SOUTHERN SUDAN: CLASH BETWEEN SPLA AND ARMED

C O N F I D E N T I A L KHARTOUM 002700 SIPDIS SIPDIS DEPT FOR AF/SPG E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/19/2016 TAGS: PGOV CASC MARR SU SUBJECT: SOUTHERN SUDAN: CLASH BETWEEN SPLA AND ARMED GROUP IN JUBA LEAVES TWO DEAD REF: KHARTOUM 2682 Classified By: P/E CHIEF ERIC WHITAKER FOR REASON: 1.4(b) and (d) ¶1. (U) A November 16 shooting on the edge of Juba resulted in two persons dying and approximately five being wounded in the latest incident of violence in Southern Sudan. The incident involved a Sudan People's Liberation Army (SPLA) unit and another unidentified military or para-military unit. Shooting erupted at approximately 4:00 a.m. on November 16 at a location near the Customs Market, on the western outskirts of Juba approximately two kilometers from the Southern Sudan Legislative Assembly and other government offices. ¶2. (C) Details of the incident remain sketchy. Brigadier General Malual Majok, head of military intelligence for the SPLA, told ConGen that an unidentified armed group obtained weapons and ammunition from Sudan Armed Forces (SAF) elements in the Joint Integrated Units (JIU) barracks in Juba on November 14. The SPLA monitored the delivery of these weapons to a house on the outskirts of Juba, Malual claimed. In the early morning hours of November 16, Malual says, the vehicle was "re-loaded" with munitions and sent to the same house. ¶3. (C) Two SPLA soldiers stopped the vehicle as it approached the house, Malual claimed, and shooting began. Two people died in the ensuing shootout. Other men in military uniforms were in the house containing the weapons, and those individuals also engaged in shooting during the incident. According to a neighbor, one of the men inside the house died at that location. A second dead man, also in uniform, was found at a nearby primary school. A USG driver saw two bodies in a police pickup truck being transported to the morgue hours after the incident. Both were in military camouflage uniforms. SPLA soldiers at the site of the incident later told PolOff the dead were in "SAF uniforms." However, the identity of the dead men, and their military affiliation to any military group, has not been established. ¶4. (C) Malual declined to speculate on which group was involved in this incident. UN security officials, however, claim the group is composed of elements of the former Equatoria Defence Force (EDF). The EDF was a militia backed by the Government of Sudan prior to the signing of the Comprehensive Peace Agreement (CPA). Most members of the EDF joined the SPLA before the CPA was signed, and some ex-EDF officials now hold senior posts in both the SPLA and the Government of Southern Sudan. However, other members of the EDF refused to join the SPLA. Some of these so-called "drop-outs" reportedly were incorporated into SAF units, and others remain outside both SAF and the SPLA. In recent weeks SPLA and GoSS officials have repeatedly claimed that the SAF continues to pay ex-members of the EDF through SAF units in the JIUs, and that these individuals have retained their weapons. The EDF also has a history of close collaboration with the Ugandan rebel group Lord's Resistance Army (LRA). ¶5. (U) Overall, the UN reported that there have been 110 deaths, 24 road ambushes, and 6-7 attacks on villages near Juba since the upsurge in violence began in mid-October. ¶6. (C) Malual also told ConGen that the 15 "SAF" soldiers arrested following the mid-October attacks in the area of Gumba, across the Nile from Juba, have been turned over to SAF through the JIU (reftel). -------------- Comment -------------- ¶7. (C) The violence in and around Juba since mid-October has been attributed to several factors, including: 1) Northern efforts to destabilize the Southern capital through the EDF, LRA, or other armed proxies; 2) commercial sabotage by Northern merchants and SAF military-owned businesses; 3) criminal gangs, perhaps working for hire; 4) rivalries within the SPLA -- particularly between "mainstream" SPLA and ex-militia units; and/or 5) rivalries between the SPLA and SAF. All these theories have degrees of plausibility and evidence; the truth likely contains a mixture of these elements. Insecurity in the South is likely to be a major agenda item when Sudanese President Omar al-Bashir makes his scheduled second visit to Juba November 18. HUME