SPLM'S ALOR IDENTIFIES NCP INNER CIRCLE FOR NATSIOS

C O N F I D E N T I A L KHARTOUM 002565 SIPDIS SIPDIS DEPT FOR AF/SE AND AF/SPG E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/17/2016 TAGS: PREL PGOV KPKO UN SU SUBJECT: SPLM'S ALOR IDENTIFIES NCP INNER CIRCLE FOR NATSIOS Classified By: P/E Officer Michael Honigstein, Reason: Section 1.4 (b) and (d) ¶1. (C) In a meeting with Special Presidential Envoy (SPE) Andrew Natsios on October 14, Minister for Cabinet Affairs Deng Alor said policy change would come from President Omar al-Bashir's inner circle, led by Presidential Advisor Nafie al Nafie. He recommended getting African and Arab nations, especially Egypt, Saudi Arabia and Nigeria, to press for a UN transition. Alor also said that following a series of military defeats in Darfur, the NCP approached Janjaweed leader Musa Hilal for increased support but Hilal had held out, demanding more power and money for his continued assistance. -------------- -------------- Alor: Pressure Must Come From Sudanese Allies and Within -------------- -------------- ¶2. (C) Deng Alor explained that the real decision on UN transition would come from Bashir's current inner circle, which Alor speculated was led by Nafie and included Presidential Advisor Ghazi Salah-Addin, Minister of Defense Abdul-Rahim Mohamed Hussein, Minister of the Interior Al-Zabair Bashir Taha, and Minister of Presidential Affairs Bakri Hassan Saleh. When asked about Petroleum Minister Hassan al-Jaz, Alor noted that al-Jaz is important to the Islamists, but seen as too close to Vice President Taha. ¶3. (C) The allies that have the most influence with President Bashir, according to Alor, are Egypt, Saudi Arabia, Syria, Yemen, and Jordan. He also thinks pressure from the Africans, especially Nigeria, would help. Alor added that Bashir returned from his recent meetings in New York with a softer stand. On a subsequent stop in Cairo, Mubarak reportedly told Bashir not to fight the international community and asked whether Bashir really trusts his advisors. In response to a question from Natsios, Alor explained that China and India are not getting involved, and State Minister for Foreign Affairs Ali Karti failed to secure more active support on his recent trip to Beijing. ¶4. (C) The government realizes the situation on the ground in Darfur is getting worse, Alor said, and after a series of military setbacks the GoS reportedly asked Janjaweed leader Musa Hilal for additional support. Alor heard that Hilal had held out helping unless the GoS gave him political power and a wealth sharing deal as they had done with the rebels. ¶5. (U) SE Natsios cleared on this cable. EWHITAKER