UKRAINE: PRE-ELECTION SNAPSHOT: LVIV AT SECOND

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 KIEV 001083

SIPDIS

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TAGS: PGOV PREL PHUM
SUBJECT: UKRAINE: PRE-ELECTION SNAPSHOT: LVIV AT SECOND
GLANCE


(U) Sensitive but unclassified, please handle accordingly.
Not for internet distribution.


1. (SBU) Summary: A return visit to the western city of Lviv
March 17-18 indicated that campaigning in city and
surrounding areas has moved into a higher gear the final week
before the March 26 parliamentary and local elections, as
politicians scramble to maintain their base and win over the
dwindling undecided voters. Lviv's streets and airwaves were
even more crowded with banners, flyers, streamers, pop-up
tents, posters and political ads than in late February
(reftel). Yulia Tymoshenko barnstormed through Lviv and
three towns south of Lviv March 17 amid reports her eponymous
bloc (BYuT) is gaining on President Yushchenko's Our Ukraine;
she reportedly plans a return visit March 24. Rada speaker
Volodymyr Lytvyn visited Lviv March 15 but seems in danger of
not making it over the 3-percent threshold despite a
well-funded campaign. Meanwhile, campaigning for local
races, including for mayor of Lviv, remained mired in
mudslinging and acrimony. End summary.

The Rada Race: Orange and White, but sterile?
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2. (SBU) Several observers of the Lviv scene told us they
expected Our Ukraine and BYuT to win a majority of the Lviv
oblast vote March 26, but that Our Ukraine's earlier 2-to-1
commanding lead over BYuT had slipped (reftel). Anatoli
Romanyuk, director of the Center for Political Studies, and
Andriy Pavlyshyn, editor of the Our Ukraine-friendly daily
Lvivska Hazeta, both estimated that Our Ukraine would capture
40% of the vote (down from 45%) while BYuT's share could rise
to as much as 23% (up from 18%). Lviv Committee of Voters of
Ukraine (CVU) head Roman Koshovy predicted a 40-to-20% vote
split between Our Ukraine and BYuT locally. Pavlyshyn, who
anchors a live, weekly political talk show on local TV,
predicted that Tymoshenko's BYuT would surge on election day
to beat Our Ukraine nationwide, capturing up to 23% of the
total vote, a view shared by other Lviv observers and pundits
who admire Tymoshenko's oratory skills.


3. (SBU) Tymoshenko visited the Lviv region March 17 in full
campaign mode. Media and eyewitness reports about the crowds
she attracted differed markedly. For example, the pro-BYuT
daily Vysoki Zamok said in a page one teaser headline
illustrated with a picture of Tymoshenko that she met with
"nearly 200,000 people" in three of the regions largest
cities: 30,000 in Striy, and 40,000 each in Drohobych and
Sambir. There was no account, however, of where she met with
the other 90,000. (Note: Vysoky Zamok, which is the leading
paper in the Lviv region, is owned by Stepan Kurpil, No. 36
on the BYuT ticket.) In contrast, the UNIAN wire service
reported a crowd of 10,000 in Drohobych, and an OSCE LTO who
attended the Tymoshenko Drohobych rally told us he observed a
lackluster crowd of about 5,000. Said one observer with a
wry smile: "It appears Mr. Kurpil may have added an extra
zero to the numbers."


4. (SBU) Next in line to capture the local vote are the
PORA-Party of Reforms and Order (PRP) with 5-7% and the
Socialists with 5%. According to Romanyuk, Rada Speaker's
Volodymyr Lytwyn,s block will likely poll less than three
percent in Lviv Oblast despite a concerted campaign effort
that included a one-day visit March 15. Romanyuk said Lytvyn
started campaigning early and heavily in Lviv, and at one
point was polling at about 7-8%. However, due to an unwise
use of campaign funds, lackluster ads and a campaign run
largely by old-style "hacks," Lytvyn's bloc had slipped,
Romanyuk said. Romanyuk complained about a "lifeless and
formulaic" campaign in which political forces engaged more in
marketing than voter education and civil society building.
Still, while the campaign might not be an ideal example of
democracy in action, this time around it was "free--free from
fear," he said.

