
voting was over. Then they would know their relative
electoral strength and would negotiate &from a position of
strength.8 To underscore BYuT,s pre-election caution on
the talks, he pointed to remarks by Our Ukraine leader Mykola
Martynenko, who was quoted in the March 24 &Financial
Times8 implying that Our Ukraine might look to an alliance
with opposition leader Viktor Yanukovych,s Party of Regions
&if the talks with Yulia are blocked.8


2. (C) Nemyrya said that President Yushchenko,s comments
during an interview on the national
&1 18 channel March 23 were somewhat heartening. When
asked about possible partners in a post-election Rada
coalition, Yushchenko initially said he did not want to
appear to be engaging in partisan politics. He then said,
according to Nemyrya, that a coalition could be built around
democratic forces, including PORA-PRP, Kostenko-Plyushch
bloc. Nemyrya said that Yushchenko added, perhaps as an
afterthought, &and BYuT.8 Nemyrya shared a March 19 IIS
poll that put Regions at 36% with a slight upward trend, Our
Ukraine roughly at 18% (with a slight downward trend), and
BYuT at 18% with a slight upward trend. He said that BYuT
had not commissioned the IIS poll.


3. (C) Ambassador spoke separately with Foreign Minister
(and leader of Our Ukraine bloc member Rukh Party) Tarasyuk,
who said he thought the agreement would be signed Thursday
night, March 23. But then Tymoshenko said she wanted to wait
to sign until Sunday night, March 26, at or after 2200 hours,
that is, after the polls close.
Herbst