DARFUR: UN STATES HUMANITARIAN STRUCTURE ON THE

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 KHARTOUM 002892

SIPDIS

AIDAC
SIPDIS

STATE FOR A/S FRAZER, AF/SPG, AF/RSA, AND PRM
STATE PLS PASS USAID/W
USAID FOR DCHA SUDAN TEAM, AFR/SP
NAIROBI FOR USAID/DCHA/OFDA, USAID/REDSO, AND FAS
GENEVA FOR NKYLOH
NAIROBI FOR SFO
NSC FOR PITTMAN, PMARCHAM, MMAGAN, AND TSHORTLEY
ADDIS ABABA FOR USAU
USUN FOR TMALY
BRUSSELS FOR PLERNER

E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/20/2016
TAGS: EAID PREF PHUM SOCI PGOV PREL SU UN
SUBJECT: DARFUR: UN STATES HUMANITARIAN STRUCTURE ON THE
BRINK

REF: A. KHARTOUM 02875


B. KHARTOUM 02876

C. KHARTOUM 02879

Classified By: CDA Cameron Hume, Reason: Section 1.4 (b) and (d)


1. (C) Summary: During a December 21 meeting with Charge
Hume, Deputy Special Representative of the Secretary General
(DSRSG) for the United Nations (UN) in Sudan Manuel d,Silva
and Deputy Director for Sudan of the UN Office for the
Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs (UNOCHA) Michael
McDonagh discussed the significant impact of recent
insecurity in Gereida, South Darfur, and a conversation
between CDA Hume and the State Minister for Foreign Affairs
Ali Karti that morning (Karti meeting reported septel). The
UN feels that the humanitarian structure in Darfur is on the
brink, that the Sudanese Government is in denial of the real
situation, and that the next three months will determine
whether or not humanitarian activities can continue. End
summary.

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Gereida Attacks ) UN Holds SLA/Minawi Responsible
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2. (C) The UN holds the Sudan Liberation Army/Minni Minawi
(SLA/Minawi) responsible for the attacks on the Action Contre
la Faim (ACF) and Oxfam compounds in Gereida (Ref B).
Gereida is in an area controlled by SLA/Minawi. In the
opinion of both d,Silva and McDonagh, Minni Minawi is
therefore responsible under international law for this attack
on humanitarian workers. The UN,s theory is that National
Redemption Front (NRF) elements carried out the attack with
the consent of SLA/Minawi. A UN helicopter approaching
Gereida on the morning of December 21 sighted several of the
stolen vehicles not far from the town, clearly within
SLA/Minawi-controlled territory. The two vehicles taken from
the International Committee of the Red Cross (ICRC) were
returned to the organization 20 minutes later. Also returned
to the ICRC was a computer stolen from one of the raided
international non-governmental organizations (NGO). The
rapid return of the vehicles while the attack on the NGOs was
ongoing suggests the perpetrators were not in a hurry to
escape. Per Ref B, when the African Union Mission in Sudan
(AMIS) troops returned to the ACF compound with SLA/Minawi
elements to escort staff to the helicopter, the NGO,s staff
recognized several of the SLA/Minawi escorts from the raid of
the previous night.


3. (C) D,Silva believes that the NRF can operate in
SLA/Minawi territory without hostilities. The NRF,s recent
attack on Abu Jabra near the border with South Kordofan
demonstrated that a modus operandi exists. The DSRSG
believes that Minni Minawi is preparing to abandon the Darfur
Peace Agreement (DPA),and has informed his supporters to
jump ship and join the NRF in advance of him to avoid being
arrested by the Sudanese Government.


4. (SBU) The agencies targeted in the attack provided the
most critical humanitarian services to the internally
displaced population (IDP). Per Ref B, Oxfam provides water,
sanitation, and hygiene services and ACF conducts food
distributions to the 128,000 inhabitants of the Gereida IDP
camp. UNOCHA expressed concern that without these essential
services, humanitarian conditions in the camp would decrease
significantly. The current estimate is that food supplies
would be depleted in one to two months.