Colorful Spring, even before the thaw
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5. (SBU) There were clear signs during our visit of
stepped-up campaigning wherever people gathered, walked and
shopped. In the Lviv city center, in the square running the
length of Freedom Avenue (Prospekt Svobody) and around Ivan
Franko University, dozens of pop-up campaign tents
representing a cross-section of political parties dotted the
streets. The center of Lviv and roads leading south to Stryi
and Drohobych were festooned with tens of thousands of
ribbons: Our Ukraine,s orange and BYuT's white emblazoned
with a red heart. When asked what the joining of the two
colors symbolized, some passersby opined it was a signal from
voters that Yushchenko and Tymoshenko should re-unite, though
others suspected one-upsmanship. Many Lvivites thought
prospects for a reunion were not high, while expressing voter
regret and disenchantment that the two key leaders of the
Orange Revolution remained split.

Local/Mayoral Race getting dirty
--------------


6. (SBU) According to Lviv CVU head Koshovy, the main change
in the past three weeks had been a "criminalization of the
campaign process" at the local level. Koshovy said he had
received reports about seven incidents involving campaign
workers for local elections, including two fires at campaign
offices, a beating, fist fights and one detention involving a
Green Party worker who had been harassed and let go. Clive
Jordan (please protect),the OSCE/ODIHR long-term observer
(LTO) for Lviv city and northern parts of the oblast, said he
had not heard of these specific incidents, but did not
discount them, since some of the people hired to plaster
campaign posters around the city were down-on-their-luck
types who often did a poor job and were out to make quick
money.


7. (SBU) Regarding Lviv's mayoral race, in which the two
primary candidates came from competing factions of Our
Ukraine (Anatoly Sadovoi slightly ahead of Vasyl Kuybida),
Jordan said that the reported violence may be more related to
competing business interests. "There,s a whole lot of money
at stake for the mayor,s job," he said, pointing to stories
that third-place mayoral candidate Petro Pysarchuk controlled
a number of city markets. (Note: Jordan was guarded in
talking at length about local elections because the OSCE
mandate is to only observe the parliamentary election.)
Thus, the battle for local office centered on who would get
what space and business licenses, he said

Election Administration
--------------


8. (SBU) ODIHR's LTO for southern Lviv oblast, Yale Trainer,
said his recent visits to some 25 polling stations showed an
overall improvement in voter lists, organization and
staffing, in comparison to several weeks ago, adding that the
increase in salaries from 17 to 50 hryvnyas per day for poll
workers was a welcome added boost. Because of the
predominance of Ukrainian in Lviv and the surrounding region,
Yale said there were fewer problems with double entry of
names and virtually no Russian-Ukrainian transliteration
problems.


9. (SBU) In contrast, both Romanyuk and Pavlyshyn said they
expected "chaos" on voting day because of the nearly
meter-long ballot for the Rada, combined with other ballots
for mayors, village councils, and raion and oblast councils.
The multiple ballots were likely to confuse and frustrate
voters. "Who knows how the ballots will be filled out?" one
local official running for a raion council asked rhetorically.

"Checkbook journalism" alive and well?
--------------


10. (SBU) With regard to press freedom, journalist Pavlyshyn
claimed that what existed now was a false sense of freedom of
the press. "Journalists are doing the same thing as before
(writing kompromat, mudslinging, etc.),only getting paid for
it," he commented. Pavlyshyn noted that his newspaper was
one of the few that publicized its code of ethics on its
website and explained its policy of how to recognize which
articles were paid-for "points of view" or public relations
pieces. (See www.gazeta.lviv.ua.) Comment: In other words,
"check-book journalism" has not disappeared from Ukraine's
media.


11. (U) Visit Embassy Kiev's classified website at:
www.state.sgov.gov/p/eur/kiev.
Herbst