SUDAN: DEPUTY SPEAKER ON SPLM NORTHERN SECTOR

C O N F I D E N T I A L KHARTOUM 000934 SIPDIS SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 04/17/2016 TAGS: PREL PGOV PINR SU SUBJECT: SUDAN: DEPUTY SPEAKER ON SPLM NORTHERN SECTOR PLANS Classified By: CG Juba: R. Whitehead, Reason: Section 1.4 (b) and (d) ¶1. (C) Summary: The National Assembly Deputy Speaker believes the greatest chance for national unity is for the SPLM to win a plurality in the 2008-09 national elections; the SPLM is shoring up its northern elements in preparation. The SPLM is studying the National Congress Party closely, and believes it has three factions that wish variously to accommodate, dominate, or separate from the South. End summary. ¶2. (C) Atem Garang Deng Dekeuk, Deputy Speaker of the National Assembly, believes that the best hope for the unity of Sudan is for the SPLM to take at least a plurality in the 2008-09 elections. He admitted that with the death of John Garang, the movement does not have a strong candidate for president. Dekeuk, a Dinka who has lived in Khartoum for many years and was close to Garang, told Embassy PolOff that he strongly supports unity, but realizes the SPLM has a long way to go in a short time to accomplish this goal. He said that the SPLM initially planned to join with Sadiq al-Mahdi,s Umma Party and tap into its established grass-roots system, but al-Mahdi refused to accept the CPA unconditionally, which is the SPLM s cornerstone. ¶3. (C) Dekeuk explained that plans were under way to quickly ramp up the SPLM,s northern presence following the April 2-5 politburo meeting in Rumbek. The SPLM will soon launch its own newspaper and a radio station to get out the party message. While there are several newspapers that are generally pro-SPLM, Dekeuk was concerned that the articles slanted toward separation. The SPLM Northern sector wants to convince northerners that the SPLM can be the champion for all marginalized people, while showing the southerners that most northern Sudanese have suffered at the hands of the Khartoum-based governments. Dekeuk wants the other southerners to know that the Arabs are not their enemy, and that the south has been oppressed by a small group of Arabs who do not enjoy popular support in the north. He believes this message will attract supporters in the north while convincing the southerners that separation is not necessary. ¶4. (C) Dekeuk also said that the SPLM was trying to figure out the internal dynamics of the ruling National Congress party. The SPLM believes that there are three factions in the NCP: one that genuinely wants to implement the CPA, one that wants to get rid of the CPA and continue to dominate the south as in the past, and a fundamentalist faction that just wants the south to separate so that the North can establish a purer Islamic state. Dekuek thinks that Vice President Ali Osman Taha is leading the first faction, but does not have much influence right now. He thinks the second faction is led by Assistant to the President Nafie Ali Nafie, and he has no idea who is leading the third group. STEINFELD