SUDAN: MISSERYA OFFER DINKA ABYEI ADMINISTRATION

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 KHARTOUM 000317

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

DEPT FOR AF/SPG AND AF/RSA

E.O. 12958: DECL: 02/09/2016
TAGS: PGOV PREF SOCI SU
SUBJECT: SUDAN: MISSERYA OFFER DINKA ABYEI ADMINISTRATION
TO GIVE UP BORDER

REF: A. KHARTOUM 00229

B. 05 KHARTOUM 02154

C. 05 KHARTOUM 02140

Classified By: P/E Chief E. Whitaker, Reason: Section 1.4 (b) and (d)


1. (C) Summary: Misserya tribal leaders from Muglad recently
traveled to Abyei to offer the Ngok Dinka all Abyei
administration positions in return for not demanding
implementation of the Abyei Boundaries Commission (ABC)
finding, according to UNMIS contacts. The proposal follows
weeks of mutual accusations between the National Congress
Party (NCP) and Sudanese Peoples' Liberation Movement (SPLM)
over lack of implementation of the Abyei Protocol, and comes
a week before the Presidency will meet on the issue. While
the situation in Abyei is reported to be stable,
government-backed efforts at tribal reconciliation have not
had the local buy-in necessary to solidify that stability.


2. (C) Appointing an administration could perhaps buy more
time, but the border issue remains a zero-sum game in the
eyes of both tribes and the two parties that will ultimately
decide the issue through the Presidency. Further raising the
stakes, a commission must be appointed in July 2008 to
identify residents of Abyei eligible to vote in the
referendum that could make the ABC line an international
boundary in 2011. Both sides look to the United States, as
perceived authors of the Abyei Protocol, for backing and a
way out. End summary.

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Misserya Propose Deal Amidst Accusations Over Abyei
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2. (C) An UNMIS contact covering Abyei reported to Poloff
that the Misserya leadership in Muglad has proposed a deal to
Ngok Dinka Paramount Chief Emir Kuol Deng in Abyei to break
the deadlock over the Abyei Protocol. They proposed that the
Ngok Dinka take all of the positions in the Abyei
administration in return for giving up on the mid-2005
finding of the Abyei Boundaries Commission (ABC). A de facto
border would likely fall just North of Abyei town for
purposes of administration until a new agreement was forged
on the border issue. Emir Kuol responded favorably, the
UNMIS officer reported, but other Ngok will be furious if
this plan goes forward, as it disregards the &final and
binding8 status of the ABC finding. Comment: were it to be
confirmed publicly, the SPLM would almost certainly reject
the proposal through the Presidency for the same reason. End
comment.


3. (U) The proposal comes as the SPLM and NCP exchange
accusations over why the expected announcement of an Abyei
administration on January 9 did not occur. The public spate
began on January 14, when the Deputy Governor of South
Kordofan (and National Islamic Front hard-liner) Issa
Bashari, went to Abyei and declared that Abyei was part of
South Kordofan, which would appoint the local Abyei
administration. In the following days, the SPLM organized a
political rally in Abyei town protesting the speech, and Emir
Kuol led a march to the UNMIS Field Office to present a
letter of protest. South Kordofan Governor Ismail Jallab
(SPLM) traveled to Khartoum shortly thereafter to complain to
First VP Salva Kiir that the Deputy Governor was controlling
the situation on the ground. When Kiir announced that Abyei
is not part of South Kordofan and the SPLM may seek
international arbitration (Ref A),Assistant to the President
Nafie Ali Nafie responded immediately that the ABC report
should be rejected as having exceeded its mandate. The three
member Presidency is set to meet the week of February 12 to
review CPA implementation, and the ABC issue will be a top
agenda item.

