CHAD-SUDAN BORDER QUIET, TENSE

C O N F I D E N T I A L KHARTOUM 000925 SIPDIS SIPDIS C O R R E C T E D C O P Y - TEXT ON SECTION 01 E.O. 12958: DECL: 04/16/2016 TAGS: PGOV MOPS MASS PHUM PINR CD AU SU SUBJECT: CHAD-SUDAN BORDER QUIET, TENSE REF: KHARTOUM 895 Classified By: Political Officer Ron Capps for reasons 1.4 b and d. -------------- Summary -------------- ¶1. (C) The situation along the Chad-Sudan border was reported quiet on April 16 and 17. Chadian opposition forces are reported on both sides of the border, with those inside Sudan reportedly receiving ammunition and vehicle re-supply from the Government of Sudan. From all appearances, Government of Sudan security forces were involved in the attack on Adre on April 13. Reports of large-scale refugee and IDP movements appear to be false. End Summary. -------------- The First Report is Always Wrong -------------- ¶2. (SBU) Reports from NGOs in West Darfur that the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) fired upon rebel forces returning from Chad on April 13 (reftel) appear now to be wrong. The shelling reported by NGOs and African Union Mission in Sudan military observers (AMIS MILOBS) was, according to United Nations security officers, fired in support of Chadian rebels attacking the town of Adre. The UN believes the rebels were engaged by Chadian armed forces (FAT) before reaching the border, meaning that the artillery probably fell on Sudanese territory rather than into Chad. This would seem to support the assertions by AMIS milobs that throughout the morning, the impact of the artillery rounds seemed to be coming closer in to El Geneina. -------------- Some Chadian Opposition Returning to Sudan -------------- ¶3. (C) An AMIS contact says El Geneina residents have stated that Chadian rebels allied with the Forces United for Change (FUC) returned to Sudan during the night of April 15 and have been re-arming with support from the "military intelligence." UN security analysts report that Chadian opposition forces are present near Um Sariyah, Wadi Assum, and Mournei in West Darfur. Local Darfurian contacts reported that that SAF conducted an ammunition re-supply mission to El Geneina airfield on April 15, and that ammunition was given to Chadian opposition forces. ¶4. (C) Other UN sources reported that not all of the elements of the armed opposition took part in the attempted coup. The UN report claims that Zaghawa fighters who have broken with Deby - the SCUD - were not part of the fighting but remained in their training camps near Kulbus through Thursday. -------------- Was the GOS Involved? -------------- ¶5. (C) A restricted United Nations report claims that the acting Wali of West Darfur "proudly announced on Thursday morning that the Chadian opposition would be control of Chad by the afternoon." UN officials reported that Sudanese security officials watched much of the fighting from the rooftop of the police headquarters building in El Geneina. Apparently, the Wali, Deputy Wali, and Chief of National Security for West Darfur are all out of the region. ¶6. (C) The same report claims that SAF forces took part in the attack on Adre and the "national security has been involved in bringing the injured back from the failed attack: they have covered themselves by dressing the wounded in jalabias." Seventy wounded were reportedly treated at the El Geneina hospital and later evacuated to Khartoum. -------------- Failed Coordination -------------- ¶7. (C) It appears the Adre attack was designed to be coordinated with the incursions into N'Djamena and the FUC mechanized column's dash from Mongo; perhaps as a fixing attack - one to insure the troops in Adre could not be used to reinforce another garrison - or perhaps simply to seize several areas simultaneously. -------------- What Next? -------------- ¶8. (C) Senior, non-Arab tribal leaders in West Darfur believe the Chadian opposition will regroup for another try at the Capital before the scheduled May 3 elections. If the reports of opposition troops re-arming in Darfur are accurate, this would appear to be an correct assessment. -------------- General Security and Humanitarian Situation -------------- ¶9. (U) USAID partners report the situation generally calm in and to the south of El Geneina. One USAID partner reported that the road from El Geneina to Masteri was unsafe, and the partner evacuated staff from Masteri in recent days. According to USAID partners on the ground, Habila is calm, although travel is only safe east to Mornei. The road south to Foro Boranga and the Chadian border is considered too dangerous. Beida, Kongo Haraza, and Ararah are open to UN air traffic. USAID partners reports that during the last few weeks, approximately 6000 Chadians have entered Habila locality, with approximately 1800 in Habila town and others in villages such as Gobe, Taweng, and Abu Dahiya. According to humanitarian aid agencies, an April 17 report that 15000 Sudanese and Chadian displaced persons had moved in recent days is untrue. STEINFELD