Juba Shows Signs of Inflation in March

UNCLAS KHARTOUM 000817

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: ECON PREF SOCI PINR SU
SUBJECT: Juba Shows Signs of Inflation in March

1. A market survey in Juba taken the second week of
March shows some signs of inflationary tendencies.
Overall prices jumped nearly 8 points from a similar
survey taken in February. Food and beverages led the way

with a rise of 8.5 percent, although this was partially
offset by a small decrease in the household goods sector.
Apparel also saw a small rise, with prices in the
transportation and entertainment sectors remaining level.


2. The rise in prices could be attributed to an erratic
and undeveloped supply chain, as well as increased
insecurity on the Yei-Juba road (most goods are trucked
in through from Uganda through Yei). The current survey
was taken before the rains began to effect road travel,
so another increase in April is expected.


3. This does not necessarily translate to an 8 percent
rise in the real cost of living in Juba, as there is a
high degree of flexibility in purchasing patterns, and
many households are completely outside the monetary
economy, relying solely on bartering and subsistence
farming.


4. Methodology: A local employee of the USG completed
the price survey. Prices of goods were then adjusted
based upon an estimation of the frequency of purchase for
an average family of four in one month. Due to the ad
hoc nature of data collection, these numbers are only
intended to be used as a general guide to capture market
conditions in Juba. Figures should not be compared to
other inflation indexes. Furthermore, because prices are
so low and the basket of goods for an average household
so limited, small changes in pricing will lead to a
larger percentage change than in more developed economies
with broader selections of goods available. Once it is
fully operational, the Bank of Southern Sudan plans to do
a more precise and detailed consumer price index.

STEINFELD