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Abyei Stable, but Controlled from the North
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4. (SBU) The situation in Abyei is reported to be stable by
the UNDP Rule of Law representative there, who has good local
contacts. However, he reports (and the UNMIS Abyei office
confirmed) that National Intelligence and Security Services
(NISS) has renewed restrictions of movement imposed on the UN
and NGOs by requiring permits for any travel north of Abyei
town. As this violates the Status of Forces Agreement (SOFA)
between the UN and Sudan, no UN actors have requested
permits, and there has been little monitoring or patrolling
north of town since early January. The UNDP rep reports that
Abyei continues to be governed as a province of Southern
Kordofan. Acting Commissioner for Abyei, Ibrahim Mohamed
Elamin, based in Muglad, and his police commander have been

KHARTOUM 00000317 002 OF 002


visiting Abyei regularly, but the administration of Abyei
remains in flux without implementation of the Abyei Protocol
or deployment of the Joint Integrated Units (Ref B).

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Attempts at Tribal Reconciliation Lacking
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5. (U) On January 28, the Council for International People,s
Friendship hosted a preparatory workshop for a Peaceful
Coexistence Conference among the Rezeigat, Dinka, and
Misserya. The all-day session was chaired by Ahmed Abd
al-Rahman, along with Presidential Advisors Bona Malwal and
Abdalla al-Massar, who is also head of the Rezeigat Massar
(Rezeigat from Northern Darfur); it was funded by the
Presidency. The workshop focused on customary law, including
blood money amounts among the tribes, IDP returns, and
development. The full conference is scheduled for March 14
in Aweil in Northern Bahr El Ghazal state, with an expected
1200 people from the three tribes. In preparation, a group
of Rezeigat and non-Ngok Dinka from Northern Bahr El Ghazal
will travel to Abyei to facilitate Ngok Dinka-Misserya
discussions.


6. (C) More notable than the papers discussed, however, was
the non-attendance of Rezeigat Madibu from South Darfur, who
are actually a part of the band of Arab-African boundaries
where tensions persist. Invited Misserya leaders from
Kadugli did not attend either, with prominent Misserya from
Khartoum there in force instead. Finally, the guest of
honor, Ngok Paramount Chief Emir Kuol Deng, did not
participate. The UNMIS officer covering Abyei reported to
Poloff that Emir Kuol had fled to Agok, South of the River
Kiir, spreading the rumor that the NISS had summoned him to
Khartoum, but he has since returned to Abyei town.

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Comment
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7. (C) Despite SPLM accusations that the NCP is instigating
the Misserya to reject the ABC report and scuttle the CPA,
Misserya ) including leaders in Abyei and from the
opposition Umma Party in Khartoum ) need no convincing that
the ABC is a grab of their ancestral land. Indeed, they
would blame the NCP along with the SPLM should the Presidency
announce endorsement of the ABC report. In such an event,
though they promise war, it is not clear how or toward whom
the Misserya might direct their aggression. On the Ngok
side, the offer of a fully Ngok administration means little
if the border issue is not resolved, and Emir Kuol, who has
traditionally been NCP, is now either playing both sides or
feels trapped in the middle. With the possibility that the
ABC line will become an international border in 2011, it
remains a zero sum game. For these reasons, the UNMIS
Officer in Charge in Abyei privately expressed relief that
the Presidency has not yet demarcated the boundary in line
with the ABC finding.


8. (C) While the opportunity for compromise appears limited,
the current deadlock is unsustainable as IDPs return to harsh
conditions (Ref C) and the SPLM leaders vent their
frustration. Appointing an administration may buy time,
though it will not satisfy many Ngok. The next major step in
the Abyei Protocol is then the appointment of the Abyei
Referendum Commission, shortly after July 2008, which will
determine who is an Abyei &resident8 eligible to vote in
the 2011 referendum on whether to remain a special
administrative area or join Bahr El Ghazal state in the
South; the border issue is sure to influence the formation of
this commission. As tribal leaders on both sides see the
Abyei Protocol and the ABC report as essentially American
drafted documents, they look to the United States for backing
and a way out. End comment.
HUME