SUDAN: MISSERYA OFFER DINKA ABYEI ADMINISTRATION

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 KHARTOUM 000317 SIPDIS SIPDIS DEPT FOR AF/SPG AND AF/RSA E.O. 12958: DECL: 02/09/2016 TAGS: PGOV PREF SOCI SU SUBJECT: SUDAN: MISSERYA OFFER DINKA ABYEI ADMINISTRATION TO GIVE UP BORDER REF: A. KHARTOUM 00229 ¶B. 05 KHARTOUM 02154 ¶C. 05 KHARTOUM 02140 Classified By: P/E Chief E. Whitaker, Reason: Section 1.4 (b) and (d) ¶1. (C) Summary: Misserya tribal leaders from Muglad recently traveled to Abyei to offer the Ngok Dinka all Abyei administration positions in return for not demanding implementation of the Abyei Boundaries Commission (ABC) finding, according to UNMIS contacts. The proposal follows weeks of mutual accusations between the National Congress Party (NCP) and Sudanese Peoples' Liberation Movement (SPLM) over lack of implementation of the Abyei Protocol, and comes a week before the Presidency will meet on the issue. While the situation in Abyei is reported to be stable, government-backed efforts at tribal reconciliation have not had the local buy-in necessary to solidify that stability. ¶2. (C) Appointing an administration could perhaps buy more time, but the border issue remains a zero-sum game in the eyes of both tribes and the two parties that will ultimately decide the issue through the Presidency. Further raising the stakes, a commission must be appointed in July 2008 to identify residents of Abyei eligible to vote in the referendum that could make the ABC line an international boundary in 2011. Both sides look to the United States, as perceived authors of the Abyei Protocol, for backing and a way out. End summary. -------------- -------------- Misserya Propose Deal Amidst Accusations Over Abyei -------------- -------------- ¶2. (C) An UNMIS contact covering Abyei reported to Poloff that the Misserya leadership in Muglad has proposed a deal to Ngok Dinka Paramount Chief Emir Kuol Deng in Abyei to break the deadlock over the Abyei Protocol. They proposed that the Ngok Dinka take all of the positions in the Abyei administration in return for giving up on the mid-2005 finding of the Abyei Boundaries Commission (ABC). A de facto border would likely fall just North of Abyei town for purposes of administration until a new agreement was forged on the border issue. Emir Kuol responded favorably, the UNMIS officer reported, but other Ngok will be furious if this plan goes forward, as it disregards the &final and binding8 status of the ABC finding. Comment: were it to be confirmed publicly, the SPLM would almost certainly reject the proposal through the Presidency for the same reason. End comment. ¶3. (U) The proposal comes as the SPLM and NCP exchange accusations over why the expected announcement of an Abyei administration on January 9 did not occur. The public spate began on January 14, when the Deputy Governor of South Kordofan (and National Islamic Front hard-liner) Issa Bashari, went to Abyei and declared that Abyei was part of South Kordofan, which would appoint the local Abyei administration. In the following days, the SPLM organized a political rally in Abyei town protesting the speech, and Emir Kuol led a march to the UNMIS Field Office to present a letter of protest. South Kordofan Governor Ismail Jallab (SPLM) traveled to Khartoum shortly thereafter to complain to First VP Salva Kiir that the Deputy Governor was controlling the situation on the ground. When Kiir announced that Abyei is not part of South Kordofan and the SPLM may seek international arbitration (Ref A),Assistant to the President Nafie Ali Nafie responded immediately that the ABC report should be rejected as having exceeded its mandate. The three member Presidency is set to meet the week of February 12 to review CPA implementation, and the ABC issue will be a top agenda item. -------------- Abyei Stable, but Controlled from the North -------------- ¶4. (SBU) The situation in Abyei is reported to be stable by the UNDP Rule of Law representative there, who has good local contacts. However, he reports (and the UNMIS Abyei office confirmed) that National Intelligence and Security Services (NISS) has renewed restrictions of movement imposed on the UN and NGOs by requiring permits for any travel north of Abyei town. As this violates the Status of Forces Agreement (SOFA) between the UN and Sudan, no UN actors have requested permits, and there has been little monitoring or patrolling north of town since early January. The UNDP rep reports that Abyei continues to be governed as a province of Southern Kordofan. Acting Commissioner for Abyei, Ibrahim Mohamed Elamin, based in Muglad, and his police commander have been KHARTOUM 00000317 002 OF 002 visiting Abyei regularly, but the administration of Abyei remains in flux without implementation of the Abyei Protocol or deployment of the Joint Integrated Units (Ref B). -------------- Attempts at Tribal Reconciliation Lacking -------------- ¶5. (U) On January 28, the Council for International People,s Friendship hosted a preparatory workshop for a Peaceful Coexistence Conference among the Rezeigat, Dinka, and Misserya. The all-day session was chaired by Ahmed Abd al-Rahman, along with Presidential Advisors Bona Malwal and Abdalla al-Massar, who is also head of the Rezeigat Massar (Rezeigat from Northern Darfur); it was funded by the Presidency. The workshop focused on customary law, including blood money amounts among the tribes, IDP returns, and development. The full conference is scheduled for March 14 in Aweil in Northern Bahr El Ghazal state, with an expected 1200 people from the three tribes. In preparation, a group of Rezeigat and non-Ngok Dinka from Northern Bahr El Ghazal will travel to Abyei to facilitate Ngok Dinka-Misserya discussions. ¶6. (C) More notable than the papers discussed, however, was the non-attendance of Rezeigat Madibu from South Darfur, who are actually a part of the band of Arab-African boundaries where tensions persist. Invited Misserya leaders from Kadugli did not attend either, with prominent Misserya from Khartoum there in force instead. Finally, the guest of honor, Ngok Paramount Chief Emir Kuol Deng, did not participate. The UNMIS officer covering Abyei reported to Poloff that Emir Kuol had fled to Agok, South of the River Kiir, spreading the rumor that the NISS had summoned him to Khartoum, but he has since returned to Abyei town. -------------- Comment -------------- ¶7. (C) Despite SPLM accusations that the NCP is instigating the Misserya to reject the ABC report and scuttle the CPA, Misserya ) including leaders in Abyei and from the opposition Umma Party in Khartoum ) need no convincing that the ABC is a grab of their ancestral land. Indeed, they would blame the NCP along with the SPLM should the Presidency announce endorsement of the ABC report. In such an event, though they promise war, it is not clear how or toward whom the Misserya might direct their aggression. On the Ngok side, the offer of a fully Ngok administration means little if the border issue is not resolved, and Emir Kuol, who has traditionally been NCP, is now either playing both sides or feels trapped in the middle. With the possibility that the ABC line will become an international border in 2011, it remains a zero sum game. For these reasons, the UNMIS Officer in Charge in Abyei privately expressed relief that the Presidency has not yet demarcated the boundary in line with the ABC finding. ¶8. (C) While the opportunity for compromise appears limited, the current deadlock is unsustainable as IDPs return to harsh conditions (Ref C) and the SPLM leaders vent their frustration. Appointing an administration may buy time, though it will not satisfy many Ngok. The next major step in the Abyei Protocol is then the appointment of the Abyei Referendum Commission, shortly after July 2008, which will determine who is an Abyei &resident8 eligible to vote in the 2011 referendum on whether to remain a special administrative area or join Bahr El Ghazal state in the South; the border issue is sure to influence the formation of this commission. As tribal leaders on both sides see the Abyei Protocol and the ABC report as essentially American drafted documents, they look to the United States for backing and a way out. End comment. HUME