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Expatriate Humanitarian Raped, Tripwires Crossed
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5. (C) The recent targeting of humanitarian workers crosses a
new security threshold. One Oxfam staffer found a bullet in
his pocket, where it had become caught in the cloth.
According to UN sources, an ACF expatriate staff member was
raped, allegedly by the local SLA/Minawi commander. (Note:
ACF denied this to USAID staff in Khartoum, but confirmed it
with USAID staff in Nyala. End note.) The victim is in the

KHARTOUM 00002892 002 OF 003


process of being repatriated, and is expected to leave Sudan
on December 23. An ACF press release is anticipated.


6. (C) DSRSG revealed that the UN is reflecting on its
tripwires for pull out. The situation in El Geneina and
events in Gereida over the past three weeks represent a
severe deterioration of the security situation. D,Silva
indicated that if the situation did not change in three
months, the UN may pull out everyone. Should that occur,
DSRSG indicated that all humanitarian agencies (UN and NGO)
should withdraw from Darfur - an all or nothing approach.
Humanitarian programming in Darfur could continue to provide
"bread and butter" services (food, water, and health
services) without expatriate staff; however, the humanitarian
protection situation would significantly deteriorate without
international witnesses. UNOCHA stated that if there is no
improvement in the security situation within the next couple
of months, it might not be necessary for the Sudanese
Government to seek the departure of remaining NGOs overtly.

-------------- --
Government Responsible for Chaos in West Darfur
-------------- --


7. (C) Regarding West Darfur, the DSRSG indicated that he
holds the Sudanese Government responsible for the situation.
On December 15, thieves stole two NGO vehicles in the El
Geneina market. This reportedly followed celebratory
shooting around town by Arab militia returning from Chad.
Stray bullets hit several humanitarian compounds; no injuries
occurred. The next day, Wali Jaffar Abdul al Haq fired
Deputy Wali Mohamed Yusef Al Tilib. Tilib,s constituency is
the Arab population of West Darfur. That same day a USAID
partner reported that the National Intelligence and Security
Service (NISS) informed the UN that the Sudanese Government
could not provide security to humanitarian workers and NGOs
should thus depart El Geneina. The Sudanese Government has
put in place vehicle restrictions in El Geneina preventing UN
and NGO movements except by taxi. One USAID partner has
indicated that it is unable to implement water, sanitation,
and hygiene projects because it can move neither staff nor
materials around the town. The duration of these
restrictions is unknown.

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Sudanese Government Fragile
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8. (C) The DSRSG asserted that the Khartoum regime is under
significant stress. He believes that if the NGOs pulled out
of Darfur and there was vigorous action on the part of the
international community, the Sudanese Government would not
survive. The DSRSG indicated that the Sudanese Government is
concerned about the possibility of an Afghanistan or
Bosnia-Herzegovina-type scenario where rebel groups on the
ground are provided international AIR support. He also
stated that he has told the Sudanese Government that thus far
the rebels in Darfur have never received direct support from
the West, but the situation could change. McDonagh
characterizes IDPs, current situation as a "slow death," in
which populations are fed so that they can be raped and
subjected to psychological torture. If asked, IDPs would
request protection above all other humanitarian services.
The DSRSG stated that "we should set a date for withdrawal
and step up the rhetoric" in order to get the Sudanese
Government to implement agreements on an AU-UN protection
force deployment.

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Comment
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9. (C) The atomization of Darfur continues, with Sudanese
Government structures appearing to break down in North and
West Darfur, and elements of the SLA/Minawi faction are
re-supplying themselves. If indeed the UN,s interpretation
of events in Gereida is correct, the safe operating havens in
which NGOs and UN agencies have operated will constrict
humanitarian space severely. The rape of the international

KHARTOUM 00002892 003 OF 003


NGO worker is the first reported deliberate attack upon an
expatriate in Darfur. This singular event has caused
humanitarian agencies to critically re-evaluate their
situation and needs.
HUME